Analysis Best Sports Picks Targets Targets per Route Run TPRR TPRR Report Week 5

Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

October 3, 2023
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Welcome back to the weekly TPRR report as we’re looking ahead to Week 5 in the NFL.

This weekly series will give you actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is ultimately a measure of efficiency, calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.
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Week 4 saw a few high-drafted players ball out, and you don’t need me to tell you that AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, or Stefon Diggs were absolute legends this past weekend. Your window to buy low on AJ Brown has now passed, a player I highlighted here: Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances For Week 2. But let’s move on and take a look at this last weekend.

Week 4 Recap

Here’s a look at the top 25 players in TPRR with a minimum of 15 routes run (the complete list of eligible players is at the end of this article for reference).

Source: pff.com; Monday Night Football stats unavailable at the time of writing

​The Good

1. Nico Collins, Houston Texans (37.5% TPRR)

Stroud Boys, stand up! CJ Stroud is looking like a decade-plus starting QB in this league and he has been dealing to his outside weapons. Nico Collins was the benefactor this week and saw a crazy high TPRR. He has been ascending ever since Week 1 and he is looking to be a player that could be in the running for best late-round pick. As long as Nico is getting accurate targets from Stroud down the field he is going to be a must-start every week going forward.

2. Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (31.6% TPRR)

The fact that any player on the 49ers is even remotely in “The Good” category besides Christian McCaffrey shows how good Aiyuk has been. Brandon and Brock Purdy seem to have a great connection and he is looking his way when he drops back to pass. Aiyuk grabbed all six of his targets for 148 yards, but CMC took all the touchdowns. What is really interesting here is that Aiyuk got six of the 20 targets and George Kittle/Deebo Samuel got a combined one target (hint, Kittle got the lone one). If Deebo is going to be limited moving forward then you should really look to acquire Aiyuk if you can. It may be too late, but I do not see him going anywhere.

3. Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (31.4% TPRR)

The man that everyone wanted to get rid of in dynasty or not draft in redraft has had himself a solid past two weeks. Buzz and Woody (on the Toy Story Funday Football broadcast) cheered on Christian in London as Trevor Lawrence peppered him with 11 targets. This could be due to Zay Jones missing the game, but I find it hard to believe that TLaw is going to go away from Kirk that easily. Christian Kirk was an integral part of the Jags’ offense last year, and with Calvin Ridley struggling the past few weeks, it feels as if Kirk should have some staying power for targets at a minimum.

The Not So Good

1. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars (5.7% TPRR)

I don’t want to write about the same players that AJ wrote about last week, but I feel like I would be doing a disservice to the #footclan by not mentioning that it has been really bad for Ridley the past few weeks, and that continued in London. Unlike last week where none of the wideouts for the Jaguars reached 20% TPRR, this week Christian Kirk reached 30%…are we looking at a big huge bust? I sure hope not, because I am cheering for Ridley, but it has looked bad as of late. I am sitting him this week against the Bills who just made the two studs for the Dolphins look like mid-round wide receivers.

2. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (12.9% TPRR)

Ask any casual fan of the NFL who they thought would win in the Bills versus Dolphins matchup. “Oh man, the Dolphins just scored 70, hard to go against that.” Welp, Vegas and power rankings know a little bit apparently because the Bills went off as three-point favorites and they backed it up. The Bills shut down the Dolphins’ offense after the first two drives of the game ended in touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa was throwing lob passes to the Bills and the entire offense looked completely disjointed. I am not worried about their offense, but I am a bit worried about Jaylen Waddle as a fantasy asset. He has not produced thus far and it seems more likely that Tyreek Hill goes off or one of the two Miami running backs. It is something to monitor going forward.

3. Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs (5.6% TPRR)

Maybe I am being mean and no one in the world even rosters Moore at this point in the season, but if you do, cut bait now! He is not putting up numbers or even involved in any part of the game plan besides jet sweep trickery. Patrick Mahomes played one of the worst games I have ever seen him play, but this Moore game is par for the course. He has not produced at all this year even when he has had golden opportunities (Travis Kelce out, Kadarius Toney banged up). Find the nearest wishing well and throw a $100 coin (if they exist) and hope that it gets better. Skyy Moore should be traded away in every dynasty league as well. It is over, he is done.

