NFC South Rankings: DL

In an ongoing summer series, Pewter Report looks at and ranks each position group in the NFC South. So far, we’ve chronicled and ranked the NFC South quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and offensive lines. Now, it’s on to the NFC South’s defensive lines.

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tampa Bay Bucs

The Bucs lead off the rankings for the NFC South with a strong combination of youth and experience. Starting on the edge, the Bucs have hedged their bets at the starter position by investing in depth. Shaq Barrett has been a top-20 edge rusher over the past four seasons, but is coming off of an Achilles tear that usually takes two years to recover and return to form from. Barrett’s 234 pressures from 2019-2021 was a top ten mark in all of football. If Barrett can return to his pre-injury form, he is the best edge rusher in the division by a small margin.

Bucs OLBs Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Meanwhile, there has been a vocal contingent of Bucs fans who have openly derided fellow starter Joe Tryon-Shoyinka for his lack of sacks over his first two seasons in Tampa Bay. While that lack of production can be infuriating, the fact remains he is the most consistent #2 edge in the division at creating pressure, which is an edge’s primary responsibility. While Tryon-Shoyinka’s pressure rates have been solid and his run defense improved over the back half of last year, it is reasonable that the Bucs’ top brass wanted to put some contingency plans in place in case one or both of those players fails to step into the role that was envisioned for them in 2023.

Behind those two is Anthony Nelson, a very good run defender who can set the edge and take advantage when opposing offensive tackles make mistakes. Nelson provides a high-floor, low-ceiling depth option for the Bucs to put in on early run downs to help spell Barrett.

Beyond Nelson, the Bucs have invested in youth by drafting YaYa Diaby in the third round and Jose Ramirez in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Diaby brings size, athleticism and burst to the Bucs’ outside linebacker room and should be a strong complement to Barrett and Tryon-Shoyinka. Ramirez is a small-school player who produced incredible results, including 18.5 sacks and 30.5 tackles for loss in his final two years at Eastern Michigan.

On the interior, the Bucs start with 2021 Pro Bowl nose tackle Vita Vea. Vea led the team in sacks in 2022 with 6.5 and has developed a solid pass rush arsenal to complement his massive size and plus athleticism. All of that paired with his run defense makes for one of the best nose tackles in the game. Next to Vea will be a three-man rotation comprising of veteran Greg Gaines and youngsters Logan Hall and Calijah Kancey.

Gaines provides a steady and versatile skill set. He can operate as a 3-technique or sub in as a nose tackle. While 2022 was far from his best year, Gaines came on strong in the back-half of the season and recorded 11 pressures over a six-game span from Week 11 to Week 16. Hall has increased his mass and strength in hopes that he can better handle the physical requirements of being an interior defender at the NFL level. But it is reasonable to question whether he will be able to live up to his 33rd overall pick billing.

Kancey is the real wildcard here. No defensive tackle in college football had better pass rushing tape than Kancey last year. But at 6’0 and 283 pounds the question is can he survive on the inside facing +330-pound guards, not to mention double teams. If he can and land somewhere between his two closest physical comps (Aaron Donald and Ed Oliver), the combination of him and Vea could be the best defensive tackle pairing in football.

The NFC South has some talented defensive line rooms. But the Bucs have the highest ceiling with enough depth to create a reasonable floor. They rank first in the NFC South defensive line rankings.

Atlanta Falcons

Ex-Bucs QB Tom Brady and Falcons DT David Onyemata – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It feels weird to place the Falcons so high on a defensive line list. Their pass rush has been near non-existent over the past several years and has been a true Achilles heel for the defense over the same time period. Despite having one of the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the game in the form of Grady Jarrett there has been little to no help from the edge positions since, John Abraham?

The funny thing is, the Falcons edge rushers are still underwhelming this year. Arnold Ebiketie flashed in his rookie season, sporting 28 pressures and a 9.2% pressure rate. It is fair to say that he will continue to ascend and perhaps could turn into a legitimate #1. But the chances of him achieving that in 2023 are probably low. Free agent acquisition Bud Dupree has always been more name than production. Dupree has a career pressure rate below 10% and hasn’t graded out above a 70.0 per Pro Football Focus since 2019.

Given the relatively modest deal Dupree signed, incumbent Lorenzo Carter could beat him out for the starting position opposite Ebiketie. The former Giant is a jack of all trades but master of none, providing average to middling pass rush and run defense while being one of the better coverage outside backers in the league. The Falcons drafted Ohio State edge rusher Zach Harrison in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He could end up pushing some of the veterans for snaps this year, and this analyst was relatively high on Harrison in my draft eval.

With such a lackluster edge group, you probably have guessed that the Falcons rank second in the NFC South for defensive lines due to their interior. Jarrett is still a fantastic player, having tied for 7th in pressures among defensive tackles last year. Next to him, the Falcons added two talented players in David Onyemata and Calais Campbell.

