NBA Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat same game parlay picks: Low scoring affair in Miami at +969 odds

The number 7 seed is on the line in South Beach on Tuesday night as the Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks in the first play-in game this season. Tip-off is live from 7.30 pm on NBA TNT, I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.

Head over to our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for the rest of play-in games happening this week!

Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.

Under 219.5 Alt Total Points (+174)

Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 Made Threes (-125)

Trae Young Over 8.5 Assists (-142)

Parlay odds: +969

Under 219.5 Alt Total Points (+174)

It was a wild final day of the regular season with tons of points scored across the board, but now with the play-in tournament coming up the stakes are going up significantly and because of that I’m expecting the tempo of games to slow down drastically. We all know what Miami’s strategy will be here, Trae Young averages only 40% from the field in 17 career games against them and that’s for a reason. They’re one of the toughest defenses to score against in the NBA and for a team like Atlanta that attempts the 3rd fewest amount of threes per game this season that could be an issue. The under has cashed in 8 of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, while an average of 217.8 points per game has been scored during that stretch. I’ll be going for the under in this one.

Check out our Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat predictions

Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 Made Threes (-125)

Ever since arriving to Miami, Butler has taken these match-ups with the Hawks very personal. And we all know what type of player Jimmy is. When the stakes are high that’s when he flourishes the most and it doesn’t get any bigger than tonight’s battle for the 7th seed against the Hawks. He’s had 3 really solid performances against them during the regular season averaging 25 points per game, while also making at least 1 three in 2 of them on just 2 attempts. He doesn’t shoot the three-ball often as it’s not a specialty of his, but when he’s locked in he’s capable of knocking down multiple shots if that’s what his team needs. Atlanta has slipped quite a lot in their perimeter defense lately allowing 40.4% of shots made in their last 3 outings, that should make life easier for the likes of Herro and Butler in this game to knock down a few shots.

Our Tuesday NBA Mega Parlay has +957 odds!

Trae Young Over 8.5 Assists (-142)

More often than not, Young has struggled shooting the ball against the Miami Heat, especially in more recent meetings. He’s faced them 17 times in his career, shooting over 50% in head-to-head meetings just 3 times. Thankfully his assists numbers have been very consistent lately. He closed out the regular season averaging 10.5 assists per game in his last 10 outings, and going double-digits in 5 of his last 6 games, including a 20 assist night on the final day of the season against Philadelphia. For his career he’s dishing 8.3 dimes per game in those 17 outings vs Miami, which is very close to the number we need him to pass tonight. As usual, Jimmy Butler will take this assignment personal and probably do his best to try and hold Young under 20 points here. But, with teammates like Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter he will have plenty of options to pass the ball to here.

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