SR’s Fab 5: Are Bucs Catching Eagles At The Right Time?

Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Are The Bucs Catching The Eagles At The Right Time?

Timing is everything in life.

The timing was absolutely perfect in 2020 when Tampa Bay landed Tom Brady in free agency, and Bruce Arians helped the Bucs navigate through the COVID-19 pandemic better than most teams. As a result, the Bucs played in Super Bowl LV at home at Raymond James Stadium, and that helped them beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 31-9.

Monday night’s game at Ray-Jay clearly does not have that amount of significance attached to it. It’s just a Week 3 regular season game between two unbeaten teams in Tampa Bay and Philadelphia that each beat a pair of winless teams.

The Bucs are an early surprise, as most pundits picked Tampa Bay to crash and burn without Brady this year and challenge for the top pick in next year’s draft. Those same pundits predicted the Eagles to run roughshod over the NFC again after winning the conference last year before losing to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. There is still plenty of time for the pundits to be right about both teams.

But what if the Bucs buck the trend? What if Tampa Bay is catching Philadelphia at the right time?

The Eagles don’t seem as dominant to start the season. Philly started the season 8-0 last year. There were some narrow wins because the talent level in the NFL is relatively close in nature and that happens from time to time. But six of those first eight Eagles wins came by a touchdown or more – with four coming by double digits.

This was an Eagles team that trounced the Giants, 38-7, in the first round of the playoffs, and destroyed the 49ers, 31-7, in the NFC Championship Game before losing to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII, 38-35.

Philly barely beat a bad New England team, 25-20, on the road in Week 1. The Eagles blew an early 16-0 lead before hanging on to win. In Week 2, the Eagles built a 27-7 lead over the Vikings, before allowing Minnesota to outscore them, 21-7 in the final 25 minutes. Philly did just enough to prevail, 34-28.

Philadelphia might have the most talented 53-man roster in the league, and part of the reason why the Eagles haven’t played up to their potential could be the fact that the team is breaking in two new coordinators. Nick Sirianni lost offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to Indianapolis, where he’s the Colts head coach, and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon left for Arizona to be the Cardinals’ head coach.

Quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson has taken over the offensive play-calling duties, so there is some familiarity and continuity there. Sean Desai comes over from Seattle to run the defense and hasn’t pushed all the right buttons just yet. The Eagles had an NFL-high 70 sacks last year, but have just four through three games from three players total.

The fact that Desai spent last year in Seattle with Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales should make for an interesting chess match.

“Sean and I got to spend a good amount of time together, just bouncing off thoughts about structure of defense and different things like that,” Canales said. “He’s really sharp. I played against him in 2021 when Chicago came to Seattle – snow game. He had some cool stuff for us. He had some great adjustments for every situation – it seemed like it was tailormade.

“It didn’t feel like he was just calling plays out of a hat, necessarily, or just rotating calls. They were very specific, very intentional. It’ll be a good challenge.”

While the Eagles haven’t played their best football, they have the talent to erupt at any time. Philly has the advantage of having 10 days to rest, heal up and study the Bucs after beating the Vikings on Thursday Night Football in Week 2.

“It’s early. They’ve tweaked some things – obviously, you want to tweak some things every year,” Todd Bowles said this week. “Both are very good coaches. I liked Brian myself, when I could get a chance to at least talk to him [for the Bucs offensive coordinator position]. The other one, [Desai] has been great for a while now. They’re playing good football – playing good ball.”

FAB 2. 5 Key Players Who Must Step Up On Bucs Offense

In order for Tampa Bay to upset Philadelphia, these players either need to play better or continuing playing well on offense, depending on the Buccaneer.

C Robert Hainsey

Hainsey has been just average in his first two starts of the season at center. He has a 52.2 Pro Football Focus grade with a 37.3 pass blocking grade and a 55.8 run blocking grade. The worrisome aspect of Hainsey’s game so far? He really hasn’t faced any stellar opponents yet. That will change on Monday Night Football when he’ll face a trio of former first-round picks in Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter.

The 6-foot-6, 336-pound Davis is a massive monster, Carter is uber-athletic and Cox is a wily vet who can still rush the passer and stuff the run. Hainsey needs to play his best football of the season and not get blown up in the middle of the Bucs’ offensive line. The third-year center has allowed seven pressures and has been flagged for a penalty through two games and must play better against the Eagles.

RG Cody Mauch

Mauch struggled at times last week with Bears rookie defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. He’ll face a much bigger test this week against the Eagles trio of Cox, Davis and Carter mentioned above. Is the rookie up for the challenge? Mauch has a 49 PFF grade, but it comes with a twist. He has an 83.9 passing blocking grade and surprisingly low 36.5 run blocking grade.

