Top 10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy League

Drafting Team Defenses and Kickers 07:06

• Look at the early season schedule and target teams with strong defenses.
• Don’t focus on drafting the top defenses but rather stream defenses throughout the season.
• Target defenses with favorable early matchups to get off to a good start.
• The 49ers and Eagles have promising opening schedules this year.
• The 49ers face the Steelers, Rams, Giants, and Cardinals.
• The Eagles start with the Patriots and Vikings.
• These teams could provide good fantasy points in those matchups.

“So I just want to get off to a good first two weeks.” 08:08

Strategies for Drafting Kickers 09:04

• Target kickers on high-scoring offenses.
• Look for teams that play in indoor stadiums (dome advantage).
• Indoor stadiums are preferred over outdoor stadiums.
• Being in a dome can provide more consistent scoring opportunities.

“You want to target a high scoring offense… You want teams that are in the dome.” 09:09

##ide Wins Championships 17:10

• Upside is crucial for winning a fantasy football championship.
• Players with breakout potential can make a big impact on your roster.
• A player’s point distribution and ability to win a week are more important than their total points scored.

“If you want to win a championship, you need the huge breakout players.”

Examples of Upside 18:21

• Comparing players drafted next to each other:
  • Jalen Hurts vs. other quarterbacks 18:23
  • High-upside wide receivers 18:25
  • Running backs with significant potential 18:29

“You want to target players with the potential to have a massive impact on your team.”

Breakout Players 18:29

• Look at past championship teams in your league, they usually have two or three breakout players 18:39
• Example from last year: Rhamondre Stevenson and Melvin Gordon were drafted around the same round, but Stevenson had breakout potential while Gordon did not 19:05
• Example of breakout players helping people win championships: Justin Fields and Jaylen Waddle 19:40

“You want the guy who can just break out.” 19:55

Drafting Players with Breakout Potential 20:01

• Focus on players who could potentially break out 20:14
• Example choices: Kirk Cousins vs Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins will be consistent while Richardson has high upside 20:19
• Example choices: Brandon Cooks vs Ja’Marr Chase, Chase has higher potential to become an alpha fantasy asset 20:53

“Focus on getting a player who legit could break out.” 21:52

Injecting Volatility into Lineup 22:18

• Taking risks on players with breakout potential is like injecting volatility into your lineup 22:22
• You might have some swings and misses, but you have to hit on some breakouts to win championships 21:49
• Drafting players with high ceiling and upside is important 22:49

“If you hit home runs on five and you fail on five, well, guess what you get to do? You get to tune into the show, use your brain and pick up five new players.” 22:36

Don’t Rely on Past Trends 23:27

• Don’t rely too heavily on past team trends when making fantasy projections 23:36
• New playcallers can completely change the outcome of an offense 24:16
• Example of Miami offense with new playcaller resulting in a gold mine for fantasy value 25:03

“Every single season we have new out of the box playcallers that join a team and literally that chain shifts the entire outcome of the offense for the upcoming year.” 24:26

Offensive Strategy 26:17

• Last year, the team ran three wide receivers on only 12% of plays, which was very low compared to the NFL average of 61%.
• However, in preseason week one, they ran three wide receiver sets 81% of the time.
• This suggests a shift in offensive strategy towards a more creative, pass-heavy offense.

“Whether it works, we’ll find out. But the blueprint is going to be completely different.”

Importance of Coaching Changes 27:02

• Todd Monkin, the team’s new offensive coordinator, is known for a more creative and pass-heavy offense with a fast pace.
• With three wide receivers potentially being on the field for 60 to 80% of the time, there is a chance for all three players to outperform their draft cost.
• Additionally, other offenses with new offensive coordinators, such as Beckham, Flowers, and Bateman, could also see positive changes.

“Maybe you don’t have to get it exactly right. Maybe all three of them outproduce their draft cost because it’s very low for those three guys.”

Potential Offensive Transformations 27:41

• The Indianapolis offense, led by Shane Steichen, the offensive coordinator from the Super Bowl Philadelphia Eagles, struggled in the previous year.
• However, with a change in offensive approach, they have the potential to improve.
• Similarly, Sean Payton’s influence on the Denver offense could result in a significant improvement from the worst offense in the league.
• The addition of Jared Stidham to the Denver Broncos may also contribute to their offensive improvement.

“That offense could be better than you think… Michael Pittman is a super discount right now in drafts because high expectations are not there.”

Tiers for Drafting 30:16

• Grouping players into tiers is a crucial strategy during the draft season.
• Instead of relying on a top 200 rankings sheet, which can lack context, tiers provide a better understanding of player value.
• By knowing the tiers of players, you can make more informed decisions during the draft.

“The number one tip that I can give anybody during the draft season is you have to group your players in tiers.”

