Stat Surprises + Keeper Decisions, Rotten Commissioners

Surprising stat projections and player rankings for 2023! On today’s fantasy football podcast, find out what shocked Andy, Mike, and Jason the most in the initial 2023 rankings. Plus, the latest NFL News and lots of fantasy football questions answered, including how to handle rotten commissioners! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for May 23rd, 2023

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Summary:

Stat Surprises 00:00

• The Fantasy Footballers team has been digging into the numbers and discovered some stat surprises for the 2023 season.

• The Ultimate Draft Kit will be released in under 10 days.

• Joining the podcast are hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright, along with their producers.

Insights from UDK analysis 03:25

• The team has gone through every team and every player for the 2023 season to look at coaching changes and analyze last year’s data.

• The team observed a few things that stood out, including the fact that the Seattle Seahawks are projected to have a higher total rushing attempt despite the acquisition of JSN.

• Mike Wright discusses his initial ranking of Kenneth Walker and how it was adjusted due to his injury and the drafting of X Charbonnet. He had fears about this player as he wasn’t a great per-play basis running back but an incredible home run hitter.

The fantasy value of Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet 05:37

• The Detroit Lions drafted both running backs in the 2022 NFL draft, with Charbonnet being selected in the seventh round and Walker in the second round.

• There is a disagreement between the Fantasy Footballers cast members regarding the fantasy value of both running backs.

• One member believes that the Lions will use Charbonnet more frequently due to his skill set, which includes pass-catching ability that Walker did not demonstrate in college or his previous season.

• Although Walker is faster than Charbonnet and may have more big-play potential, the cast member fears that his lack of catching ability and potential inefficiency in touchdown scoring make him a less attractive fantasy pick.

• The other member is still optimistic about Walker’s potential and has him ranked in their top 10.

“I think he’s not going to score as many touchdowns as we want. He’s not going to catch the ball enough, and that equals a bad fantasy pick for where he’s going.” 06:35

The unpredictability of rookie running backs, staying flexible 07:45

• The cast members agree that the analysis of these running backs’ potential must account for the unpredictability of rookie running backs’ success in the NFL.

• The example of previous rookies who were favored for fantasy success but did not perform as expected was mentioned.

• Both members advise fantasy players to approach the situation with flexibility and an open mind, as both players must prove their worth as rookies in training camp and earn the trust of their coaching staff.

“So we all like Charbonnet. Yeah, he’s good… And I have put, you know, it’s one of those things you don’t want to let go of. Like Kenneth Walker in Dynasty Leagues and then in terms of the regular season, we are so desperate as fantasy players to find a running back that can be the guy. There aren’t very many of them. He could have been. He could have been a contender.” 08:20

Kenneth Walker‘s Potential 10:29

• Kenneth Walker‘s draft position may be ahead of current projections.

• The team had already drafted Kenneth Walker in the second round last year along with Rashad Penny.

• Running back 15 in best ball right now.

• It is not necessary to fully litigate this topic in the middle of May.

• Charbonnet may obtain the groundswell during training camp, but still uncertain about his potential.

• Drafted position indicates Charbonnet may be heavily utilized.

• There is no clear conclusion on who the backup running back will be yet.

“Kenneth Walker is going to be drafted way ahead of where we haven’t projected.” 10:29

 

“We also had Kenneth Walker drafted in the second round last year. Yeah. With Rashaad Penny.” 10:34

 

“It’s just one of those things I’m going to pay close attention to because if there’s a groundswell for Charbonnet and training camp, believe it… they drafted him in a position where he can be heavily utilized.” 10:51

Justin Herbert‘s Potential 11:51

• Justin Herbert has high-end potential.

• Possible leading the NFL in attempts and completions at the end of 2023.

• Herbert’s position is advantageous as pocket passer.

• Boom touchdown year fluctuations among pocket passers such as Herbert, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Matt Ryan.

