SR’s Fab 5: This Season Will Answer Bucs’ 5 Biggest Questions

Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a shorter, quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Who The Bucs’ QB Will Be – In 2024?

Teams that don’t have a franchise quarterback like Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow or Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, or at least a Pro Bowl QB like Seattle’s Geno Smith, won’t make the playoffs – let alone a Super Bowl – in the modern-day NFL. It’s a quarterback-driven league and the Bucs need to find a more-than-capable replacement for Tom Brady to continue to compete within the division and make the postseason.

One of three quarterbacks will ultimately be Brady’s successor in 2024 and beyond. It’s either going to be veteran journeyman Baker Mayfield, inexperienced former second-round pick Kyle Trask or possibly a QB who the Bucs will select in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Tampa Bay is spending the 2023 season to see if Mayfield can have a career resurrection the way Geno Smith did in Seattle last year in making his first Pro Bowl and winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year at age 32. The Bucs are also seeing if Trask can ever develop into a starting-caliber quarterback before spending another premium pick on another QB in 2024.

One of four things is going to happen this year in Tampa Bay at the quarterback position: Mayfield succeeds and gives the Bucs a stable presence at QB and Trask does not; Trask succeeds and is the QB of the future and Mayfield does not; neither QB succeeds and the Bucs get a new QB next year; or they both succeed and show a ton of promise for the future as a 1-2 punch.

The good news is that Tampa Bay has a pair of quarterbacks to chose from rather than just banking on one guy to be successful. And three out of those four options listed above are a good thing. Bet you didn’t realize that, did you?

The Bucs waited around for five years to see if former first overall pick Jameis Winston would ever develop into a starting-caliber quarterback, but the team failed to make the playoffs once during the Winston era. Tampa Bay is giving the combo of Mayfield and Trask one year to prove themselves as Brady’s heir apparent, so we won’t have to wait long to see if the Bucs have found their next QB or if they’re going to reboot the position in 2024.

We’ll know by the end of the 2023 season if Mayfield is worth investing in for the long haul or if Trask, who is under contract next season, can possibly be worthy of a second contract in 2025 as a potential starter. If neither proves to be capable of winning the job, then the national pundits who are predicting a Top 10 draft pick for Tampa Bay will be proven right.

And the countdown to the Bucs drafting either USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye would be on.

FAB 2. Does Todd Bowles Stay In Tampa Bay?

Aside from finding a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback, the other critical component to fielding a perennial playoff contender is having the right head coach. Does Tampa Bay have the right head coach in Todd Bowles? That’s what the 2023 season is for – making that determination.

Bowles was promoted as Bruce Arians’ successor at the end of last March when the legendary coach abruptly retired. Unlike every new head coach, Bowles wasn’t afforded the option of changing out the coaching staff. He had to inherit Arians’ staff regardless of whether he wanted to make coaching changes or not.

Bowles wound up firing offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich last year in addition to firing several offensive assistants, and has revamped his staff after an initial season with mixed results. The Bucs went 8-9 in Bowles’ first year, but won the NFC South and made the playoffs for a third straight season. Yet Tampa Bay got crushed by Dallas at home, 31-14, and ended Bowles’ first season in head coach in disappointing fashion.

The Glazers have given every head coach they’ve hired at least two years before firing them. Jon Gruden lasted seven years, while Tony Dungy was in Tampa Bay for six. Raheem Morris and Dirk Koetter got three seasons because each had one winning campaign during their tenure, while Greg Schiano and Lovie Smith each got two years before their dismissal. Arians retired after three seasons and doesn’t count in this discussion because he wasn’t fired.

It’s unknown how many wins Bowles has to reach in 2023 to keep his job, but either repeating as NFC South champions, or winning at least nine games should do it, as that would be an improvement over last year’s record. Bowles’ defense, which is the side of the ball he controls as the play-caller, is almost guaranteed to be good once again this season.

Last year, the Bucs gave up 21 points or less in 10 games, and were 7-3 in those contests. That means that Bowles’ defense really carried Tampa Bay, as the team only won eight games and the defense was largely responsible for seven of them.