Mauch has one penalty on the year, but just one pressure allowed. Not only will Mauch be tested by Philly’s talented defensive tackles, but he’ll have to contend with interior rushes from the edge rushers on twists, too. Mauch and right tackle Luke Goedeke will have to be on top of picking up stunts on Monday night.

RT Luke Goedeke

Many thought Goedeke might be the weak link on Tampa Bay’s offensive line this year with him moving from left guard to right tackle, which was the position he played in college. Through two games, Goedeke has only surrendered two pressures and one sack, but that was really Baker Mayfield’s fault for backing into it. Goedeke has a 72.8 PFF grade with a 75.3 pass blocking grade and a 72.2 run blocking grade.

If there is one area Goedeke can improve, it’s penalties. He’s already been flagged three times in two games. Facing a triple threat on the edge of Brandon Graham, Haason Reddick and Nolan Smith will be a massive challenge. Goedeke has struggled with speed rushers, and Reddick and Smith can flat out fly.

QB Baker Mayfield

Mayfield has shown an uncanny ability to dip and duck out of sacks thus far through two games, but he hasn’t faced a defense with as much talent as Philadelphia’s yet this season. He’s only been sacked once, and that was his fault for backing into Danielle Hunter in Week 1. With the Eagles’ talented front seven, Mayfield will be under more duress in this game than the other two he’s played in with the revamped offensive line.

Mayfield’s steady play has him not trying to do too much with the football, and he’s avoided interceptions while completing 69% of his passes with three touchdowns. He’s Pro Football Focus’ third-highest graded QB with an 82.6 grade behind Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (90.9) and Patrick Mahomes (83). Playing turnover-free football yet again is critical to the Bucs upsetting the Eagles.

WR Chris Godwin

Mike Evans has erupted this season with close to 300 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. Godwin has been more of a chain-mover than a playmaker thus far, although his 11-yard catch on a third-and-10 at Minnesota proved to be the game-clinching grab. Godwin has 10 catches for 109 yards, and that hasn’t made fantasy football players happy. But that doesn’t mean that Godwin can’t explode with a big game at any time.

Monday night against the Eagles might be that game. Godwin has spent more time outside this year, but could see more snaps in the slot where’s he’s played almost exclusively since 2019. The reason? Slot cornerback Avante Maddox and middle linebacker Nakobe Dean are on injured reserve, and safety Reed Blankenship has been banged up. The middle of the Eagles defense might be susceptible to some big plays.

FAB 3. 5 Key Players Who Must Step Up On Bucs Defense

In order for Tampa Bay to upset Philadelphia, these players either need to play better or continuing playing well on defense, depending on the Buccaneer.

CB Jamel Dean

Dean has had a sub-par start to the 2023 season so far. Dean was one of the higher-graded cornerbacks last year, but has a 47.7 PFF grade through two games. He’s excelled in run support (78.6), but his coverage grade of 41.8 is concerning.

Is he dealing with an unreported minor injury? It almost seems like it. Dean is the fastest player on defense, but hasn’t showcased that speed enough. Whether he’s tasked with defending A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, Dean will have to play his best game of the year.

OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

Tryon-Shoyinka had his best game as a pro last week against the Bears with two sacks. He played fast, physical and confident and also tallied seven total pressures, including three hurries and a pair of QB hits as well.

Whether he’s facing Jordan Mailata or Lane Johnson, he’s in for a real fight as the Eagles have a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber offensive tackles. Tryon-Shoyinka can’t back down from the challenge. He doesn’t necessarily have to have a two-sack game, but he has to put pressure on Jalen Hurts and he can’t miss sack opportunities when they are presented to him.

NT Vita Vea

Perhaps no Bucs defender is off to a hotter start than nose tackle Vita Vea, who had 1.5 sacks in last week’s win over Chicago. Vea has a 78.2 PFF grade through two games and has played an instrumental role in helping Tampa Bay’s stout run defense, which is second in the league, allowing just 54 yards per game.

Vea will need to rise to the occasion once again and dominate a lighter center in Jason Kelce and shut down Philly’s interior run game. The big 350-pounder has shown great stamina for the first two weeks and needs to continue to be a force as a pass rusher on Monday night. Vea has five pressures on the season so far.

ILB Devin White

White had a quiet game versus the Bears after erupting for 12 tackles in the season opener at Minnesota. The fifth-year linebacker earned a 90.7 game grade from Pro Football Focus, but had a 31.5 PFF grade last week. Consistency will be key for White this season, and he needs to up the production against Philly on Monday night.