• Herbert could be the steal at the quarterback position in the draft.

• Targets will focus on Herbert during drafts.

• Touchdown rates are not sticky metrics in the NFL.

• Offensive coordinator changes among other game dynamics make touchdown rates fluctuate.

“When I looked at, when I step back from my rankings, the one thing I wanted to point out is kind of a stat surprise was just really what I think the true high end potential is for Justin Herbert.” 11:51

 

“I have him leading the NFL in attempts and completions at the end of 2023… and he’s the kind of player pocket passer… If you get that kind of boom touchdown total year, I think Justin Herbert is going to be the steal at the quarterback position in the draft.” 12:04

 

“Because I still don’t want to take an Allen Mahomes where they’re going to go… There are still questions around Lamar… I think my target is going to be Herbert.” (833, 844, 848)

• Justin Herbert has the tools to be a top three fantasy quarterback.

• He has proven himself when he has the right weapons and coaching scheme.

• With the changes made in the background, he has the potential to have a monster season.

• If Joshua Palmer can be the number four option and Echler is kept, their offense can be very difficult to stop.

• Injuries have been a problem for the team, but there are many reasons to be pro-chargers offense this year.

“I think Herbert’s proven himself at this point that with the right weapons around him in the right coaching scheme, he can be a top three fantasy quarterback.” 16:11

Aaron Rodgers‘ Projections 17:13

• Aaron Rogers’ projections can go all over the map.

• His upside is at 4.5, but his risk is at a seven.

• He has a dangerous pick, but he’s back with Nathaniel Hackett as the offensive play caller.

• His numbers show that he can throw up massive touchdown numbers.

• He didn’t have Devonte Adams last year, but he has Garrett Wilson as a strong enough wide receiver.

• If the pass rate goes up just slightly from last year, Aaron Rogers will come out looking very good.

• The touchdown percent rises and goes back to a normal Aaron Rogers type of year.

• This puts him at 32 touchdowns and a top 10 quarterback for Mike.

“Just his numbers, you know, 4,000 yards, but throwing up massive touchdown numbers 37 and 48 that the touchdowns plummeted to 26.” 17:44

News and Notes from Around the League 20:01

• There isn’t much news to talk about.

• They will start discussing the first part of their season schedule and which teams will have a rough start.

T.Y. Montgomery 20:14

• Former Patriots running backs coach Ivan Fears recently commented on T.Y. Montgomery‘s potential involvement in the team.

• T.Y. Montgomery is a converted wide receiver and an excellent pass catcher, making him a potential third-down back for the team.

• In deeper PPR leagues or dynasty leagues, Montgomery could be worth rostering, but it is still uncertain whether he will have a significant role.

• James Robinson‘s role on the team may be more concerning than Gummery’s involvement.

“Montgomery, if he is truly the third-down running back, which he’s a converted wide receiver, excellent pass catcher. In a really deep PPR league, probably more of like a deeper dynasty league, T.Y. Montgomery should be rostered.” 21:31

Kareem Hunt 23:05

• Browns are not expected to re-sign Kareem Hunt.

• There are teams that would love to add Hunt to their running back room at the price that they view him at now.

• Hunt may not have the same view of himself as the NFL does, causing difficulties in finding a team to sign with.

• Hunt may find a team by August.

“I mean, it’s like the team, there are teams that would love to add Kareem Hunt to their running back room at like a price that they view Kareem Hunt at now. And I don’t know if he views himself that way. Just speculating. I mean, he hasn’t found a home yet. So, and you would have thought there were teams like Denver or, you know, with opportunities to strengthen their back fields that are bringing back injured players. I think he will find a team by August.” 23:54

Kenny Pickett 24:29

• Mitch Trubisky signed a contract extension with the Steelers, where he started a few games last year.

• There is speculation that Kenny Pickett, a new addition to the team, may start games this year.

• Pickett would only start if there was an injury to Trubisky or if he played himself off the field.

