Pewter Report’s 2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft 2.0

Nothing has changed from a personnel needs standpoint since Pewter Report’s first 2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft. With 23 unrestricted free agents and looming salary cap troubles, Tampa Bay has the second-worst cap situation in the league (over by $55,031,921 per OverTheCap.com), this remains the most challenging Bucs mock draft Pewter Report has ever done. Tampa Bay’s roster between now and April when our final Bucs mock draft will be released, so again, take these initial Bucs mock draft with a grain of salt.

The Bucs – and Pewter Report – scouted the talent in Mobile, Alabama at the 2023 Senior Bowl this week, and up next is the NFL Scouting Combine. Let’s look at Tampa Bay’s team needs before deciding which players Pewter Report thinks general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles will select in 2023.

Bucs’ Personnel Needs

Quarterback

Former second-round pick Kyle Trask is the only quarterback under contract. But entering his third season, Trask has been slow to develop, and will now begin learning a second system after the team fired offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen and others. Tom Brady retired, and that has negatively impacted the Bucs’ search for a new offensive coordinator. Just because this is the Bucs’ top need doesn’t mean they’ll draft a quarterback in the first round – or at all – as the team may turn to free agency for a QB like Jacoby Brissett or Baker Mayfield.

Safety

Antoine Winfield Jr. and Nolan Turner are the only safeties currently under contract. Mike Edwards, Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal are unrestricted free agents. It’s likely at least two of those veterans return. The Bucs could certainly draft another safety and nearly selected Georgia’s Lewis Cine with their first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft a year ago. This year’s draft class has a good amount of quality safeties.

Edge Rusher

Tampa Bay’s two starters – Shaquil Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – return in 2023. But Barrett will turn 30 and is coming off a torn Achilles. Anthony Nelson, Carl Nassib and Genard Avery are all unrestricted free agents, and the Bucs would like to have at least two of them return. But the Bucs are worried that Tryon-Shoyinka might not live up to his first-round billing and will likely want to add another edge rusher. The 2023 NFL Draft is quite deep at Edge.

Cornerback

Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are slated to be free agents, and Dean could be the top cornerback available in March. It will be tough for the Bucs to have two cornerbacks averaging a combined $28 million or more per year, as the team just re-signed Carlton Davis III last year to a three-year deal worth just over $14 million per season. If Dean returns, cornerback becomes less of a need because the team is still high on Zyon McCollum, a fifth-round pick from last year. This year’s draft class is very deep at cornerback.

Linebacker

Lavonte David will be an unrestricted free agent at age 33. The Bucs would like to re-sign him, but it will have to be for less than the $12.5 million he made last year. If David, who was the Bucs’ best and most consistent defender in 2022, doesn’t return then linebacker becomes a huge need in Tampa Bay. K.J. Britt, J.J. Russell and Ulysses Gilbert III are special teamers and reserves, and none of them have the athleticism and instincts to start and replace David. There are a few good linebackers in this draft class, but it’s not deep.

Interior Defensive Line

Tampa Bay has two starters under contract in 2023 in Vita Vea and Logan Hall, who was last year’s top pick. Hall was a reserve last year and needs to add about 20 pounds of muscle and bulk in order to be ready to start this season. But there are a host of other veterans who are slated for free agency, including Akiem Hicks, Will Gholston, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Pat O’Connor and Deadrin Senat. Some, but not all of those veterans will return. How high of a need defensive line is in this year’s draft will be predicated on how many veterans return. There are some decent defensive tackles, but it’s not a deep draft at the position.

Tight End

The Bucs will likely move on from veteran Cam Brate, who turns 32 this summer, in order to save $2 million in cap room. Seldom-used veteran Kyle Rudolph is a free agent and won’t return. Tampa Bay drafted two tight ends last year in Cade Otton and Ko Kieft, but will likely have to add two more this year. One could come in a very deep and talented draft at the tight end position.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans turns 30 in August and is entering a contract year, while Chris Godwin continues his road back from a torn ACL at the end of the 2021 season. Both combined for just nine touchdowns last year after totaling 19 together in 2021. Russell Gage signed a three-year, $30 million deal last year, but was a huge disappointment, averaging a pedestrian 8.4 yards per catch. The Bucs might move on from Gage this offseason, and if they do receiver becomes a huge need as Deven Thompkins, an undrafted free agent, would be the current No. 3. Julio Jones, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller are free agents and likely won’t return. This is not a deep draft at receiver.

