Opening NFL Divisional Weekend betting lines, odds and spreads in Early Birds with Jared Smith

Divisional Weekend of the NFL is approaching, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith offers his initial insights into the lines and early betting takeaways. All odds are via the Westgate Superbook.

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AFC Divisional Opening Lines

Jaguars at Chiefs (-8.5) | Total: 51.5

It only took until divisional Saturday to get our first playoff game that wasn’t a rematch from the regular season. Jacksonville is coming off a win despite having a minus-5 turnover margin so I doubt the Jags will attract much public love in the market this week, but the smart money hasn’t loved the Chiefs either considering how expensive the Mahomes tax has been. Kansas City is just 10-18 ATS over the last 3 seasons when favored by a touchdown or more, 1-2 in the postseason including last season’s blown lead to the Bengals in the AFC title game. Despite that, I can definitely see this line going up through 9 this week to protect against teasers. There will likely also be heavy moneyline parlay liability tied to the favorite.

Bengals at Bills (-5) | Total: 49.5

What an emotional game this will be, especially if Damar Hamlin is in attendance. I don’t have a strong opinion on where the market might go here as this number is in no man’s land at 5. The Bengals did not look sharp on Sunday night against the Ravens and lost another key piece on the offensive line with LT Jonah Williams leaving with a knee injury. Cincinnati was already without RG Alex Cappa and RT La’el Collins so any further damage to the depth chart will be a major obstacle. Burrow took 4 sacks against Baltimore and will be in for another stiff test this week against Buffalo’s versatile front that also got to Skylar Thompson 4 times. Josh Allen threw 2 picks and fumbled and overall the Bills were a minus-1 in turnover margin, something they can’t afford to do this week against a much more polished Bengals offense. Neither defense looked particularly dominant either, so I can see this total going up towards the key number of 51.

NFC Divisional Opening Lines

Giants at Eagles (-7) | Total: 46.5

Fitting that our only divisional rematch on divisional weekend comes from the toughest division in the NFL this season with 3 teams from the NFC East teams making the final 4? Philly is 2-0 against their I-95 rival this season but just 1-1 against the number. The Giants were able to cover as 17-point underdogs in Week 18 despite resting most of their starters. The Eagles scored a season high 48 points and covered easily as 7.5-point road favorites back in Week 11. Daniel Jones looked completely unphased by the moment in his first playoff start Sunday against the Vikings but he will be making a big step up in class this week against a Philly defense that’s 6th in DVOA this season. The Giants will likely be one of the most popular dogs of divisional weekend and I only see this line moving south of 7. I’m done doubting this Giants team after what I saw last week, which might be the best display from a coach-QB combo both making their playoff debuts in NFL history. If Jones and Brian Daboll can replicate what they did in Minnesota, this game will be there for the taking.

Cowboys/Bucs at 49ers (TBD)

The winner of Monday’s game will be at a significant rest disadvantage for this game, not to mention the 49ers were the only favorite over the weekend who covered and looked impressive doing so. Brock Purdy continued to play well above expectations but it helps when you have the weapons he does and the genius offensive mind of Kyle Shanahan on the sidelines. Check back after the Cowboys-Bucs game for analysis on this opening line and predictions on where the market could move.

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