Queipo’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Just under two weeks separate us and the 2023 NFL Draft. Most team needs have crystalized now that the first waves of free agency are in the rear-view mirror. With the Bucs picking 19th overall and most likely several talented tackles being available, there is a good chance that they will snag one in the first round.

This mock draft is a projection of what I think teams will do. It is not necessarily how I value the players involved or what I would do. But please feel free to point out where I am wrong. I promise you it will be difficult because I can guarantee you that this mock draft is 100% accurate. That is, of course, why I have it labeled 1.0 and there is zero chance I will do a “final” mock draft.

1. Carolina Panthers – QB Bryce Young, Alabama

The Panthers didn’t trade a massive haul to move up from #9 to #1 for anything other than a quarterback to jumpstart their franchise. But the question is which one?

There are legitimate cases to be made for Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson. But the most likely of the three is Young.

Young is the consensus best quarterback in this draft. His tape shows every skill a team would want in a franchise quarterback. He has pocket presence, touch, requisite arm strength, and read progression. Young’s most impressive feature may be his ability to attack the middle of the field. And there are rumors that Young scored extremely well on his C2 cognitive test.

Young isn’t perfect. There are real concerns about his size. But that’s about it. As long as Carolina feels as if those size concerns are overblown, Young should be the pick, as he is the most pro-ready signal caller in the draft.

2. Houston Texans – TRADE – Indianapolis Colts – QB Anthony Richardson, Florida

Many mock drafts predict that Colts GM Chris Ballard will move up from #4 to #3 in order to make sure they don’t get the runt of the litter out of the top four quarterbacks in the draft. And while I think that the motivation for moving up on the Colts’ part is logical, I am wondering why they would stop at #3.

Ballard loves quarterbacks with huge traits; no one has bigger traits than Richardson, who stood out at the NFL Combine. New head coach Shane Steichen just came from Philadelphia, where he successfully implemented a system that relied on a fast athletic quarterback. This will give Richardson a high floor while he continues to develop as a passer.

3. Arizona Cardinals – EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama

With the Colts trading past Arizona, they can’t find a trade partner to leverage and stick and pick in the #3 spot. There are some rumblings that the Cardinals could take Tyree Wilson out of Texas Tech. However, new general manager Monti Ossenfort spent 14 years in New England, where they have typically valued edge defenders who are more multifaceted. Anderson is a bit more versatile than Wilson. Plus, Anderson is just better.

4. Indianapolis Colts – TRADE – Houston Texans – QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

This is year one of the DeMeco Ryans era and the Texans aren’t just a quarterback away from competing. That is why the team is comfortable moving down and potentially missing out on two additional quarterbacks after Carolina selects at one. The Texans, needing ample help on defense, would have multiple options on that side of the ball.

But in this scenario, they still can pick a talented face of the franchise in Stroud. Stroud boasts the best accuracy in the draft and showed improved pocket presence toward the end of 2022. Especially when facing that vaunted Georgia defense in the college football playoffs.

5. Seattle Seahawks – DT Jalen Carter, Georgia

Carter has largely put to bed the legal question marks he was facing around the time of the NFL combine. However, those were just a part of larger character concerns that circle him. The Seahawks have never been shy about taking risks on players with such concerns and Carter is quite probably a top-three player in this draft in pure talent and tape.

His presence up the middle for the Georgia Bulldogs’ defense is a big reason why they were able to win back-to-back National Championships.

Pairing him with newly signed Shelby Harris would give Seattle legitimate juice in the center of their defensive line to help improve on that side of the ball.

6. Detroit Lions – EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech

The Lions have put together a roster that allows them to go in any number of ways at this pick. Their two most glaring holes are at quarterback and linebacker and neither position lines up well at this pick. But with another pick later in the first, the Lions don’t have to force one of those positions at six.

Last year the Lions selected Aiden Hutchinson and James Houston last year, but as both the Eagles and 49ers have proven, you can never have enough. Wilson has an amazing physical profile with size, length, and a nasty long-arm that should play right away.

7. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Will Levis, Kentucky

The Raiders have plenty of holes on their roster and just signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a sizeable contract. However, they can move on from Jimmy G in 2024 if they so choose. This fuels their decision to not move up for a quarterback but take advantage of the big-armed Levis falling to them.

Levis has the arm to make highlight-reel plays and showed good tape in 2021. 2022 was a whole other story for him as his supporting cast dropped off of a cliff, and he was unable to really elevate what was left over. Vegas gives him an opportunity to sit a year behind Garoppolo before potentially taking over in 2024.