The full list:
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Rank Player Team Routes Target TPRR
1 Justin Jefferson MIN 21 9 42.9%
2 Nico Collins HST 24 9 37.5%
3 Romeo Doubs GB 37 13 35.1%
4 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR 26 9 34.6%
5 A.J. Brown PHI 40 13 32.5%
6 Davante Adams LV 40 13 32.5%
7 Garrett Wilson NYJ 41 13 31.7%
8 Brandon Aiyuk SF 19 6 31.6%
9 Chris Godwin TB 35 11 31.4%
10 Christian Kirk JAX 35 11 31.4%
11 Braxton Berrios MIA 20 6 30.0%
12 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 22 6 27.3%
13 Stefon Diggs BUF 26 7 26.9%
14 DJ Moore CHI 38 10 26.3%
15 Joshua Palmer LAC 31 8 25.8%
16 Josh Reynolds DET 24 6 25.0%
17 Michael Gallup DAL 25 6 24.0%
18 Puka Nacua LA 42 10 23.8%
19 Rashee Rice KC 17 4 23.5%
20 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN 26 6 23.1%
21 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 35 8 22.9%
22 Terry McLaurin WAS 44 10 22.7%
23 George Pickens PIT 31 7 22.6%
24 Adam Thielen CAR 36 8 22.2%
25 Tee Higgins CIN 18 4 22.2%
26 Drake London ATL 32 7 21.9%
27 Rashid Shaheed NO 32 7 21.9%
28 Marquise Brown ARZ 46 10 21.7%
29 Curtis Samuel WAS 37 8 21.6%
30 Jahan Dotson WAS 38 8 21.1%
31 Randall Cobb NYJ 19 4 21.1%
32 Jerry Jeudy DEN 24 5 20.8%
33 Tutu Atwell LA 39 8 20.5%
34 Michael Wilson ARZ 35 7 20.0%
35 CeeDee Lamb DAL 30 6 20.0%
36 Christian Watson GB 20 4 20.0%
37 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 31 6 19.4%
38 DeVonta Smith PHI 42 8 19.0%
39 Robert Woods HST 27 5 18.5%
40 Tyler Boyd CIN 33 6 18.2%
41 Calvin Austin III PIT 28 5 17.9%
42 Mike Evans TB 17 3 17.6%
43 Courtland Sutton DEN 29 5 17.2%
44 Jayden Reed GB 29 5 17.2%
45 Chris Olave NO 35 6 17.1%
46 Deven Thompkins TB 24 4 16.7%
47 Dyami Brown WAS 18 3 16.7%
48 Michael Thomas NO 38 6 15.8%
49 Kendrick Bourne NE 20 3 15.0%
50 Zay Flowers BLT 27 4 14.8%
51 Hunter Renfrow LV 27 4 14.8%
52 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 28 4 14.3%
53 Gabe Davis BUF 22 3 13.6%
54 Quentin Johnston LAC 22 3 13.6%
55 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 22 3 13.6%
56 Amari Cooper CLV 37 5 13.5%
57 Brandin Cooks DAL 30 4 13.3%
58 DeVante Parker NE 30 4 13.3%
59 Keenan Allen LAC 31 4 12.9%
60 Jaylen Waddle MIA 31 4 12.9%
61 Chris Moore TEN 24 3 12.5%
62 Tyreek Hill MIA 33 4 12.1%
63 Josh Downs IND 26 3 11.5%
64 Darnell Mooney CHI 36 4 11.1%
65 Tank Dell HST 27 3 11.1%
66 Mack Hollins ATL 28 3 10.7%
67 K.J. Osborn MIN 19 2 10.5%
68 Devin Duvernay BLT 19 2 10.5%
69 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLV 38 4 10.5%
70 Trey Palmer TB 31 3 9.7%
71 Nelson Agholor BLT 21 2 9.5%
72 Jakobi Meyers LV 44 4 9.1%
73 Allen Lazard NYJ 36 3 8.3%
74 DJ Chark Jr. CAR 37 3 8.1%
75 Elijah Moore CLV 37 3 8.1%
76 Van Jefferson LA 40 3 7.5%
77 Alec Pierce IND 27 2 7.4%
78 Allen Robinson II PIT 29 2 6.9%
79 Trenton Irwin CIN 15 1 6.7%
80 Jordan Addison MIN 15 1 6.7%
81 Calvin Ridley JAX 35 2 5.7%
82 Skyy Moore KC 18 1 5.6%
83 Olamide Zaccheaus PHI 38 2 5.3%
84 Rondale Moore ARZ 40 2 5.0%
85 Equanimeous St. Brown CHI 21 1 4.8%
86 Justin Watson KC 22 1 4.5%
87 Tim Jones JAX 23 1 4.3%
88 Dontayvion Wicks GB 24 1 4.2%

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/analysis/targets-per-route-run-report-week-5-fantasy-football-2/

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