• Some enthusiastic Steeler fans are optimistic about Pickett.

“Not without injury to pick it. I don’t think Pickett plays himself off the field. […] Very enthusiastic about Kenny Pickett.” (1471, 1483-1487)

• The commentators are discussing the potential of a certain quarterback.

• They are unsure if he has what it takes to be a great quarterback.

“I do not believe he has what it takes to be a great quarterback.” 24:56

• However, they believe that he is in a situation where he will be forced to be a good enough quarterback to succeed.

“And I believe he is in a situation around him to be forced into being a good enough quarterback to succeed long enough to have an average NFL career.” 24:59

• They speculate that if he were to go to a bad franchise, he would not succeed.

“Like, I think if he went to a bad franchise, he would just flame out, but he’s going to win games.” 25:10

• They believe that he will make the playoffs at least once in his career.

“He will make a playoff.” 25:33

Discussion on Pittsburgh and steel 26:17

• The commentators shift the discussion to Pittsburgh and its association with steel.

• They speculate on the process of making steel.

• They ask if it’s mined or if it’s made from iron.

“Is it steel iron that’s been, something’s been done to it?” 26:55

• They discuss the possibility of steel being an alloy.

“Is steel an alloy?” 27:08

• They eventually conclude that steel is made from iron ore and a compound of iron, oxygen, and other minerals that occur in nature.

“It’s made from iron ore, compound of iron, oxygen and other minerals that occur in nature.” 27:16

Cheating in Fantasy Football Leagues 29:06

• Brendan from Detroit, Michigan asks about how to deal with a cheater in his fantasy football league.

• The hosts discuss the issue of commissioners cheating in leagues.

• They describe this as a problem they have seen many times before.

• They express their disbelief that people would cheat in a game played for fun.

• One of the hosts questions how someone could make a schedule that benefits them without it being obvious.

• They discuss how they manually update their schedules in almost every league they play in.

• The hosts offer suggestions for dealing with commissioners who cheat, such as taking over as commissioner or having a league vote for a new commissioner.

“No, it’s, it’s, it’s thinks that there are situations like that. Um, what for my experience, it’s not been, it’s always been leagues where somebody put it together by themselves. That’s kind of what happened because they have a different sense of kind of like, like having it be there.” 33:00

Creating a Fantasy Football Schedule 33:07

• The group creates a fantasy football schedule manually each year.

• The schedule is created using a schedule creator tool, but they make tweaks to strategically benefit the league.

• They start and end the season by playing the three division mates, which are the only teams they play twice.

• There are schedule makers out there, but they still manually input the schedule to make adjustments.

“We strategically…want to play the division mates two times.” 33:52

Keeper League Decisions 34:44

• A voicemail question from a viewer asks which two of the three running backs should be kept in a keeper league.

• The options are Breece Hall for a third-round value, Rhamondre Stevenson for a sixth-round value, or Miles Sanders for a seventh-round value.

• The hosts choose Rhamondre Stevenson and Miles Sanders as their two picks, while one host also includes Breece Hall as a good option.

• They discuss the value of each pick based on the round they are chosen in and potential performance for this season and future seasons.

“You’re still going to get a third-round type of value there.” 36:30

Keeping Wide Receivers vs Tight End 37:26

• The question is whether to keep two players out of AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Mark Andrews in a 14-team PPR league.

• Andrews is an excellent player, but in a three-wide receiver league, Brown and Amon-Ra are more valuable.

• Brown and Amon-Ra are late first or early second round players, while Andrews is overvalued in the current market.

• Andrews is compared to Brown and Ross and found lacking in a full PPR league where the wide receivers can provide more value.

• “I’m definitely on the wide receiver side,” and “you can’t even consider Mark Andrews there.”

“Those guys will provide far more value in a league where you have to start three wide receivers” 38:45

Doubts about Mark Andrews 39:21

• Is Mark Andrews overvalued and overhyped? The question arises whether he can deliver as a guaranteed number two or higher tight end.