Double Trouble 38:58

• Don’t double your trouble when it comes to onesie positions in the first four rounds of the draft.
• Onesie positions refer to drafting a quarterback in a one quarterback league or a tight end in a one tight end league.
• If you invest multiple picks in the first four rounds on onesie positions, you sacrifice depth in other positions.
• It’s fine to draft a top-tier quarterback or tight end, but doubling up on onesie positions can leave you weak in other areas.
• “You want to take one? You want to grab the Andrews and the third. You want to grab the Mahomes or Allen in the second or third. I’m cool with that.” 40:31

“Don’t double your trouble. If you do it twice, if you go Kelsey and then you follow it up with Josh Allen or you go Waller and then you follow it up with Lamar, you’re putting yourself in a very difficult position.”

Sacrificing Depth 40:15

• Investing multiple early-round picks on onesie positions sacrifices depth in other positions.
• In leagues where you play multiple running backs and wide receivers, along with a flex position, it’s important to have depth in those positions.
• “If they invest multiple picks in the first four rounds on onesie positions, which is why I’m saying don’t double your trouble, you want to take one, you want to grab the Andrews and the third, you want to grab the Mahomes or Allen in the second or third. I’m cool with that.” 40:23

“You want to have great players, but you have to have depth. You have to have options. And that’s what you sacrifice when you double up on onesie positions.”

Sacrificing Value in the Early Rounds 40:40

• Taking Travis Kelsey and a top quarterback early means sacrificing value at running back and wide receiver.
• This can be difficult to overcome in a snake draft.

“You are sacrificing depth at those positions because you did not invest the first or second round on them.”

Threading the Needle in Drafting 41:26

• When you invest in players like Kelsey and Mahomes, you need them to perform at an elite level.
• It is important to have a solid strategy for the rest of your draft in order to compensate for sacrificing value in the early rounds.
• There is little room for error at other positions when relying heavily on a few high-tier players.

“But you are threading the needle. You don’t have margin of failure at those other positions.”

Flex with Benefits 43:52

• Instead of targeting typical backup running backs, focus on “flex with benefits” players.
• These are running backs who can be started in the flex position but also offer upside if the player in front of them misses time.
• Examples include David Montgomery, AJ Dillon, and Antonio Gibson.

“Remember, flex with benefits. You can play them and then there’s massive upside should something shake out if unfortunately for their starter.”

Finding Discount Versions in the Draft 46:00

• Look for discount versions of players later in the draft.
• Don’t draft the brand names right away, but wait for the generic versions that offer 90% of the production at a lower cost.
• Examples include drafting Mark Andrews as a discount version of Travis Kelsey.

“The tip here is to not draft the first version. That’s the tip. To not draft the brand names and wait on the generic version that you can get later.”

Batteries and Drafting Strategy 47:57

• The speaker talks about the poor quality of batteries, emphasizing that even brand new batteries may not work. They mention having to change four Amazon basics before finding success with the bunny brand. 48:11
• The speaker recommends using the gray Amazon basics batteries instead of the orange ones. They offer this as an extra tip or advice. 48:32
• The speaker refers to this battery example as a terrible situation and suggests avoiding similar situations in fantasy football drafting. 48:26

“I put in four Amazon basics… The brand new batteries didn’t work, but go on.”

Drafting Quarterbacks and Finding Value 48:31

• The speaker suggests waiting on drafting quarterbacks in the first round and instead opting for cheaper options in the second or later rounds. They specifically mention Justin Herbert as a valuable pick who can provide similar production to Patrick Mahomes at a later round. 48:54
• Another example given is Jalen Hurts, who can be selected several rounds later than more popular quarterbacks like Justin Fields, still providing 90% of their production. 49:21
• The speaker emphasizes the importance of finding good value and suggests looking for generic discount versions of players in later rounds. They give examples like Keenan Allen as a cheaper alternative to another player. 49:36

“So I am more inclined to avoid the first so that I can just add to my roster with… other good options.”

Avoiding Historical Bias and Evaluating Players Fairly 50:30

• The speaker cautions against holding past experiences against players and falling into historical burn bias. They use the analogy of a band releasing two terrible albums in a row, and how it can unfairly shape opinions about their future work. They highlight examples like Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley who had injury-ridden seasons but bounced back, and highlight the importance of considering the full picture of a player’s situation. 50:34
• It is emphasized that injuries should not be assumed for most players unless they have a history of chronic issues. The speaker encourages fantasy managers to let go of past disappointments and make clear-minded decisions based on current circumstances. 52:08

“Let those burns go… you need to see the whole picture.”

Benefits of Playing Indoors for Fantasy Football 53:05

• The speaker discusses the advantage of playing in a dome for fantasy football. They mention that games played in domes tend to have higher scores and more points, making those players worth considering for fantasy teams. They provide statistics showing higher average combined scores and a higher percentage of games hitting the over in domes compared to outdoor games. 53:43

“54% hit the over… The home team average over 25 points a game.”

Dome Field Advantage 55:17

• Playing inside gives you more fantasy production.
• NFL people that say playing outside in the elements gives you better football, but more points is better football.
• More points is better football experience.

“Yes, more points is better football experience of going to a game is better if you can have it outdoors.”

Know Your League 57:03

• It is important to know your league’s tendencies.
• ADP may not always reflect your league’s draft habits.
• Understanding the preferences and tendencies of other managers in your league can give you a strategic advantage.

“Knowing who is in your league, what they usually do, it’s a true advantage.”