SR’s Fab 5: Bucs Wise To Wait For “Mega-QB Draft Class” In 2024

Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Bucs Wise To Wait To Address QB In 2024 Draft

The Bucs didn’t draft a quarterback this year and will wisely wait until 2024, when the QB position looks to be much more robust in terms of quality and quantity. That’s not just my opinion, but also the opinion of former Pewter Reporter and current Pro Football Focus NFL Draft and NFL analyst Trevor Sikkema. With the start of college football season about a month away, I had a conversation with Sikkema this week about the upcoming “mega-class” of quarterbacks in next year’s draft and how that may have impacted the Bucs’ plans for the 2023 season.

More on those QBs later in SR’s Fab 5.

But first, let’s examine why the Bucs passed on drafting a quarterback this year and what the team’s strategy is with veteran journeyman Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, a former second-round pick in 2021.

The 2023 quarterback draft class saw 14 signal callers selected, which is tied for the second-highest number of drafted QBs since 2013. Three of the QBs – Bryce Young (Carolina), C.J. Stroud (Houston) and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis) – were drafted within the first four picks. The Bucs never had a chance at drafting any one of those signal callers without trading away future premium picks – likely first-rounders.

The Bucs might have a gem in either Mayfield, who signed a one-year deal worth $4 million, or Trask, who is largely unproven. So, it makes sense for the team to see what it has in both of these quarterbacks first in 2023 before adding another one to the mix. That line of thinking led the Bucs to pass on Kentucky’s Will Levis in the first round. Levis was was taken in the second round by Tennessee, while Hendon Hooker (Detroit) was selected in the third round. The other nine quarterbacks that were drafted were selected on Day 3 and will likely serve as backups.

“I think that that was probably their mindset when it comes to passing on Will Levis, which they did,” Sikkema said. “You’ve just got to trust your evaluation of the player. I’m definitely of the mindset where you don’t want to go crazy with this, but essentially you either have a quarterback or you don’t, right? Those are the two types of teams in the NFL.

“And so for a guy who has the arm talent that Will Levis does, it was intriguing to me when he was still on the board and the Buccaneers were there that they didn’t pull the trigger. But I’ve got to think they just did not love him as a prospect because if he was on the board it feels like you go in that direction.”

In fact, the Bucs didn’t love Levis because they passed on him. But part of the reasoning was because the team is high on both Mayfield and Trask and committed to seeing if either player can develop into a quality starter this year in Dave Canales’ new offense.

“It feels like they’re very excited about Baker Mayfield, and obviously what could potentially be with Kyle Trask,” Sikkema said. “So it makes sense that if they didn’t love Levis, you let it ride with the guys that they have right now and say, ‘Look at who might be available there for us in 2024.’ Plus, you know they’re making sure that they’re figuring out their cap space. They’re kind of like rebuilding in that mode after the winning window that they had with Tom Brady.

“So they’re getting the cap even healthier, and this makes sense to almost kind of have a transition year where you roll the dice on either Trask or Mayfield. And if you don’t hit on it, I don’t think it’s any time lost on it. I think they can slingshot themselves to their next mini-rebuild with a new quarterback and be able to hit a winning window pretty soon after that.”

If neither Mayfield nor Trask proves worthy of being a starter in Tampa Bay for the 2024 season, by the time the Bucs make that determination and burn through both passers, it will likely be late into the 2023 campaign. By then, the team could well be on its way to a Top 10-Top 15 draft pick anyway if the Bucs don’t have success at the quarterback position this year.

“I think that the reality is where one of these quarterbacks that they have succeeds then they’ve hit it big – and got one of them on the cheap,” Sikkema said. “Then the Bucs know who their next quarterback will be. It’s kind of almost like lucking out – not lucking out because you know how much work it takes to run a pro personnel department – but like they’d hit it big if that were the case with either Mayfield or Trask.

“And if they didn’t, they probably did a lot of future scouting and said, ‘Look at the quarterbacks that we have up in the 2024 class if these guys don’t pan out. If Mayfield or Trask don’t pan out, look at the options that we’re probably going to have available for us no matter where we’re picking. If it ends up being a Top 15 overall pick – well of course the higher the better.’”

FAB 2. Bucs Can Find A Franchise QB In The 2024 Mega-QB Draft Class

Last year’s draft class had 14 quarterbacks selected, but only five of those were Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks. What makes the 2024 draft class special is that there could be as many as 10 QBs drafted in the first three rounds. Not only is there more quantity in the upcoming draft class of quarterbacks, but the quality is also head and shoulders above last year’s class, especially with the potential for far more Day 2 selections after just two QBs were taken on Day 2 in April.