White was robbed of a strip-sack from instant replay as he got to Justin Fields a split-second too late. Whether it’s spying Jalen Hurts on Monday night or blitzing him, White needs to make his presence felt.

SS Ryan Neal

Neal has had a slow, underwhelming start to his first season in Tampa Bay. He’s had a PFF grade of 62.2 overall, 85.4 in run defense, 52.7 in pass rush and 54 in coverage. That last grade is the most concerning for the Bucs. Neal has allowed a perfect passer rating of 158.3 so far, surrendering five catches on five targets for 68 yards and a touchdown.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said he’s still learning what Neal does best and will plan on emphasizing his strengths and minimizing his weaknesses moving forward. Tampa Bay can’t afford to have any miscommunication that results in busted coverages on Monday night. Neal can’t be the weak link of the defense.

FAB 4. Examining Philadelphia’s Weaknesses

The Eagles have plenty of strengths. It starts up front with a front seven that boasts seven former first-round picks.

Philly’s defense is the best in the league at stopping the run, and the offensive line and the combination of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles running backs give the team one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks.

The trio of wide receivers DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown and tight end Dallas Goedert is quite dangerous too, especially when Philly’s offense is balanced and aided by a strong running game.

So where are the weaknesses that the Bucs can exploit on Monday night? Let’s take a look at the Eagles offense first.

While Philly’s offense is a strength, left guard Cam Jurgens is the worst player up front, evidenced by a Pro Football Focus grade of 56.2, including a 51.9 grade in run blocking. Whether it’s Vita Vea, Logan Hall or Calijah Kancey should he be able to play, beating Jurgens up front could help derail Philly’s interior run game and allow the middle of the pass protection to be breached.

Center Jason Kelce is still going strong at age 35 and is as experienced as they come. But he’s 6-foot-3, 295 pounds and will have his hands full with Vea, the 350-pound nose tackle. Kelce will likely have to help Jerguns out on some plays with double teams, but the Bucs need to win the battle of the interior line to have a chance to be successful.

On defense, the middle of the Eagles defense has been ravaged with injuries. Starting middle linebacker Nakobe Dean is on injured reserve, as is starting slot cornerback Avonte Maddox. Backup middle linebacker Zach Cunningham is dinged up with a rib injury, as is free safety Reed Blankenship, yet both are expected to play. Mario Goodrich, an undrafted free agent out of Clemson in 2022, is expected to replace Maddox in the slot.

This could open things in the middle of the field for Tampa Bay to attack via the pass. Whether it’s Chris Godwin moving back into the slot for a more regular role on Monday Night Football or a combination of Godwin, Mike Evans or Trey Palmer rotating through the slot, it would seem like offensive coordinator Dave Canales would want to probe the seam to test Goodrich.

FAB 5. Bucs Can’t Let Monday’s Outcome Derail Them

If the Bucs somehow upset the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Tampa Bay will have to turn the 24-hour rule into the 24-minute rule. The team can’t afford to celebrate toppling the defending NFC champions into Tuesday. It’s going to be a short week with a very important game coming up at New Orleans.

The Bucs will need to rest up, heal up and focus on handling business in their first NFC South game of the year in a very hostile environment. As much as beating the Eagles would be something to celebrate, a win over the division rival Saints would mean more to Tampa Bay. Plus, the Bucs would want to go into their early bye week with some momentum – either at 3-1 with a victory in New Orleans, or a surprising 4-0 if they can beat the Eagles and Saints in consecutive weeks.

Conversely, should the Bucs lose on Monday night, they have to flush the loss immediately. Tampa Bay can’t get too high with a win and can’t get too low should it lose on Monday Night Football. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is as even-keeled as they come, so that helps when it comes to post-game messaging.

Ultimately, the Bucs can’t let the Eagles beat them twice and let anything other than injuries, which the team can’t control, linger into the Saints game. Whether it’s beating the Eagles or the Saints – or both – the Bucs need to be no worse than 3-1 heading into the bye week.

Tampa Bay started off the season 2-0 last year, but was 2-2 after the first month of the 2022 campaign. As a result, the Bucs hovered around .500 all season and was 5-5 at the bye week. Tampa Bay finished 8-9 and never won more than two games in a row at any point in the season. The key to avoiding being a .500 team could be a 3-1 record at the bye before the Lions come to town on Oct. 15.

The post SR’s Fab 5: Are Bucs Catching Eagles At The Right Time? appeared first on Pewter Report.