From 2017 to 2021, Onyemata was one of the best interior defenders in the NFL, routinely putting up PFF grades over 80.0 while averaging 32 pressures per year. He fell off last year. While his pass rush abilities were close to those previous seasons, his run defense fell off considerably. As for Campbell, you have to go all the way back to 2010 to find a season where his play garnered less than a 70 PFF grade.

His elite play days are behind him, but Campbell is still a highly effective rotational run defender and pass defender. These three make up not only the best interior triad in the NFC South, but one of the best in the NFL. Eddie Goldman is IDL4 for the Falcons. He didn’t play in 2022 and struggled in 2021, but had a solid run from 2015 to 2019 as a nose tackle in Chicago.

The Falcons are trying to elevate their pass rush in a single fell swoop with several free agent signings. Not everyone will hit and that edge room still looks suspect, but that interior group could be special. And assuming incremental improvements from Ebiketie gives them a solid outlook for 2023 and the second-ranked defensive line in the NFC South.

New Orleans Saints

Saints DE Cameron Jordan and ex-Bucs RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints have had a talented defensive line over the past 10 years. It has been in part due to the Hall of Fame career of defensive end Cameron Jordan. Jordan is not the player of his prime. His play has slowly declined over the past four years as his pressure rate has fallen from 14% in 2019 to 7.9% last year. Jordan is still a great run defender and still represents a quality lineman at age 34.

Opposite Jordan is a three-man rotation that, in sum, should provide effective production. The leader of that rotation is most likely Carl Granderson. The former undrafted free agent had carved out a solid career as a rotational edge rusher from 2019 to 2021, producing just over 50 pressures and nine sacks in just over 500 pass rush snaps during that time period.

Granderson broke out a bit in 2022 with an 80.4 PFF grade, 22 pressures and 5.5 sacks in a slightly larger role. Paired with Granderson is 2021 first-round pick Payton Turner. Turner has played well in limited action but has been plagued by injuries so far in his short career. He has an 11% pressure rate for his career but has only played in 13 games over the past two years. Still, the potential is there with Turner.

Rounding out the edge depth for the Saints is 2023 second-round pick Isaiah Foskey. Foskey is an amazing athlete, running a 4.58 40-yard dash at 264 pounds and has the size and length that the Saints covet. But he is very much a project, registering just a 10.6% pressure rate his final year at Notre Dame. Still, you can’t (and most teams don’t) do much better than him as edge4.

With such a deep edge room, it may be surprising to some that the Saints rank third in the NFC South for defensive line rankings. The reason for that is there are legitimate concerns about how good the interior of their line will be. Gone are last year’s starters Onyemata, Sheldon Rankins and Malcolm Brown. In their place are first-round pick Bryan Bresee and former Kansas City rotational lineman Khalen Saunders.

Saunders is more of a run defender and offers little as a pass rusher. Bresee has athletic upside and has some flashes of fantastic tape, but for a position that notoriously takes at least two years for players to arrive, I am hard-pressed to believe Bresee can provide the interior rush needed to compliment the edge rushers.

The Saints are trying to remake their defensive line and transform it from an aging group. I like the plan they have implemented, but with such a hard reset on the interior, there is legitimate reason to believe they might struggle in 2023. This is why I have them ranked third in the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers

Panthers DE Brian Burns – Photo by: Getty Images

The Panthers feature two of the best defensive linemen in the NFC South. Defensive end Brian Burns is a year away from most likely signing a $100 million-plus contract. And defensive tackle Derrick Brown produced a top-10 season at his position with a top-5 run defense grade last year. These two are a formidable foundation for a great defensive line. Unfortunately, while there is considerable talent spread throughout the Panthers defense, there is not much more on the defensive front.

Yetur Gross-Matos is the default starter at the other defensive end position. But the former second-round pick has failed to earn that spot with lackluster play in run defense and inconsistent pass rush play. It’s possible the Panthers turn to veteran Marquis Haynes over Gross-Matos, but that transition would be like replacing six in one hand with a half-dozen in the other. Alternatively, the team could slot in 2023 third-round pick DJ Johnson. Johnson was a surprise pick as most consensus draft boards had him ranked much lower than 81st, where he was drafted.

The Panthers’ interior is in slightly better shape. Shy Tuttle projects to start next to Brown. Tuttle has graded out well over his first four years in the league. He now moves into a larger role as he was just a rotational player in New Orleans. Tuttle is much more of a run defender than any kind of pass rush threat, but he serves as a good compliment to Brown. Behind those two is Deshawn Williams whose play has trended downward over the past few years and Bravvion Roy who is a an average-at-best DT4.

Despite some real star talent at the top, the Panthers suffer from an extreme lack of depth along their defensive line. That leaves them fourth in the NFC South defensive line rankings.

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