8. Atlanta Falcons – EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson

The Falcons have made a concerted effort to improve their defense this off-season. Murphy would be the culmination of those moves. Murphy would be paired with last year’s 2nd round pick Arnold Ebiketie to potentially give the Falcons a decent pass rush for the first time since they were in the Super Bowl.

Much like Levis one pick before him, Murphy’s most promising tape comes from 2021, where he was much more dominant. In 2022 Murphy battled nagging injuries which limited his effectiveness. In him, Atlanta would be getting a physical specimen whose athletic testing is extremely impressive.

9. Chicago Bears – EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa

The Bears finish up a run on edge rushers by selecting Van Ness to help improve a pass rush that currently features DeMarcus Walker as their top guy. The Iowa rusher would bring intimidating size to the Bears’ defensive line as he profiles at 6’5 and 272 pounds.

Head coach Matt Eberflus is a defensive-minded coach and it makes sense that he would start to build up a defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year.

10. Philadelphia Eagles – OL Peter Skoronski, Northwestern

The Eagles and general manager Howie Roseman have shown that building through the trenches is important to their roster-building model.

Skoronski is potentially the best overall offensive lineman in this draft, with positional flexibility between tackle and guard. He could potentially move into the starting right guard spot vacated by Isaac Seumalo, who just signed with the Steelers this offseason.

11. Tennessee Titans – OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State

Johnson has regularly been mocked in the top 10, so if the draft were to fall this way, I think the Titans would sprint this pick in.

The team was let down by an underachieving offensive line last year. They recently parted ways with longtime left tackle Taylor Lewan, and Johnson would be a plug-and-play replacement to start the rebuild.

12. Houston Texans – EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia

After losing Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to free agency, the Texans are devoid of pass rush talent. Smith had an all-time NFL combine that had Smith shooting up draft boards into the first round.

There is practically no ceiling to his athleticism. And despite his smaller size and diminished weight, Smith has proven to be a strong run defender who can potentially blossom into an elite pass rusher.

13. New York Jets – OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee

The Jets battled through last season and almost made it to the Playoffs despite losing an offensive tackle practically every other week.

While former first-round pick Mekhi Becton could return from a season-ending injury and finally fulfill his massive potential, the odds are the Jets want to shore up the position group with new blood. Wright has seen his stock rise recently and has the frame the Jets seem to like at 6’5 and 333 pounds.

14. New England Patriots – CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick ideally wants to play press-man with his corners and Gonzalez has the length and strength to be able to run that system.

Gonzalez is the type of corner you draw up in a lab combining height, speed, and change-of-direction skills while playing with a rarely-found smoothness. New England makes for a logical spot to take the first corner off the board in a deep corner class with Gonzalez.

15. Green Bay Packers – TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

Oh, the irony of the Packers finally selecting a skill position player in the first round in the year they are bound to trade quarterback Aaron Rodgers away. The Pack lost serviceable starter Robert Tonyan to the division-rival Bears. Kincaid is a natural pass catcher who can make plays both at the catch point as well as after it. He would provide a useful security blanket for assumed starter Jordan Love.

16. Washington Commanders – CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois

Witherspoon easily has the most dominant tape of any of the corners in this draft class. However, there are some questions that could reasonably keep him from being the first corner off the board.

While so many of his draft classmates have prototypical size, Witherspoon does not crack the magic six-foot mark. However, Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera does not require that of his corners and Witherspoon could slot into a corner room with Kyle Fuller and Benjamin St. Juste while eventually replacing Fuller down the road.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma

Harrison is a quality tackle who could step into the starting lineup of a Steelers line that struggled last year and immediately elevate it. Harrison’s presence would help protect second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett and possibly improve the Steelers’ run game as well. For a team that at one time boasted a quality offensive line that has since devolved into a poor unit overall, Harrison represents a step in the right direction to get back to where they once were.

18. Detroit Lions – OG Steve Avila, TCU

While cornerback is a popular first-round choice for the Lions, two things push me away from mocking one of them with either of their picks in the first round. First, they worked diligently in free agency to shore up their secondary, signing CJ Garnder-Johnson and Cameron Sutton. Second, they have not shown much interest in top cornerbacks in their pre-draft process. Avila would be able to slot into the starting right guard role and assist the Lions in continuing to have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OT Broderick Jones, Georgia

The Bucs get a tackle to fill the gaping hole they currently sport at the position. But it’s not one of the 2-3 tackles that are consistently mocked to the team. While Darnell Wright has been shooting up draft boards, Jones seems to be falling a bit.

It could be due to his lack of starting experience at the collegiate level. Regardless, Jones has the build and movement skills to be a Bucs fit. If he is available at 19, there is a good chance the Bucs would put the pick in a formula one car to get it to the podium as fast as possible.

