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10 Insights to the 2024 NFL Schedule Release (Fantasy Football)

May 17, 2024
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The NFL is incredible at milking every single opportunity for publicity and pomp. Think about how millions of people watch the commissioner read names off a piece of paper. No other sport has its schedule released as a sort of holiday. I love baseball but 162 games don’t have the same flair as 17 games we already knew existed. But the order! The order is everything, Kyle!

Every year the NFL schedule is a puzzle and now we have the last piece of information we needed to start officially projecting: the order. We knew the who but now the when allows just to tighten some of our preconceived notions of how we draft for fantasy.

We analyze the schedule on the Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast episode as well as initial takes with  Win Totals & Schedule-Adjusted Forecasting for 2024 and an early under we took on the Commanders.

Last year’s Ten Insights article nailed some early streaming options and beneficial schedules to pounce on in your fantasy drafts. There is still so much we don’t know regarding depth charts and situations as I explained last year in Slow Down Buddy: Navigating Winners & Losers After the NFL Draft.

I’ll count down ten insights starting with a fun one to get you pumped about the season.

1. The NFL Social Media Super Bowl*

Wait so a random day in May determines someone’s future employment based on how people online react to them presenting an ordered schedule? Kinda.

Social media teams for the NFL are geared up. This is kinda like their Super Bowl unveiling to their respective fan bases the order of the upcoming season. Here are a few of my favorite schedule release videos:

Pay your annual homage to the Chargers. Every year. Every time. They kill it.

Ok the Titans tried to follow up on last year’s success and basically copy and paste. It’s fine but it feels a bit lazy not trying something new.

I need to add the Bears in here because I’m a fan of what they did on a couple of levels. Player actors are almost always bad but Spice Adams + an Annie Agar cameo was great.

2. Week 1: Time to Overthink for the Next Four Months!

Week 1 is always a treat and starts out with the Ravens in Week 1 versus the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.

Here’s a look at the early Vegas lines by ESPNBET. Betz and I will briefly tease this on The Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast this next week if you want some initial gut reactions. It’s way too early but consider this the “syllabus”. Don’t throw it away but put it in a place you can refer to again later as we draw nearer.

3. The Prime Timers

Start clearing your calendars now! It’s clear the NFL plays favorites. Carolina can’t even sniff an evening game. At least their families will know exactly where to find them.

Oh and bonjour!

4. REVENGE!

We all love a good revenge game narrative and while we overvalue it for fantasy, it makes great television! This is not every single one (I likely missed a few) but here are the most compelling:

  • Week 1– Goff vs Stafford… at this point, it seems like it’s worked out for everyone. (LAR @ DET)… Amari versus the Cowboys teams that traded him away (DAL @ CLE)… Hollywood Brown against Lamar Jackson (BAL @ KC).
  • Week 2– Russell Wilson faces the Broncos at home (PIT @ DEN), if he’s still the starting QB.
  • Week 3– Gabe Davis revenge on Monday Night Football (JAX @ BUF).
  • Week 4– Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury travels back to Arizona (WAS @ ARI)… Oh man Zach Wilson plays catch up with his Jets pals (DEN @ NYJ)
  • Week 5– Stefon Diggs faces his old Bills mates (BUF @ HOU)… D.J. Moore hosts Carolina (CAR @ CHI)
  • Week 6– The Lions go back to Dallas to replay that controversial two-point conversion at the end of last year (DET @ DAL)
  • Week 7– Saquon goes back to the Meadowlands to see a fan base that felt betrayed (PHI @ NYG)
  • Week 8– TREY LANCE REVENGE WEEK EVERYONE! Maybe he dresses for the event on Sunday night football (DAL @ SF)… Caleb Williams faces off against his old OC Kliff Kingsbury (CHI @ WAS)… TE Johnny Mundt week! Seriously, I could find very few revenge games this week (MIN @ LAR)…
  • Week 9–  Crap I did it again. Colby Parkinson aka TE1 for the Rams (LAR @ SEA)
  • Week 10– The MVS game you have circled on your calendar; oh and there’s also Mahomes vs Allen. (KC @ BUF)
  • Week 11– Old man Zach Ertz returns to Philly on Thursday night (WAS @ PHI)
  • Week 12– The Harbaugh Bowl on Monday Night Football where Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins explain what life was like in Baltimore. (BAL @ LAC)
  • Week 13– The Jerry Jeudy rematch on MNF you likely won’t care about (CLE @ DEN)… The Geno Smith revenge game? Ok, so this is where revenge goes too far. (SEA @ NYJ)
  • Week 14– Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota (ATL @ MIN)… Calvin Ridley sees the Jaguars team for whom he bolted for a bag of cash (JAX @ TEN)
  • Week 15– New HC Brian Callahan and Tyler Boyd face their old Bengals mates (CIN @ TEN)
  • Week 16– The Mike McDaniel vs. Kyle Shanahan extravaganza that everybody and their mama will be talking about all week long. (SF @ MIA)
  • Week 17– Aaron Jones welcomes Green Bay with playoffs likely on the line (GB @ MIN)… Derek Carr seeks revenge against the Raiders (LV @ NO)… Aaron Rodgers avenges his torn Achilees from Week 1 (NYJ @ BUF)… Dave Canales reminds the Buccaneers why he left (CAR @ TB)… OC Shane Waldron welcomes back his old Seattle crew on Thursday night (SEA @ CHI)
  • Week 18– Dan Quinn finishes the season in Dallas. Hopefully, his team is in shambles by then (WAS @ DAL)

5. Net Rest Advantages

Does it feel odd on days when we don’t have football? Starting in September, teams being a wild four-month ride. With so many international games as well as Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, one of the biggest areas of concern for a team (especially on the road) is their rest differential. This is computed by simply taking the number of days in between games for each team and comparing them for each matchup. For example, the 49ers are -16 on their rest day differential, a tough look for a team sitting at 11.5 wins for the sportsbooks.

6. Bye Week Bros

For redraft leagues, you get to pivot and plan for these. In BestBall, you have to know your bye weeks or you take a zero. Also good luck fantasy managers in Weeks 12 & 14 prepping for the playoffs!

7. Prepare for the Playoffs

Are you already mentally ready for the playoffs? (Apologies, I’m not talking to you. Hell, there’s no way you’re making it. I’m talking to your league mates.)

For teams thinking forward about fantasy playoffs, here are some of the teams with juicy schedules from Weeks 15-17:

  • Dallas– @ CAR, TB, @ PHI
  • Chicago– @ MIN, DET, SEA
  • Atlanta– @ LV, NYG, @ WAS

The toughest final three games for fantasy:

  • Miami– @ HOU, SF, @ CLE
  • Houston– MIA, @ KC, BAL
  • Pittsburgh– @ PHI, @ BAL, KC

8. Stream Away

The beginning of the season is one of the most beneficial in aligning with your late-round QB philosophy for fantasy football. We’re looking for QBs that can be drafted late or picked up off the waiver wire early in the season:

9. Beneficial Matchups

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but there isn’t as much year-to-year consistency with team defenses and turnover differential in the NFL. Instead, look for stretches throughout the season where teams can make a run.

10. ChristmasFootball.com

If you’re feeling in the holiday spirit, head on over to that lovely website above.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/analysis/10-insights-to-the-2024-nfl-schedule-release-fantasy-football/

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