• The experts see him as a guaranteed number three or higher tight end.

• Andrews had 154 targets two years ago, but his target share may go down if Zay Flowers emerges.

“I still see a pathway with a team that passed the ball to tight ends 41% of the time last year” 39:51

Recruiting for a dynasty league 40:43

• The question is about the best way to recruit players for a dynasty league.

• The expert suggests starting with close friends and family who share the passion for football or fantasy football.

• Online people you know from Twitter or Discord groups can also be considered.

• Humorous suggestions include using a sign spinner or a megaphone, but the real answer is to target people who share your interests.

“Step one, tier one would be those friends and family around you that share those passions” 41:42

Joining a Fantasy Football League 41:58

• The Fantasy Footballers have a discord community at footlandleagues.com

• The community has amazing people with great values, sense of humor, and good at fantasy

• When joining a league, it’s better to have committed managers than those who are barely playing

• 10 committed managers are better than 12 with two people that are barely playing

“Much better to have 10 committed managers than 12 with two people that are barely playing” 42:27

Fireball Jones Resurgence 42:41

• Fireball Jones is a comparison to Tim Patrick

• Tim Patrick is similar to Jones because he’s useful to his quarterback and the quarterback falls in love with him

• Patrick was building a rapport with Russell Wilson before his injury last season

• Cortland Sutton has fallen out of favor and Jerry Judy is a young and upcoming receiver

• Fireball Jones is a great comp to Tim Patrick, and he could be a WR3 by the end of the year if he catches some touchdowns

• They paid Jones a lot of money on a decent contract, and he’s coming off an injury but has a long time from that injury

• Jones’ cost is nothing and he won’t be drafted in a redraft league

• In underdog best ball drafts, he currently has an ADP of 206

• There are avenues for Fireball Jones to be extremely relevant for the price he costs right now

“He’s someone that could be a wide receiver three by the end of the year. If he catches some touchdowns on a few moonballs, he’s a very good wide receiver” 43:46

Fireball Jones’ Ceiling 44:57

• Fireball Jones is 30 and will turn 30 this year heading into what is technically year six, year five of playing at that age

• The ceiling that he has hit has been 740 yards and six touchdowns

• It’s hard to say if he will have a resurgence, but he could be useful

• Fireball Jones just needs to have his first resurgence, right?

“The ceiling that he has hit has been 740 yards and six touchdowns” 44:51

Surgeons’ odds and target distribution 46:05

• The odds of a surgeon are discussed, with one person estimating it at 50%.

• Another person mentions they have lower odds than that.

• Tim Patrick‘s target distribution is briefly mentioned, with a 16.7% target share and 91 targets, while lower percentages and numbers are also mentioned.

“I’d be curious if we, if we want to glance over at Tim Patrick, target distribution…” 46:14

• Fireball Jones is mentioned to have 120,000 targets.

• This is met with concern from one of the speakers.

“Fireball Jones has 120,000 targets. Oh boy. Oh boy.” 46:34

2023 rankings and player projections 46:44

• The 2023 rankings for position groups are up on the website, with player projections available in the ultimate draft kit.

• The ultimate draft kit is advertised, with pre-order pricing available for a few more days.

• The UDK Plus is mentioned to have additional information.

“The rankings are up on the website. The 2023 rankings for the position groups are up on the website. They just went up end of last week. So you can see where everybody is ranked right now.” 46:44

“And then the detailed player projections are inside the ultimate draft kit… If you get the UDK plus, you got information right now.” 46:58

Conclusion 47:23

• The episode is concluded, with thanks to listeners and the promise of another episode on Thursday.

“That’ll do it for today’s episode of the show. Thank you for your questions. Thank you for listening and we’ll be back with another episode on Thursday. Talk to you then. Good bye.” 47:23