There will be some significant changes on defense this year, as veterans like Will Gholston, Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Akiem Hicks are gone and newer, younger replacements like Logan Hall, Calijah Kancey and Greg Gaines step in. The hope is that their lack of experience can be made up with better, more athletic play. It’s a bit of a gamble to be so young up front in the trenches, but Bowles is smart enough to figure out ways to disguise weaknesses and accentuate strengths.

The biggest question marks in Tampa Bay will be on the offensive side of the ball. Did Bowles make the right hire with new offensive coordinator Dave Canales? And do the Bucs have the right quarterback in either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask?

Those are two big areas of this team that Bowles ultimately signed off on this offseason. And they are areas of the team where will ultimately have little influence over once the season begins, so he has trust that he made the right decisions. If Bowles nails both the offensive coordinator hire and finds the right quarterback this season that will go a long way towards winning this season – and keeping his job in 2024.

FAB 3. Is Dave Canales A Legit Play-Caller?

Dave Canales was not the Bucs’ first choice at offensive coordinator this offseason. Head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht interviewed nearly a dozen candidates, but some turned the Bucs down because Tom Brady had retired and the quarterback position was in flux, as Baker Mayfield wasn’t signed until after free agency began in the middle of March.

Throw in the fact that there is a perception by some in the league that Bowles might not be in Tampa Bay past the 2023, and that led some candidates to shy away from the opportunity. But Canales, a former quarterbacks coach, wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator in Seattle, said yes. And the Bucs hired him despite not having any play-calling experience at the college or pro level.

Sometimes a team’s first choice is not necessarily the best choice. Former head coach Tony Dungy was the third choice behind Jimmy Johnson and Steve Spurrier in 1996, but wound up turning the franchise around and taking Tampa Bay to four trips to the playoffs in six seasons.

Canales is smart and highly energetic on and off the field. So far, the players and the assistant coaches rave about him and the system he brought from Seattle to Tampa Bay. There will be some Bucs-specific tweaks and wrinkles that are best-suited for Tampa Bay’s personnel. That pleases head coach Todd Bowles, who felt that Byron Leftwich was too rigid a year ago in making the players fit Bruce Arians’ system – even though some didn’t – rather than adapting the scheme to fit the personnel.

Installing a system and coaching up the players is one thing, but play-calling is an art form. It’s a knack. Some people can do it, and some can’t because of the lightning-quick decision-making that is required and the ability to know and see what’s coming. Good, capable play-callers can study their opponents and find weaknesses to exploit, and craft a winning game plan. But great play-callers have an uncanny sense of anticipation and can make necessary adjustments on the fly in an instant.

We don’t know if Canales is even going to be good yet – let alone great. He’ll have three dress rehearsals in the preseason until the games count in September, starting in Minnesota. Bowles and general manager Jason Licht took a big risk in hiring such an unproven offensive coordinator and play-caller with so much riding on the first season of the post-Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay.

Yet all of the league’s brilliant offensive minds – Andy Reid, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Zac Taylor, Mike McDaniels, Matt LeFleur, Doug Pederson and others – had to start somewhere. They were all rookie play-callers at some point early in their careers. Canales seems awfully confident, and that confidence has trickled down to all of the offensive players already – and the Bucs have only begun to operate in his newly installed offense.

Players won’t be good at anything if they don’t believe they can be good at it. Belief goes a long way – just ask Ted Lasso. Canales has made the Bucs early believers that his plays will work. Now comes the hard part. Scripting the plays so they form an attack, and then learning how to adapt when things don’t go according to script. That will take some time to figure out in his rookie season as an offensive coordinator.

Canales seems cool under fire due to his confidence, and that should help. He took this job knowing that he could have only one season to prove he’s a worthy play-caller. If he and Bowles fail and there is a regime change in 2024, Canales could be looking for a quarterbacks coaching job again elsewhere. And he might not get another shot at calling plays again.

The pressure is on for Canales to seize the moment and make this offense click in one year. Improving the scoring from 18 points per game to 21 points per game, which is where Seattle was last season, should be enough to get the Bucs at least nine wins – as long as Bowles’ side of ball holds up its end of the bargain.

FAB 4. Is Devin White’s Future With The Bucs?

The Bucs were criticized by some in 2019 for drafting Devin White with the fifth overall pick. Off-ball linebackers typically aren’t viewed as being valuable enough to be selected that high. Typically, Top 5 picks are reserved for quarterbacks, left tackles, elite defensive linemen or shutdown cover corners. There have been times in White’s career where his splash plays prove the Bucs right for drafting him so high. His blazing speed is unique and he’s shown a penchant for making highlight reel sacks and creating takeaways.