Offensive Tackle

The Bucs have a huge decision to make regarding left tackle Donovan Smith, who is coming off his worst season and turns 30 this year. Smith is entering a contract year and Tampa Bay could save just under $10 million by trading or releasing him if he can be trusted after 12 penalties and six sacks surrendered in 2022. If the Bucs move on from Smith then tackle becomes a huge need. Top reserve Josh Wells is also a free agent and is coming off a torn patella and won’t be healthy until after the start of the 2023 season. The 2023 draft has a decent amount of quality tackles.

Running Back

The Bucs might entertain cutting Leonard Fournette, who turns 28 this year, to save over $3 million this offseason. Giovani Bernard is a free agent and won’t be back. That leaves just Rachaad White, who was in last year’s Pewter Report Bucs mock draft, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn on the roster. Look for the Bucs to add another running back with speed in April, as there are a fair amount of good runners in this year’s draft.

Bucs’ 2023 NFL Draft Picks

The Bucs currently have seven picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Tampa Bay traded its fourth-round pick to Jacksonville last year to trade up to select McCollum in the fifth round. The Bucs turned a seventh-rounder into a sixth-rounder by sending linebacker Grant Stuard to Indianapolis in August of 2022. Tampa Bay also gets the New York Jets’ seventh-round pick from the 2020 trade for defensive tackle Steve McLendon. The Bucs are expected to receive two additional compensatory picks – a fifth-rounder and a seventh-rounder – from the league later this spring.

Pewter Report’s 2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft 2.0 is presented by CELSIUS, the official energy drink of Pewter Report. Try the new Fantasy Vibe flavor, which is a refreshing mix of mandarin orange and marshmallow, and the new crisp Lemon Lime. To find CELSIUS near you, visit CELSIUS.com and click on the store locator. To purchase CELSIUS online visit Amazon.com and click on the subscribe and save feature to save money and have CELSIUS shipped right to your door.

2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft 2.0

ROUND 1: Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes
6-0, 180 • Junior

With Jamel Dean likely leaving for greener ($$$) pastures in free agency, the Bucs need to replenish their supply at cornerback and find one that’s starting-caliber. Forbes has started since his freshman season at Mississippi State and was an interception machine from the beginning with five INTs, including three pick-sixes.

Forbes totaled 14 interceptions in three seasons at Mississippi State playing opposite Martin Emerson his first two years, including six pick-sixes. The junior plays with great anticipation, and has some Ronde Barber-esque luck when it comes to being around the football. His wiry build might remind some Bucs fans of a slightly smaller version of Aqib Talib.

While he needs to add muscle to his lanky, 6-foot, 180-pound frame, Forbes has gotten tougher and become a better tackler over time. Yet he can still improve in this area, especially in run support, as that is not his strength.

But for a Bucs defense that was starved for turnovers, Forbes is a player that can deliver big plays against the pass. Tampa Bay had just 10 interceptions last season, which ranked near the bottom of the NFL.

Forbes’ Defensive Stats
2020: 45 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 6 PBUs, 5 INTs, 3 TDs
2021: 59 tackles, 5 TFLs, 4 PBUs, 3 INTs, FF
2022: 46 tackles TFL, 10 PBUs, 6 INTs, 3 TDs

The Bucs drafted one Mississippi State turnover machine in cornerback Johnthan Banks in the second round in 2013. Banks totaled 16 INTs in four seasons with the Bulldogs, and won the Jim Thorpe Award as a senior with four picks. But unlike Banks, who was taller at 6-foot-2, Forbes is much faster and a better athlete.

Forbes earned an 87.2 overall grade from Pro Football Focus in 2022, and his 44.7 passer rating allowed against QBs was one of the best among draft-eligible cornerbacks. He had an 89.3 coverage grade and surrendered just 31 catches for 284 yards and three touchdowns in 2022.

ROUND 2: TCU G Steve Avila
6-4, 330 • Senior

The Bucs fortify their left guard spot with the selection of Avila in the second round. Avila started at left guard for TCU in 2022 after spending most of the two previous seasons at center for the Horned Frogs.

