Seven Stats & Expectation Trends for Week 17 (Fantasy Football)

In this series, I walk through seven trends that I’m seeing evolve as the season progresses. All data, unless otherwise specified, comes from nflfastR. LET’S BRING HOME SOME CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!

Math Behind the Matchups (Passing)

We can break down passing yardage by distance: checkdown, short, mid, and deep passes based on air yardage. Here are the leaders over the last three weeks for pass-catchers:

From here, we can analyze which defenses perform best against different positions. This performance is vs. expectation: that is, it accounts for the strength of the opposing offense. We don’t want to punish a defense that gives up a lot of QB points to the Dallas Cowboys; we also don’t want to credit a defense that holds the New England Patriots wide receivers to a low-scoring total.

Here are some of my takeaways:

• The Baltimore Ravens‘ defense has been fearsome against just about every fantasy position (their numbers are especially juiced because of the beat-down against the normally high-flying San Francisco 49ers last week). We don’t expect the Ravens to shut down every opponent, every week…but I can promise I’m looking for options other than Tua Tagovailoa (the Ravens’ Week 17 opponent), who hasn’t scored over 20 fantasy points since Week 8. The same goes for Jaylen Waddle, although you have to start Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert. no matter the matchup.
• We all thought a Week 17 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals would be amazing…unfortunately, the Chiefs are reeling and the Bengals are without Joe Burrow. Still, Cincy’s defense is bottom of the barrel against QBs, RBs, and WRs, and is pretty shabby against tight ends. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had a top-13 QB performance since Week 12, but I don’t think you get ‘cute’ here and try a streaming option: stick with Mahomes in a bounce-back spot.
• It’s pretty wild how much worse the Indianapolis Colts are at stopping the run compared to…everyone else. That’s good news for the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17, and specifically, Zamir White, who is probably getting the starting nod yet again with Josh Jacobs continuing to be sidelined with injury. White put up 145 yards on 6.6 yards per carry on Christmas against the Chiefs; if he’s somehow on your waiver wire, he’s a must-start. In dynasty, he’s a really great trade option: Jacobs hits free agency this offseason while White has two more years on a rookie deal.

Math Behind the Matchups (Rushing)

We can break out yardage for rushers based on where the play took place:

And what defenses have allowed:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been sneakily bad against middle- and right-facing runs, which is exactly where the Carolina Panthers have preferred to focus their ground attacks. Chuba Hubbard is a really solid flex or even RB2 start: he’s had five straight weeks of double-digit fantasy performances, and 22 opportunities per game in that span.

On the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings have shut down runs of all sorts. Aaron Jones had a nice 127-yard performance last week and should be started in most cases…but there’s a chance you have a better option than a tough divisional matchup. AJ Dillon can be left on the bench.

Big Play Mavens

Volume is an important aspect of fantasy: we generally want players who are seeing a lot of work vs. players who make a couple of big plays out of their few opportunities. Here are players ranked by how many points they’ve scored from their top 20% of receiving plays:

Sam LaPorta got us again: after a 26.1, TE1 performance in Week 15, he let you down with 3.3 points in Week 16. In fact, his last four TE finishes are TE1, TE32, TE1, and TE37. That’s just the nature of boom/bust: you probably have to start LaPorta, but you need to be aware when building the rest of your roster!

Tyler Lockett finally had a solid, 12.1-point game on 11 targets in Week 16. He’s only scored four times (and not since Week 10) this season…but he’s averaging 7.5 targets per game. The Seahawks are right in the middle of the playoff hunt and will need to lean on their veterans; Lockett is a solid, high-volume flex play (which is totally different from his status as a boom/bust player earlier in his career!).

Over/Underachievers

In this section, I use a simple regression model that uses air yards, targets, and defensive ability to predict how many fantasy points a player should score, and compare that to how many they actually score. An overachieving player might be one who catches a few TDs on only a couple of targets; an underachieving one sees a lot of targets (against a bad defense) and doesn’t do much with them. Here are the standouts:

It is no surprise to see George Pickens atop this list with nearly 25 more points than expected: he took six targets (and just four catches) and turned them into 195 yards and two scores. That was enough to bring him to the WR26 on the season…but it certainly hasn’t felt like a WR26 year. Pickens has been the weekly WR39 or worse ten times this year. The matchup is solid against Seattle, and the upside is obviously there, but you have to be careful.

On the other hand, poor Deebo Samuel: just 7.4 fantasy points (honestly, respectable) and a massive L to his team. Deebo got 12 targets, though, tying his season-high, and had been averaging 25.8 PPG in the four-game stretch before the Ravens debacle. Roll with Deebo with confidence.

Hidden Statistics

One of my biggest pet peeves in fantasy football is that receivers don’t get credit for drawing defensive pass interference penalties. The ball still moves down the field, after all! Using a similar regression model to the ‘under/over’ achievers section, here’s how many ‘expected’ points were obscured by DPI calls:

Let’s shout out Romeo Doubs, who had a great 15.9-point performance last week (his best outing since Week 1). The crazy thing: it could have been even better. Doubs is certainly far from a must-start, especially against a tough Vikings defense, but he’s a nice upside flex play in deeper leagues (especially to stack with Jordan Love).

The Correlation Game

Fantasy football is often about matchups. Maybe you’re projected to beat your opponent, but their most explosive player is Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps to try to ‘cap’ their roster’s potential, you opt for Rashee Rice in the flex instead of Jaylen Warren. After all, if Mahomes has a monster game, Rashee Rice could participate in the upside, and you could be able to ride the wave.

It’s surprising that Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco are so correlated since there hasn’t been much of a ‘pie’ to go around in Kansas City. It’s also surprising that Stefon Diggs and James Cook are so negatively correlated; this could speak to the Buffalo Bills either having a game where they really focus on the pass or really focus on the run. Against the New England Patriots this week, I’m guessing it will be the latter.

Defense Wins Championships

Well, it could. Here’s a fun chart that shows which defenses are apt to give up big plays, or force their opponent backward.

It’s a pretty interesting week for defense: I don’t really want to start top units like the Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys against good offenses like the Bengals (well, competent offenses) and the Detroit Lions. But the Buffalo Bills, who clamp down on big plays and are facing backup Bailey Zappe? Yes please.

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