But White has been inconsistent through his four years in Tampa Bay. As high as his highlights are, his lowlights are just as low. That’s why the Bucs want to make him play out his fifth-year option before deciding whether or not to meet his contract demands, reported to be $18 million-$20 million per year. White, a team captain, wants his money now, and requested a trade this offseason. The team declined and insists he play out the 2023 season.

That has caused White to hold out of the voluntary offseason workouts and OTAs. Will White show up for mandatory mini-camp and avoid being fined? He doesn’t really have any leverage, especially with the Bucs adding two rookie inside linebackers they’re really high on in SirVocea Dennis and Jeremy Banks. Some sources I’ve spoken with at the team headquarters believe White will show up, which is a good thing.

But will White be a hold-in? Will he show up and just not participate out of protest just to avoid being fined? We’ll find out on Tuesday.

And what will White’s attitude be like this season? Will he be able to simply forget about his displeasure over his contract situation and focus on football, or will that consume him and cause him to be distracted? Or can White channel his unhappiness into his best season ever in Tampa Bay?

How will the Bucs react to White having a good season in 2023? We know that if he continues to be inconsistent the team will likely let him walk and grab a compensatory pick in 2025 as a result – likely in the third round if he fetches at least $12 million or more elsewhere.

The problem for White and the Bucs moving forward is that the 25-year old linebacker has revealed who he really is. He’s all about getting paid. White is not loyal to the Bucs, and proved that by wanting to be traded out of Tampa Bay. In fact, he told us he was all about the money after his LSU pro day in 2019 when he said he wanted to be a $100 million linebacker.

So what happens if he plays well and the Bucs decide to re-sign White to a four-year extension, and two years into his extension he feels like he’s underpaid and decides to hold out again? It could very well happen.

I think the Bucs could better spend $18 million on other positions than inside linebacker and other players other than Devin White. We’ll see what happens with No. 45 at the end of the 2023 campaign.

FAB 5. Will The Bucs Still Rule The NFC South?

The Bucs were the best team in the worst division in football last year. Tampa Bay finished 8-9 and won the NFC South while the other three teams – Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans – all finished 7-10.

Are the Bucs good enough to be able to challenge for a third straight division title? Or will there be a team that rises up this year and reaches double wins to separate from the pack?

Atlanta went on a spending spree and made the most notable additions. But will second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder and his inexperience hold them back? Or can the Falcons’ talent on offense, which now includes running back Bijan Robinson, overcome Ridder’s expected mishaps?

The Bucs made a lot of big splashes in free agency in 2014 when general manager Jason Licht and head coach Lovie Smith arrived. But most of those moves backfired or fizzled out. Free agency is just as tricky and as error-prone as the draft is, and we’ll find out quickly if the Falcons can gel from a chemistry standpoint with so many new faces.

New Orleans made a big splash by signing free agency quarterback Derek Carr, who is one of the more prolific passers in the league. But the salary cap-strapped Saints saw their defense decimated in free agency.

Can head coach Dennis Allen be clever enough to out-scheme opponents with the aging stars he has in middle linebacker Demario Davis, cornerback Marshon Lattimore and defensive end Cameron Jordan? And can some of the new weapons on offense like Carr and running back Jamaal Williams make the Saints more balanced, or pick up some of the slack if the defense slips?

The Panthers hired a new head coach in Frank Reich and traded up to draft quarterback Bryce Young first overall. Carolina is probably the least likely team to rise up this year and claim the division title because Young will probably be in for some typical rookie growing pains.

All the other NFC South teams have returning head coaches outside of the Panthers, and continuity is king in the NFL. Carolina added some talent in free agency and the draft, and Reich can coach. But it feels like the Panthers are at least a year away from being even a good team. Yet, as the Bucs found out last year with a surprise loss in Carolina in October, any division foe can be dangerous.

Teams will adjust personnel plans in the offseason in free agency and the draft based on the strengths of their divisional foes. Which NFC South team – or teams – will rise this year and reach double-digit wins and become a force to reckon with on an annual basis? We’ll find out next January.