With a strong, massive frame, Avila is a moving wall in pass protection where he didn’t allow a single sack last year, and just four total in his time at TCU. Avila allowed only four QB hits too, including two last season.

Avila needs to work on his run blocking, evidenced by his 66.6 grade from Pro Football Focus compared to his 83.6 grade in pass pro. He needs to work at attacking from a better angle, but has the athleticism to become a people-mover with better technique.

Licht has mined Day 2 for offensive linemen from the Senior Bowl in years past, including Donovan Smith (second round) and Ali Marpet (second round) in 2015, Alex Cappa in 2018 (third round), and Luke Goedeke (second round) in 2022. Avila was one of the best linemen at the Senior Bowl, and should replace Goedeke, who could move to right tackle as Tristan Wirfs could replace Smith at left tackle.

Smith, who is entering a contract year and coming off his worst season in Tampa Bay may be a salary cap casualty this offseason. The Bucs could trade Smith, who turns 30 this year, for a third-round or forth-round pick.

ROUND 3: Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
6-4, 304 • Senior

The Bucs address their defensive line in the third round with Brooks, who played defensive end last year at Bowling Green at 6-foot-4, 300 pounds. Brooks is a quick-twitch lineman who will move inside at the NFL level, and he’s already nearly 25 pounds heavier than Logan Hall, who was drafted in the second round last year.

Starting four years out of his five seasons at Bowling Green, Brooks was a sack machine, recording 27.5 sacks, including 10 as a senior. The vast majority of those sacks came in the lesser MAC conference, but he did notch sacks at Kansas State and at Tennessee.

With the Bucs having just Vita Vea and Hall under contract in 2023, the team could use more defensive linemen, and could be losing both Will Gholston and Akiem Hicks upfront. A starting trio of Vea, Hall and Brooks would give the Bucs a better pass rush upfront. Gholston didn’t record a sack last year and Hicks’ lone sack occurred in Week 18.

Brooks’ Defensive Stats
2018: 32 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks
2019: 33 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks
2020: 10 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks
2021: 42 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks
2022: 50 tackles, 18 TFLs, 10 sacks

Brooks starred at the Senior Bowl where he showed he belonged among Power 5 talent. He’ll need to get stronger to hold up against double teams along the interior, but his quick first step and powerful hands will certainly help him transition well to the NFL game.

ROUND 5: Pittsburgh RB Israel Abanikanda
5-11, 215 • Senior

With the Bucs likely cutting Leonard Fournette in a salary cap move, the team needs to pair Rachaad White with another starting-caliber running back. Abanikanda is a slasher, who thrived in a zone scheme, but he may not last until the fifth round. If he does he is a steal for Tampa Bay.

At 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, Abanikanda has the size to break tackles due to his excellent contact balance. He forced 46 missed tackles last year, according to Pro Football Focus, and he has breakaway speed once he gets to the second level.

Abanikanda was one of the more productive running backs in the nation last year with 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns, while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. He had 10 100-yard games for Pitt, including six straight to end his college career. Abanikanda’s best game came against Virginia Tech where he ran for 320 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 8.9 yards per carry.

Abanikanda’s Rushing Stats
2020: 28 carries for 95 yards (3.4 avg.), TD
2021: 123 carries for 651 yards (5.3 avg.), 7 TDs
2022: 239 carries for 1,431 yards (6 avg.), 20 TDs
 
Abanikanda’s Receiving Stats
2020: 2 rec. for 11 yards (5.5 avg.), TD
2021: 24 rec. for 197 yards (8.2 avg.), TD
2022: 12 rec. for 146 yards (12.2 avg.), TD

Abanikanda is also a good receiver out of the backfield with 38 career catches for 354 yards (9.3 avg.) and three TDs. And he can return kicks, finishing his Panthers career with a 22.8-yard average on 19 returns, including a 98-yard TD against Virginia in 2021.

ROUND 6: Central Michigan OLB Thomas Incoom
6-4, 260 • Senior

The Bucs turn back to defense on Day 3 with Incoom, who can help the team as an edge rusher. With Anthony Nelson, Carl Nassib and Genard Avery all slated to become free agents, and Shaq Barrett recovering from a torn Achilles, Incoom can add depth and pass-rushing ability to Tampa Bay’s defense.