“I’ve watched 16 quarterbacks already for my summer scouting, and honestly, I have maybe six or seven more that I want to get to before the start of the college football season,” Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema said. “It’s never been like that before. I mean even in some good quarterback classes, I’ll get nine or 10 of these guys watched and graded, and I’ll go, ‘Okay, that’s about it. I’m good here.’ And I’ve watched 16 of these guys, and it is an extremely deep class.”

If neither Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask pan out this year, the Bucs could take a stab at finding a franchise quarterback next April – and may not even have to burn a first-round pick on a talented QB. Sikkema said that there will likely be a handful of first-rounders, headlined by USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye, but there will likely be just as many intriguing options in the second and third rounds.

“I think that it’s kind of coming to a head – all of the quarterbacks that have utilized that extra COVID year of eligibility,” Sikkema said. “Because now we have in this class coming up some of those guys that are on their last year – that extra COVID year – they’re in the class. You have juniors who are draft eligible for the first time. They’re in this class. You’ve got redshirt juniors and regular seniors who might have been undrafted free agent quarterbacks before, but now they’ve got experience because of the transfer portal and they didn’t have to sit behind players.

“So it’s kind of a culmination of a lot of these guys still having that last year of extra eligibility from the COVID year, the transfer portal being wide open, and guys being able to go to schools and start playing pretty quickly. It’s given us this mega-QB draft class coming up where the potential names that are in this group are almost 20 deep. It’s unreal.”

Now let’s take an early look at some of the signal callers for the Bucs draftniks to scout and keep an eye on this fall. One of them could wind up in red and pewter with the Bucs next April.

FAB 3. The First-Round QB Prospects That The Bucs Could Target In 2024

If you’ve seen any of the “way-too-early” mock drafts this summer, you’ve seen the lack of faith in the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers by many in the media. Most early 2024 mock drafts have the Bucs picking a quarterback in the Top 10 next April – either USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye. Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema has those two QBs at the top of his list of NFL-caliber signal callers, followed by Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., a Tampa native.

First-Round Prospects

USC QB Caleb Williams
North Carolina QB Drake Maye
Oregon QB Bo Nix
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Duke QB Riley Leonard

Williams figures to go first overall if his follow up season after winning the Heisman Trophy goes as planned. He’s thrown for 63 touchdowns and just nine interceptions over the last two years at Oklahoma and USC, respectively. Williams is a very mobile quarterback and has also rushed for 16 scores.

“Caleb Williams and Drake Maye played so well last year in the toughest situations,” Sikkema said. “For Caleb Williams, it was his play under pressure. You know everybody remembers the massive highlight throws when he’s scrambling back there, playing backyard football and those huge completions that he makes on the highlight reel. But Caleb Williams’ turnover-worthy play percentage was exceptionally low when he was under pressure.

“So it’s like not only does he have those crazy backyard football touchdown throws and big-time throws, but he also took care of the football when he had all that pressure and he was playing that off script style. He’s not just this this guy who only performs and only has these highlight plays. I mean he’s also taking care of the ball when pressure is mounting, so that, and his ability to understand pressure, navigate pressure, play under pressure, is so translatable to the NFL because we know how much more talented defenses are. If you’re already good at pressure in college, you’ve got a chance to be something special in the league.”

Maye has been mocked relentlessly to the Bucs in early 2024 mock drafts. The strong-armed, 6-foot-5, 220-pound passer threw for over 4,000 yards with 38 TDs and seven INTS. He also ran for nearly 700 yards with seven rushing scores.

“Drake Maye, man, the amount of high-difficulty throws that he had last year 15-20 yards down the field, just ripping it through coverages,” Sikkema said. “I mean the kid is just a natural. The arm talent is beautiful. The ball placement was good. Now he was a first-time starter last year so some of his decision-making, especially towards the end of the season, unraveled a little bit on him.

“But when you’re talking about a true sophomore who’s now just going into his first draft-eligible year, he’s giving you all the tools that you would want to see from a guy who can go in the Top 10 of the draft I think.”

Nix looks like a changed man since transferring from Auburn to Oregon. He completed 71.9% of his passes with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Nix also ran for over 500 yards and 14 scores and would seem like a great fit in Dave Canales’ offense.

“Bo Nix – last year his tape was first-round worthy,” Sikkema said. “I really do think he’s got a chance to continue to silence a lot of doubters, of which I was one of them. Shoot, I was leading the charge. Before last year I was, ‘Don’t talk to me about Bow Nix anymore after his three years at Auburn.’

“But what Kyle Whittington is doing with him at Oregon – he’s become a phenomenal decision-maker. He’s much more poised under pressure. He’s super accurate. He’s got a great arm to him. He’s got some good mobility, so I think he’s a potential first-rounder as well.”

After three years as a below-average, part-time starter at Indiana, Penix transferred to Washington, where he threw for over 4,600 yards with 31 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. The Tampa native wisely returned for his final year and could ascend into the first round with another great season.

