The Fantasy Footballers’ Starts of the Week for Week 13

It’s Byemagedon time! Isn’t this a perfect time of year for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and other fantasy football workhorses to get a week off? It doesn’t matter that the fantasy playoffs are around the corner or that the playoff seeds are coming down to the wire. While none of this matters to the NFL, it does matter to The Fantasy Footballers. Andy, Mike, and Jason have spent the entire week trying to help everyone navigate this tough week. On Thursday, they brought their iconic Starts of the Week to give confidence to those wrestling with your lineup questions. To check out the entire episode on YouTube, click the link below.

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Andy’s Starts of the Week

QB – Russell Wilson @ HOU

Russ is kind of back to his old self. He leads all QBs in touchdown rate at 6.3%, something he did often in Seattle. Also, Wilson has the lowest interception rate in the NFL, at 1.3%. He has been steady for the Broncos on this winning streak. Meanwhile, the Texans are bleeding points to the quarterback position. Houston ranks 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and allows the third-highest completion rate (69%) in the NFL. Andy doesn’t even feel like he needs special underpants for this game. That’s how good he feels about Wilson this week.

RB – Jaylen Warren vs. ARI

Andy called dibs on Warren while Mike took Najee, but the honest answer is to play both in this matchup. Arizona is awful on defense this year, especially against the run. They rank 31st in scoring defense, allowing opponents 26.8 points per game. They also rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, so they give up lots of points and do it to running backs. That is great for an efficiency monster like Jaylen Warren. He is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, which is number one among running backs with at least 50 attempts, and he averages a broken tackle every 5.2 rush attempts, also number one in the NFL. He has been a very good player all year, and the matchup is perfect, even with Najee taking work for himself. See the Najee section for more on that breakdown from Mike.

WR – Josh Downs @ TEN

We can’t ignore the 13 targets that Downs saw last week. Those targets only turned into five catches for 43 yards, which was disappointing, but it should give you hope for the future. The Colts play fast and throw the ball to a specific set of receivers, which is great for fantasy. Now, they face a Titans team that is a bottom-five pass defense despite playing Carolina last week. The Titans allow the sixth-highest yards per attempt (7.1) in the NFL. Downs getting targets is a given; this should be a matchup where those targets should produce big numbers.

TE – David Njoku @ LAR

David Njoku is currently the most reliable pass catcher for the Browns. He has seen six or more targets in six straight games and finished as a top-12 TE each time. The Rams are the 32nd-ranked defense against TEs and are a matchup we have targeted each week for the TE position. If DTR is the QB, he targets Njoku on 34% of his passes. If it is Joe Flacco, then the last time we saw him play, he threw the ball a ton, and again, Njoku is the most reliable target for the team with Amari Cooper injured. Njoku will be necessary for the Browns to do anything on offense this week.

Jason’s Starts of the Week

QB – Brock Purdy @ PHI

Purdy leads the NFL in yards per attempt at 9.4, and the matchup says the 49ers will have to throw it in this game. Opponents throw the ball 68% of the time against the Eagles. That is the highest rate in NFL history through 12 weeks. The percentage went down after Josh Allen attempted 51 attempts last week. Through 11 games, Philly is on pace to allow 4,300 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns. That is how you beat the Eagles, through the air. For more context on those numbers, the Eagles are allowing the same statistics Josh Allen put up in 2022 when he was the QB1. The matchup is excellent for Purdy, and the team wants to put up big numbers against Philadelphia.

RB – Zack Moss @ TEN

Jason’s favorite NFL player is Zack Moss. No, not really. Jason has been a Zack Moss hater for much of his career, but this season, Moss has forced Jason to eat his words. The last time we saw Zack Moss take on the Titans was in Week 5, when Moss had 23 carries for 165 yards and two touchdowns, leading to a finish as the RB2 on the week. Earlier in the week, Head Coach Shane Steichen suggested, “Zack Moss will get the overwhelming majority of the carries as he did early in the season,” which means Moss should go right back to being a fantasy stud for the team.

WR – Brandon Aiyuk @ PHI

Jason wanted to pair a WR with his QB start of the week, and he is taking Brandon Aiyuk to have the blow-up game this week. The Eagles rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Here is the list of wide receivers averaging 85+ receiving yards and 40%+ of their teams’ air yards: Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Brandon Aiyuk. He has been in the elite tier of fantasy receivers this season. The matchup is perfect, and it should be great for him.

TE – Evan Engram vs. CIN

Engram has been an excellent TE this year, but it doesn’t seem like it because of his lack of touchdowns; he hasn’t caught a single one this year. Engram has 7.2 targets per game, which ranks fourth among all tight ends. He leads the Jaguars in targets and receptions versus zone coverage. Those numbers are great; he just hasn’t had the touchdowns. Engram faces a Bengals team that we have targeted with TEs all year. The Bengals run zone on 69% of their defensive snaps and rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points given to the TE. It is a perfect storm for Evan Engram to have a big game and maybe even finally get into the end zone.

Mike’s Starts of the Week

QB – Tua Tagovailoa @ WAS

It has been a bit of a rough stretch with Tua recently, and Mike wants to get your confidence back up for this week. This year, the equation has been straightforward for Tua: he beats up on bad teams. Washington is dead last in passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns, and schedule-adjusted points to the QB position. The Dolphins have a team-implied total of 30 points, and they should easily hit that mark in this game. For them to score that kind of point total, Tua must be at least some of the damage through the air.

RB – Najee Harris vs. ARI

Mike claimed Najee early in the week because the matchup is juicy, and the Steelers finally looked like an NFL offense. Last week without Matt Canada, Najee had 15 carries for 99 yards and a touchdown on the ground, including one of the angriest strong runs of the season. He looks like the guy everyone hoped for, and he finally delivered. Arizona, meanwhile, has been awful against the run. The Cardinals have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns in 12 games, and teams average 140 rushing yards per game against Arizona. Najee can have a good week even if Jaylen Warren has a good week.  We know this because last week, Kyren Williams and Royce Freeman both had effective games against Arizona, so there is no reason Najee should not be in your lineup this week.

WR – Adam Thielen @ TB

If Mike says you should start him, you know the situation must be juicy. The last few weeks have been rough for Grampappy Thielen. It had been so bad that the owner fired the head coach and several offensive staff members. So, why, then, should we believe in Thielen? It starts with the Bucs and them being bad at pass defense. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in expected points per attempt and 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points given to WRs. Last week was an outlier bad game where Thielen only had one reception on three targets, but that is not what he has been all year. Thielen has averaged 10.6 targets and 8.2 receptions over the previous nine games, and that kind of usage is what has made him valuable for fantasy. With the coaching shake-up, Thielen should become the focus of the offense again, and he should return to form, especially in such a great matchup.

TE – Juwan Johnson vs. DET

Johnson had a breakout season last year when he caught seven touchdowns. Last week, he saw seven targets, and the Saints are missing several pass catchers, meaning Johnson’s role could be more significant this week. Johnson was a WR who converted to the TE position, so he is an effective pass catcher. The Saints also face a Detroit team that has been bleeding points the last few weeks. Since Week 8, the Lions have allowed 26.8 points per game, which is 30th in the NFL. If the Saints hope to score close to that, Johnson will have to be involved with the lack of other weapons for the offense.