Incoom is coming off a big senior season in which he recorded 11.5 sacks, a forced fumble and recovered two fumbles, including one he returned for a touchdowns. Adding in 16 tackles for loss, 13 sacks and four forced fumbles at Valdosta State before transferring to Central Michigan, Incoom notched 43.5 tackles for loss, 28.5 sacks and five forced fumbles in college.

Incoom’s Defensive Stats
2019: 33 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, 4 FFs, FR
2020: 28 tackles, 5 TFLs, 3 sacks
2021: 28 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 4 sacks
2022: 57 tackles, 19 TFLs, 11.5 sacks, 2 FRs, FF, TD

Incoom played primarily inside at defensive tackle at the Senior Bowl, which showed off his versatility and toughness. But at only 260 pounds, Incoom doesn’t have the frame to add 30-40 pounds of bulk. Instead, he’s better off as a powerful edge rusher in Tampa Bay.

ROUND 6: Purdue TE Payne Durham
6-5, 255 • Senior

With the Bucs likely making Cam Brate a salary cap casualty, Tampa Bay needs to add another tight end to the mix that already includes Cade Otton and Ko Kieft. All Durham did at Purdue was catch touchdowns. Just watch the highlight reel and you’ll see 21 of them during his four years for the Boilermakers, including 14 over the last two seasons.

While Payne is not an elite athlete with enough speed to elude defenders down the seam, he does use his body to box out DBs and linebackers quite well, especially in the red zone. And he also shows great toughness, tackle-breaking ability and plays with heart. Durham does not to work on his technique as a blocker, and could use 5-10 pounds of bulk to help him at the point of attack in the run game.

Durham’s Receiving Stats
2019: 9 rec. for 82 yards (9.1 avg.), 4 TDs
2020: 16 rec. for 166 yards (10.4 avg.), 3 TDs
2021: 45 rec. for 467 yards (10.4 avg.), 6 TDs
2022: 56 rec. for 560 yards (10 avg.), 8 TDs

Durham’s career 10-yard average won’t excite many teams, but his red zone production will. He also had an impressive Senior Bowl where he caught two passes for 24 yards and a two-point conversion. Durham also had an amazing, highlight-reel catch during Thursday’s Senior Bowl practice.

ROUND 7: Kansas State WR Malik Knowles
6-3, 200

The Bucs end the draft by selecting a big, developmental receiver in Knowles, who was a four-year starter at Kansas State. The Bucs could use another young receiver – and one with size – to pair with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Deven Thompkins, especially if Russell Gage is a salary cap casualty.

Knowles averaged 14.7 yards per catch and has the ability to hit the home run ball downfield, or be effective on wide receiver screens with his quickness. While he’s 6-foot-3, he doesn’t always compete for jump balls, so that’s an area he needs to work on at the next level – and one of the reasons why he’s a Day 3 pick.

Knowles didn’t have great QB play nor was he featured much in K-State’s run-heavy attack. He had just four 100-yard games for the Wildcats, but had four more games with 90 yards or more in receiving yardage. Knowles was dangerous on end arounds where his blazing speed averaged 12.2 yards per carry and allowed him to score four TDs, including three as a senior.

Knowles’ Receiving Stats
2018: 10 rec. for 100 yards (10 avg.), 2 TDs
2019: 27 rec. for 397 yards (14.7 avg.), 3 TDs
2020: 13 rec. for 204 yards (15.7 avg.), 3 TDs
2021: 29 rec. for 441 yards (15.2 avg.), 4 TDs
2022: 48 rec. for 725 yards (15.1 avg.), 2 TDs

Knowles’ Rushing Stats
2019: 7 carries for 70 yard (10 avg.)
2020: 6 carries for 100 yards (16.7 avg.), TD
2021: 15 carries for 106 yards (7.1 avg.)
2022: 8 carries for 164 yards (20.5 avg.), 3 TDs

Knowles was one of college football’s most dangerous kick returners, as he averaged 27.7 yards on 61 returns in his career, including three touchdowns. He could help Tampa Bay initially on special teams as he develops as a receiver.