“Guys who could be up in that first-round conversation – Michael Penix Jr., Riley Leonard from Duke,” Sikkema said. “Leonard has a chance to be a sleeper first-rounder as well if he takes a massive step forward. He’s got crazy arm talent, so he could be somebody that you invest a late first-round pick in.”

In his first season as a starter at Duke, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound Leonard passed for nearly 3,000 yards with 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions, while completing 64% of his passes.

“I mentioned Riley Leonard from Duke,” Sikkema said. “He’s awesome. I think that he kind of flashes right now, but man, there are some throws from Riley Leonard that you watch the ball placement and say, ‘That was an NFL throw.’ He has more of those than I would say so a lot of the guys on the list. Not more than Caleb Williams or Drake Maye or anything like that, but he’s in that conversation with those NFL-type throws with Michael Penix with Bo Nix – these guys that are getting considered as potential first-rounders.

“I think Leonard’s right there, and not a lot of people are talking about him because I don’t know how many people watch Duke quarterbacks, you know? Especially ones that are low recruits, but you’ve got to get eyes on Riley Leonard.

Let’s take a look at some of those quarterback prospects that could be selected within the Top 50 on Day 2.

FAB 4. Plethora Of Day 2-Caliber QBs To Be Available For Bucs In 2024 Draft

“There are just so many names where you look at them and say, ‘Yeah if you take the next step, if you put it all together you’re going to get considered for the Top 50,” Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema said. “And I cannot remember a class that has had this many players where I could genuinely say they have a shot at being a Top 50 pick. I think that just speaks to the depth and the overall quality of the group.”

The list of Day 2-caliber quarterback prospects – second- or third-rounders – will vary from talent evaluator to talent evaluator heading into the 2023 college football season. But here is a consensus list to start with.

Day 2 Consideration

LSU QB Jayden Daniels
Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson
Tennessee QB Joe Milton
Washington State QB Cam Ward
Texas QB Quinn Ewers
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
Florida State QB Jordan Travis
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders

Jayden Daniels was at Arizona State with Rachaad White before transferring to LSU last year, where he completed 68.6% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Daniels, who is 6-foot-3 and a slender 185 pounds, also ran for 885 yards and 11 TDs for the Tigers and could sneak into first-round consideration with another big year.

“I think that Jayden Daniels is somebody that you have to have on your radar,” Sikkema said. “He’s been in college football a while now, but last year he took care of the ball so well and so often. When you get these guys who are as good with their legs as Jayden Daniels is, you see them make one read and then take off. And that just wasn’t him last year.

“Even when he was scrambling he was keeping his eyes down field. He had an extremely low turnover-worthy play percentage last year. So he was taking care of the ball as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. So when you’re making decisions like that, when you’re taking care of the football, what he can be is a dual-threat RPO-type of quarterback. I think he’s definitely a sleeper who could rise.”

At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson is one of the biggest quarterbacks in the 2024 draft class. He’s averaged 67.5% completion percentage over the past two seasons while throwing for 45 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. Over the last two years as a starter, the mobile Jefferson has also averaged 650 yards per season on the ground, while rushing for 15 TDs.

“Another one who’s a really good sleeper – Cam Ward is interesting – but I would say that I like KJ Jefferson from Arkansas a little bit more than I like Cam Ward right now,” Sikkema said. “Jefferson has a massive frame and a big arm. He gives you that RPO ability, and a lot of people are really excited about him.

“I definitely saw areas of his game where I felt like he definitely needed to get better, especially on those throws to the sideline. That’s where I felt like his accuracy was a little bit erratic. It wasn’t what you needed it to be, and we know that the NFL game – you’ve got to attack the sidelines and attack it with rhythm, anticipation and accuracy. He just didn’t have as much consistency as you’d want to see, so he’s a little bit lower on my quarterback list going into season. But that’s another dude where physically – physical gifts I think are all over the place in this quarterback class, and that’s what makes it really exciting one is we’re heading.

At 6-foot-5, 244 pounds, Joe Milton is a big, strong-armed passer whose game resembles Anthony Richardson’s without the wheels. Replacing the injured Hendon Hooker at the end of the season, Milton threw 10 TDs and no INTs and will be Tennessee’s starter this season.

In his first season at Washington State, Ward completed 64% of his passes for 3,232 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs. The 6-foot-2, 223-pound Ward is an escape artist with great pocket mobility as he enters his senior year.

Texas’ Quinn Ewers has a big arm, but might be a little over-hyped. He completed 58% of his passes last year for 2,177 yards with 15 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Can he re-establish Texas as an elite school in its final season in the Big XII and elevate his draft stock? Or will he underwhelm and lose the job to Arch Manning, who is Peyton Manning’s nephew?

Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy has a slender build at 6-foot-3, 197 pounds, but he’s a smart decision-maker. Last year, McCarthy completed nearly 65% of his passes for 2,719 passes and 22 touchdowns with five interceptions.

Florida State’s Jordan Travis isn’t big at 6-foot-1, 201 pounds, but he has some savvy and production. He’s thrown 39 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions over the past two years, and has rushed for 23 scores in his FSU career.

We’ll see how Shedeur Sanders, the son of Deion Sanders, transitions from Jackson State to Colorado and the PAC-12 this year. In two years with the Tigers, the 6-foot-2, 215-pounder passed for 70 touchdowns and 14 interceptions and ran for another nine scores on the ground.

FAB 5. 2024 Draft Class Is Packed With Sleeper QBs

There are several quarterbacks who may be considered Day 3 prospects right now, but with a strong 2023 season one or more of these signal callers could rise up draft boards. Florida’s Anthony Richardson was one of those prospects who rose up the ranks all the way to No. 4 where the Colts selected him due to his physical talent and potential. Here are some sleeper names to know that the Bucs will be scouting hard this season.

Sleeper QBs You Need To Know

Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall
Tulane QB Michael Pratt
Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman
Kentucky QB Devin Leary
Western Kentucky QB Austin Reed
Kansas State QB Will Howard
Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke
South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler
Nebraska QB Jeff Sims

I absolutely love Grayson McCall’s game, especially the 77 touchdowns and eight interceptions in three years as a starter at Coastal Carolina. He also has 17 TDs on the ground and would be an ideal fit Dave Canales’ offense. McCall, 6-foot-3, 210, is a gritty gamer.

Tulane’s Michael Pratt helped Tulane finish in the Top 10 and score big-time wins over Kansas State, USC and UCF. He’s thrown for 68 TDs and 21 INTs as a three-year starter and the mobile QB also has 23 scores on the ground, too. Pratt, 6-foot-2, 200, is a tremendous leader.

Sam Hartman, 6-foot-1, 208, transferred from Wake Forest to Notre Dame. He completed 59% of his passes for the Demon Deacons over five years, passing for 12,967 with 110 touchdowns and 41 interceptions with 17 rushing TDs. Hartman has plenty of experience. He just needs to make better decisions with the football.

Devin Leary transferred from North Carolina State to Kentucky, where he’ll replace Will Levis. The 6-foot-1, 212-pounder has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. He had a massive year in 2021 with 3,433 passing yards and 35 touchdowns with only five interceptions. But last year, he only played in six games and had 11 TDs and four INTs.

Austin Reed transferred to Western Kentucky from West Florida and had a breakout junior season for the Hilltoppers. He completed 64.6% of his passes for 4,744 yards with 40 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Reed also added another eight scores on the ground and could be poised for a monster senior season.

Kansas State’s Will Howard won the job from Adrian Martinez in-season last year and led the Wildcats to a Big XII championship, beating TCU in overtime. At 6-foot-4, 245 pounds, Howard has great size, a rocket arm and good pocket mobility. He completed nearly 60% of his passes for 1,633 yards with 15 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

Tyler Van Dyke has been a tease for years at Miami. At 6-foot-4, 224 pounds, Van Dyke has good size and a live arm, but has battled inconsistency throughout his career. In two seasons as a part-time starter, Van Dyke has thrown for 4,766 yards with 35 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He had a good season in 2021 with 25 TDs and six INTs, but underwhelmed last year with only 10 TDs and five INTs.

Spencer Rattler has been over-hyped since he arrived at Oklahoma as a highly touted recruit. He flamed out with the Sooners after three seasons, failing to live up the past success of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, and lost the starting job to Caleb Williams. In his first season at South Carolina, the 6-foot-1, 200-pounder 66% of his passes for 3,026 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He needs to cut down on the erratic play to warrant a draftable grade in 2024.

Nebraska’s Jeff Sims transferred from Georgia Tech after completing 57.5% of his throws for 4,464 yards with 30 touchdowns and 23 interceptions over three seasons. Sims, 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, is a good athlete who has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs in his career, but must improve his accuracy and decision-making as a passer.

“I think that certainly at the top there are guys to love,” Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema said. “Drake Maye and Bo Nix and Caleb Williams and Michael Penix – you know those guys that you think could be first-rounders. But then there are plenty of guys that you think are going to be littered in Day 2 and then a lot of guys to take a chance on in Day 3. So there were 14 quarterbacks drafted last year … I mean there could be 20 quarterbacks – maybe even a little bit more – that get drafted this upcoming year for sure.”

Even if Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask emerges as a quality starter for the Bucs in 2023, the team will surely take advantage of the talent and depth of the mega-QB draft class in 2024 and select another young passer to put into the mix for the future.

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