NFL NFC South Predictions, Odds & Season Projections 2023: Falcons finally fly high again

In the first 12 years of the NFC South’s existence (2002-13), not a single team ever repeated as champion. After that, the Carolina Panthers won 3 division titles in a row, the New Orleans Saints won 4 straight and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now the 2-time defending champions (the Atlanta Falcons also snuck 1 in there in 2016). With Tom Brady having retired, there does not appear to be a 3-peat in the cards for Tampa Bay. Will it be Atlanta, Carolina, or New Orleans who takes advantage?

With the 2023 NFL campaign on the horizon, it’s time to break down the NFC South.

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Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons managed to compile somewhat respectable 7-10 records in Arthur Smith’s first 2 seasons as head coach despite being saddled with horrible rosters. Well, this franchise finally got out of salary-cap purgatory and Smith has plenty of talent with which to work. Atlanta has drafted skill positions in 3 consecutive first rounds (TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson), so new starting quarterback Desmond Ridder will have no excuse if he doesn’t get the job done. The Falcons also went on a spending spree to address the defensive side of the ball, so they have suddenly become a well-rounded squad. This team will likely be better than expected in 2023.

Carolina Panthers

It’s the continuation of a new era in Atlanta; it’s the absolute beginning of a new one in Carolina. Head coach Matt Rhule is out; Frank Reich is in. The Panthers also finally have their quarterback of the future (and presumably the present, as well) in Bryce Young, for whom they traded up to select with the #1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Although the price for Young was steep, the Panthers still have some decent parts in place around their young signal-caller. They actually played well last season after Rhule got the boot 5 weeks into it (1-4 record) and Christian McCaffrey was traded shortly thereafter. A 6-6 record over the last 12 games gives Carolina some momentum heading into 2023.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints went a mediocre 9-8 in 2021 and then slumped to 7-10 last season. Is there really any reason to think that they will be much better (if at all) with Derek Carr taking over at quarterback? Carr is a solid QB, but in 9 years with the Raiders he never won a single playoff game and took them to the playoffs only once. With aging players around the veteran under center, I just do not see a whole lot of upside on either side of the ball (especially not on offense). Of course, that’s not to say New Orleans can’t be competitive. This team may have won the NFC South last year if not for an epic collapse at Tampa Bay in Week 13 and this division will likely be there for the taking again in 2023.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield has been announced as QB1 in Tampa Bay. That’s right; the Buccaneers are going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarter. Okay, it’s not like Brady was the Brady of old in 2023; still, to say that this is a big downgrade under center would be a massive understatement. Head coach Todd Bowles doesn’t have a whole lot to work with at most other positions, either. According to futures odds, Tampa Bay is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. I’m not sure it will be that bad (in part because the schedule isn’t difficult – including 2 games against every NFC South rival), but even in a lackluster division I can’t see the Bucs contending.

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NFC South projected order of finish

Atlanta Falcons (10-9)

Carolina Panthers (9-8)

New Orleans Saints (8-9)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-11)

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NFC South best bet: Atlanta Falcons to win the division (+215)

The NFC South was the worst division in football last season and there is no reason to think anything will be different this time around. This title is completely up for grabs and I think it will be the Falcons who seize the opportunity. Pitts, London and Robinson (not to mention 1,000-yard rusher Tyler Allgeier) make up a dynamic skill-position group and the arrival of safety Jessie Bates should help turn the defense around. Ridder doesn’t have to be a star; he just has to be solid. If he is, Atlanta will likely triumph in the NFC South for the first time since 2016.

Also check out our in-depth team profiles and best bets for the Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Buccaneers 

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