Rogers Cup tennis preview, predictions and best bets: Gauff goes for back-to-back titles

We are coming down the stretch toward the U.S. Open, the fourth and final Grand Slam of the tennis season. There are 3 weeks to go, and 2 of them feature 1000-point tournaments – the biggest and best tournaments in the world outside of the 4 slams. It’s Canada followed by Cincinnati, and they are joint events with both men and women taking the court (albeit in 2 different cities). Novak Djokovic isn’t playing, but among those heading north of the border for the Rogers Cup are Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Iga Swiatek and Washington, D.C. champion Coco Gauff.

Here are the odds and my picks for this week’s festivities in Toronto (men) and Montreal (women).

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ATP Toronto odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Carlos Alcaraz +150
Daniil Medvedev +410
Jannik Sinner +1000
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1200
Alexander Zverev +1600
Andrey Rublev +1600
Taylor Fritz +1600
Holger Rune +2000
Alex de Minaur +4000
Frances Tiafoe +4000
Casper Ruud +4000

3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+410)

As Medvedev announced to the world during a rant to a chair umpire at the Indian Wells tournament in March of this season, he is a hard-court specialist. The world No 3 absolutely loves these courts and this time of year. He is a 2-time finalist in Canada (2019 champion, 2021 runner-up) and he won the U.S. Open in 2021. Coming off a semifinal showing at Wimbledon, Medvedev is playing well and set up well for more success on North American hard courts. He has a favorable draw, too, opposite Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. 

2-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+1000)

Sinner’s draw isn’t the easiest with Tsitsipas in the same quarter and Alcaraz in the same half, but the Italian is good enough to navigate such waters. He advanced to the semifinals at Wimbledon (lost to Novak Djokovic) and is arguably even better on hard courts. Sinner is already a 2-time runner-up at hard-court Masters 1000s in North America (both in Miami); there is no reason why he can’t go all the way this time. 

1-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+1600)

Zverev is riding a wave of momentum, with a relatively recent semifinal result at the French Open followed by a title 2 weeks ago on the red clay of Hamburg. The German now moves to hard courts, on which he reached the final of the 2020 U.S. Open. Zverev won the Canada title in 2017. With a favorable draw on the same side as Medvedev, the world No 15 just might win it again.

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WTA Montreal odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook  

Iga Swiatek +200
Aryna Sabalenka +380
Elena Rybakina +440
Jessica Pegula +1100
Coco Gauff +1400
Karolina Muchova +2900
Marketa Vondrousova +2900
Maria Sakkari +3600
Elina Svitolina +3600
Madison Keys +3600
Liudmila Samsonova +3600
Qinwen Zheng +5000
Karolina Pliskova +5000
Marta Kostyuk +5000
Petra Kvitova +5000
Anastasia Potapova +5000
Carolina Garcia +5000
Beatriz Haddad Maia +5000
Victoria Azarenka +5000
Donna Vekic +5000
Daria Kasatkina +5000
Belinda Bencic +5000
Sloane Stephens +5000
Paula Badosa +5000
Jelena Ostapenko +5000 

3-star value play: Coco Gauff (+1400)

At short prices between +200 and +440, I just don’t see any value on any member of the proverbial “Big 3” on the WTA Tour. As such, I will look toward relative longshots in Montreal. The most intriguing one is Gauff, who just won the biggest title of her career this past week in Washington, D.C. Sure, fatigue could be a factor; but for a mercurial player like Gauff, momentum is more important. Plus, it’s not like she will be overly tired. The 19-year-old American completely dominated on her way to the D.C. trophy; she did not lose a set in the whole tournament and did not even get pushed to a single tiebreaker. I expect her to remain on a roll this week.

2-star value play: Petra Kvitova (+5000)

My biggest win of the season so far has come on Kvitova, who triumphed for me in Miami at 100/1 odds. Somewhat inexplicably, you can still get the veteran Czech at half that price in Montreal. Conditions on the fast hard courts in Canada should be similar to those in Miami, so you have to like Kvitova’s chances. It should also be noted that Kvitova, who won this tournament in 2012, just got married last month. When you’re happy off the court, good things usually happen on the court.

1-star value play: Victoria Azarenka (+5000)

I will also put my eggs in another +5000 basket with Azarenka. The Belarusian is a 3-time semifinalist in Canada and she reached the quarters in 2021. Given her current form (she is back inside the top 20 at #19 in the rankings) and her draw (she wouldn’t have to face Aryna Sabalenka until the semis and either Swiatek or Gauff until the final), I expect more big things for Azarenka at this event.

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The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis predictions and picks from top events including the U.S. Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the Australian Open. 

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