MLS Cup Outright Winner Odds: Has Lionel Messi turned Inter Miami into a title contender?

News of Lionel Messi joining Major League Soccer’s Inter Miami CF sent the soccer world into a frenzy. The American team had suddenly agreed terms with the world’s most famous soccer player. 

Now, with the dust settling on news of Messi’s impending arrival, bookmakers are reconsidering whether Inter Miami can win the MLS Cup trophy this season.

Miami is the second-worst team in MLS after 17 matches. The team took just 15 points from those games and the front office fired coach Phil Neville days before the Messi announcement.

With the league split into two conferences, Inter Miami can still qualify for the MLS Playoffs. Miami is just seven points off the final playoff place in the Eastern Conference despite being last overall in the 15-team conference. MLS’s structure ensures that nearly every team is still in the playoff hunt going into the final month of the season.

Can Lionel Messi turn the Herons around, lead Inter Miami into the MLS Playoffs, and onto winning the MLS Cup trophy? For fans of MLS teams, it seems like a long shot, but bookmakers aren’t so pessimistic.

MLS Cup outright winner odds

The latest odds have Miami as the ninth-favorite to win the MLS Cup at odds of +2000. Los Angeles FC, last season’s MLS Cup winners, is the favorite at odds of +400 to reclaim the cup.

Here are the latest odds courtesy of Bet365, as of June 21, 2023:

How do the MLS regular season and playoffs work?

Messi’s impending arrival in MLS has increased the eyeballs on the league already. It has also led to questions over the structure of MLS’s regular season and its playoffs. MLS is very different to the rest of the soccer world.

The league is currently made up of 29 teams after St Louis City joined the competition as an expansion team before the current season. There are 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and 14 teams in the Western Conference.

Teams play 34 regular season games. The schedule is unbalanced, meaning teams will play each other an uneven number of times.

At the end of the regular season, nine clubs from each conference qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs. Seeds No 1 through No 7 qualify for the playoffs proper, but seeds No 8 and No 9 play a play-in match.

The team with the best overall points total in the MLS Cup final will host the game in its home stadium. The MLS Cup playoffs resemble a traditional knock-out cup tournament in Europe like the FA Cup or Champions League.

Can Inter Miami CF really win the MLS Cup 2023?

This is a difficult question to answer. Theoretically, the club can certainly win the MLS Cup, but Miami must qualify for the playoffs first. Messi is expected to play his first match for the Herons in late July.

He is coming off a season in France with Paris Saint-Germain. He should be well-rested for his debut but may need a week or two to get up to speed. Messi has shown annoyance with past clubs for signing players he didn’t feel were up to his level. It could be a rude awakening for Messi in MLS, where the calibre of player is lower than anything he has enjoyed before.

If Miami can reach the playoffs, they have a great chance of winning the MLS Cup. However, MLS is very physical and athletic. While it may be low on soccer quality, it is full of players who work hard.

It should be remembered that when David Beckham signed for LA Galaxy in 2007, it took a few years for the team to finally win the MLS Cup.

Past  MLS Cup winners

In 2022, Los Angeles FC won the MLS Cup thanks to Gareth Bale’s heroics. Here is a look at the last 10 MLS Cup winners:

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