NFL Week 11 – NFL odds, betting picks, and best betting offers

It was a wild week of NFL football with 11 of the 14 games being decided by one possession.

On Sunday five games were decided by a field goal on the final play which marks the most in NFL history. There also were two game-winning touchdown drives with eight of the games being decided by four points or less.

Monday Night’s matchup between the Bills and Broncos put a final exclamation point on things when it took two tries for them to make their game-winning field goal thanks to the Bills having 12 men on the field. This loss also pushed the Bills to 5-5 on the season and sparked the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

Buffalo currently sits on the outside of the playoff picture, along with the Bengals, Colts, Raiders, Chargers, and Jets as well as the Buccaneers, Falcons, Commanders, Packers, and Bears on the NFC side.

The playoff race is heating up and the home stretch of the season still leaves plenty to be decided. However, the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and New Orleans Saints will each have to wait until next week to resume the race as they will be on their bye.

There is still plenty of action to break down in the 14 games that will take place. Here is a look at the best value in the NFL betting markets as the week rapidly approaches. 

Quick NFL picks for Week 10

• Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals: Texans -5 (-110) at DraftKings
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans: Jaguars -6.5 (-120) at BetMGM
• Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: Jets +7 at -110 odds on BetRivers (-110) at BetRivers

Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals: Texans -5 (-110) at DraftKings

Kyler Murray made his return to the field to provide a necessary spark of life to this Cardinals team last week. In his first game returning from his ACL tear last season, Murray threw for 249 yards and added 33 yards and a touchdown with his legs. Arizona secured the 25-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons to move to 2-8 on the season.

While Murray could help to turn the offense around, there are still some notable concerns on the defensive side of the ball for the Cardinals. On the season they rank 28th in points allowed, 22nd in yards allowed, 31st in first-downs allowed, and 30th in turnover percentage. 

Expect these defensive issues to show face against a Houston Texans offense that has been dynamic all year. CJ Stroud has led the charge and not only looks to be a lock for Rookie of the Year at -1600 odds on DraftKings but also is in the MVP mix with the 8th-best odds at +2500. The Ohio State product has completed 61.6% of his passes for 2626 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Houston has an air raid style of attack and on the season which ranks 10th in scoring, 6th in yards, 2nd in turnovers, 6th in score percentage, and 3rd in net yards per pass attempt.

It is time to stop waiting for Stroud to hit the rookie wall and time to recognize him as one of the premier passers around the league despite his young age. He continues to put forth gutsy performance after gutsy performance and most recently led the Texans on a game-winning drive to defeat Joe Burrow and the Bengals. DeMeco Ryans has looked like the Coach of the Year frontrunner this season and the Texans are playing some really impressive football as a team.

While the Cardinals have more of a pulse than they have had for most of the season, the Texans are the better team and will get the better of them in this matchup. The quarterback tandem of Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder combined for just 70 total passing yards against the Cardinals last week which left the door open for them to get the victory.

Don’t expect this type of measly performance from C.J. Stroud, never mind the more impressive weapons surrounding him compared to what Arizona faced last week. Expect another poised performance from the rookie QB and for Arizona to struggle to get stops defensively which ultimately leads them past the -5 line. You can wager on this at -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bet on Texans -5 at odds -112 with DraftKings

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans: Jaguars -6.5 (-120) at BetMGM

After starting the season as a trendy pick to be a threat to win the AFC, the Jacksonville Jaguars find their back against the wall. They hold a record of 6-3 on the season but the Texans continue to lurk over their shoulder just one game behind for the AFC South race. Most recently, the Jaguars suffered a 34-3 loss at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers in which they turned the ball over four times.

While the 49ers dominant defense clearly caused a great deal of these issues, this was a frustrating result for a team that wants to be considered a legitimate contender. Jacksonville now finds themselves in an excellent bounce-back spot as they will remain home this week to take on a 3-6 Titans team.

Tennessee is in a must-win spot in this game but has some significant holes they must fix on their end. On the season, the Titans rank 28th in scoring, 27th in yards on the offensive end, and are dead last in turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. Will Levis is set to remain as the starting quarterback after taking over for Ryan Tannehill midseason.

Through his three starts thus far he has completed 56.1% of his pass attempts for 699 yards and four touchdowns. Levis has also thrown an interception in each of the last two games. While he has been the engine of the offense in years past, Derrick Henry has struggled this season. His 69.4 yards per game is the lowest since 2018 and his 4.2 yards per carry is tied for the lowest of his career. Henry is also coming off a performance last week in which he took his 11 carries for just 24 yards. 

Each of these teams has some changes to make coming off their recent performances. However, the Jaguars have a much higher ceiling as a team and have played at a higher peak this season. Expect an improved performance from Trevor Lawrence and for Josh Allen and the rest of the Jaguars defense to cause issues for the Titans.

Jacksonville is a playoff-caliber team and will prove that in this matchup. Look for them to get ahead early and for Tennessee to lack the firepower to make the comeback. You can feel confident in them to win by at least a touchdown and take the -6.5 spread at -120 odds on BetMGM. 

Bet on Jaguars -6.5 at -110 with BetMGM

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: Jets +7 at -110 odds on BetRivers (-110) at BetRivers

The alarm bells are ringing in Buffalo. The Bills have slipped to 5-5 on the season and lost back-to-back games leading up to this matchup. The most recent 24-22 loss to the Broncos was especially frustrating considering they would have had another win tallied if they had just had 11 men on the field during the game-winning field-goal attempt. Instead, the execution error and penalty for too many men on the field kept the door open and the Broncos capitalized on a second try.

This was not a game in which their play had earned a victory anyway as the Bills tallied four turnovers and were dominated by about 15 minutes in the time-of-possession battle. Buffalo currently sits outside of the playoff picture with no one to blame but themselves.

While he is also tied for the most passing touchdowns, Josh Allen leads the NFL in interceptions and has fumbled the ball away four times this season. Cleaning up the turnovers is the biggest step to getting the Bills back on track, but his decision-making with the ball has been an area of concern throughout Allen’s career. 

On the other side of things, the New York Jets enter this game with a 4-5 record and with their playoff hopes still on the table. While they have lost their past two games to the Chargers and Raiders, Zach Wilson has shown signs of progression in a way that Jets fans desperately needed to see. With Aaron Rodgers targeting a rapid return from his torn Achilles, the Jets must remain in the hunt in order for this to come together.

New York’s defense has held up their side of the bargain, ranking top 10 in points, yards, turnovers, and net yards per attempt. However, their 16.0 points per game on the offensive side ranks 30th in the league and the Jets also rank dead last in passing touchdowns and 30th in score percentage. 

While most expect the Bills to get it together and find their stride at some point, it will be difficult to do against this Jets defense. Expect the Bills’ turnover issues to show face and for this to allow the Jets to stay in the game.

Both teams should be viewing this matchup optimistically, but the seven-point spread is too large for a team that has struggled as much as the Bills. Be ready for some old-fashioned football where touchdowns are hard to come by and for the game to stay within the seven-point spread. While the Jets will have their chance to get a win, take the points as this feels destined to fall within the seven-point margin. You can wager on this at -110 odds on BetRivers Sportsbook. 

Wager on Jets +7 at -110 with BetRivers

Best online sportsbooks for the NFL

If you are searching for the best NFL betting sites, look no further. Here are the best sportsbooks we can easily recommend to NFL fans in the US.

• bet365 (Available in: CO, OH, IA, VA)
• DraftKings (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV)
• BetMGM (Available in: AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY)
• BetRivers (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY)
• Desert Diamond (Available in: AZ)
• Betway (Available in: IA)

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