Check out this video breaking down his film from Thinking Football on YouTube.

20. Seattle Seahawks – CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State

There are certain matches that just seem made in heaven. And Joey Porter Jr.’s length, wing span, and the Seattle Seahawks’ defense are one of those matches. Pairing Porter Jr. with last year’s fifth-round pick revelation Tariq Woolen would give the team their ideal starting perimeter corners that will disrupt passing lanes for years to come.

21. Miami Dolphins – Forfeited Pick

Bahahahahahahahaha

22. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Quentin Johnston, TCU

Johnston has a large frame and a big catch radius. Two qualities that are sorely missing from the bulk of this year’s wide receiver draft class. As the Chargers hope to improve their downfield passing attack Johnston can add an additional field stretcher to help take advantage of the launching pad known as Justin Herbert’s arm.

23. Baltimore Ravens – QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

The Lamar Jackson saga does not look like it will be resolved, with him and the team continuing their contract standoff.

With Hooker being a talented quarterback in his own right, the Ravens jump on the opportunity to grab their next signal-caller without having to give up significant draft capital.

If Jackson is moved, 2022 Pro-Bowler Tyler Huntley could be their 2023 stopgap while Hooker continues to recover from a torn ACL, which puts the team in a position to become a playoff contender once more in 2024 with Hooker at the helm.

24. Minnesota Vikings – CB Deonte Banks, Maryland

After losing the ageless Patrick Peterson to free agency, the Vikings select a 6’0 corner of around 195 pounds in the first round for the second year in a row. Lining up Banks across from last year’s first-round pick Andrew Booth Jr. would be a dream for new defensive coordinator Brian Flores who likes to run a press-man-heavy system. Banks is at his best in such a system and enjoys getting hands-on receivers. He had some silly reps in college where he would press a receiver halfway across the field.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Cam Smith, South Carolina

Following the release of Shaquill Griffin, the Jaguars decide to replace him with the instinctual corner from South Carolina. Smith was a top-30 visit for the Jags and can help step into their secondary right away.

26. New York Giants – OC John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota

The Giants’ line was not a strength for them last year. However, they are starting to build something with it and John Michael Schmitz can pair with the two bookend tackles they already have in place to make it better than it was last year.

27. Dallas Cowboys – DT Mazi Smith, Michigan

While Calijah Kancey and Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adeboware are still on the board here, the Cowboys select Smith to give them a talented nose tackle to complement their already fearsome defensive front seven.

While Smith lacks the ceiling of the other two players as a pass rusher, he provides a much higher floor with upside potential. If Dallas can teach him to pass rush from a better stance, they can get even more out of him.

28. Buffalo Bills – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

There is a good chance Smith-Njigba is the most talented receiver in this draft. However, he will most likely be relegated to a slot-only role which diminishes his value in the draft. The back of the first round feels right for where he may be taken, and the Bills could use a compliment to Stefon Diggs.

JSN’s addition would provide the offense and quarterback Josh Allen with a reliable volume catcher in the slot that could free up Diggs and Gabriel Davis on the outside.

29. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

There are, at this point, thousands upon thousands of words that have been both written and uttered about Bijan Robinson’s talent.

The man is a complete back. And barring injury, he should be able to come right in and make an immediate impact. Back in March, Pewter Report even discussed Robinson with Rachaad White, the Bucs lead back heading into 2023.

Joe Mixon, the Bengals’ current starting back, struggled last year and the system he works best in is the system the team moved away from last year. Add in the fact that Mixon is now facing a misdemeanor aggravated menacing charge, and Mixon may not be long for the team. Robinson could step in as yet another weapon on a very dangerous offense.

30. New Orleans Saints – TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

Mayer would give new quarterback Derek Carr a reliable pair of hands as a security blanket while also hitting the ground running as a plus blocker. He is a high-floor player who would represent great value at the back end of the first round.

31. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Calijah Kancey, Pitt

It’s almost not fair. Kancey has the potential to be at his greatest paired with a massive nose tackle who can eat up double teams. This would allow Kancey to work one-on-one against a single blocker where his pass rush arsenal can really shine. Next to last year’s first-round pick Jordan Davis, Kancey would have just that chance.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – EDGE Will McDonald, Iowa State

Despite all of their success, the Chiefs are still in search of more pass-rush help to complement defensive tackle Chris Jones. Last year they took a step forward in that department with a bigger edge in George Karlaftis. This year they compliment those two with the smaller, faster McDonald, who plays bigger than his size and brings juice to every snap.

So there y’all have it. What do you say, Bucs fans? Which picks do you see coming to fruition? Where am I way off? Let me know in the comments.