MLB Wednesday parlay at mega (+818) odds today 6/14: Red Sox attack Austin Gomber

We’re halfway through the work week and have a full slate of games today to celebrate. I’ve identified 3 edges in today’s slate that make up this mega parlay, but also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup. For now, let’s get into Wednesday’s MLB mega parlay.

Braves-Tigers alternate under 7.5 (+132)

Red Sox -1.5 (-120)

Phillies–Diamondbacks alternate under 7.5 (+116)

Parlay odds: +818

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Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers under 7.5 (+132)

The depth of the Braves is absolutely unreal. They’re one of the best teams in baseball even though their ace Max Fried is sidelined with an injury and Michael Soroka is still returning from several Achilles tears. That has opened the opportunity for the 20-year-old prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, who started the season in High-A and has made it to the big leagues by the beginning of June. It’s been quite the leap for Smith-Shawver, but the changes have not affected his performances because he’s allowed just 4 runs and 8 hits along with 13 strikeouts in 12 innings. His four-seam fastball has excellent life to it and his slider is very tight, so he’s similar to his teammate Spencer Strider in the fact that he relies on those 2 pitches for the majority of pitches. If he can keep progressing, the Braves might have found their next Strider. 

The Tigers took a shot on Michael Lorenzen in the offseason, and that gamble has paid off in a big way. After 10 starts, Lorenzen has a 3.75 ERA paired with a 3.82 xERA, and most notably, his control is much better. He’s no longer trying to paint the corners and strike every hitter out. Instead, he’s pitching to get weak contract and not walk as many hitters. That strategy has worked out well for Lorenzen, who has a .241 xBA and has limited hitters to a 5.5% walk rate. His improved control has led to him being able to go longer in the game as he’s completed at least 6 innings in 6 of his last 7 starts. The bottom line is that Lorenzen has improved significantly since last season, and although he may not be able to throw a scoreless outing against the Braves, he should be able to limit them to just a handful of runs in the first 6 innings. I think the pitching matchup is better than the oddsmakers expect, so with this high total, I’ll take an alternate under at excellent odds.

Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) over Colorado Rockies

The Rockies starting rotation has been decimated by injuries and cuts (shoutout Jose Urena), but one guy that has remained healthy the entire time has been Austin Gomber. Unfortunately for Colorado, he’s turning into Jose Urena 2.0 because he’s been throwing batting practice in his last few outings. His ERA is up to 7.57, his xERA sits at 7.60 and his FIP is an absurd 6.75 – all of that means his struggles are no fluke. To list a few of the things that Gomber has struggled in: 1st percentile in xBA (.323), 2nd percentile in xSLG (.582), 6th percentile in strikeout rate (14%) and 25th percentile in barrel rate (9.9%). It’s not like the lefty had a rough start to the season and has bounced back either because, in June, he’s allowed 9 runs, 17 hits, 5 walks and 4 home runs in 6.2 innings. Those 2 starts were against the Royals and Padres, who rank 15th and 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, but as for the Red Sox, they rank 7th with a 124 wRC+. 

Regardless of who the Red Sox were going to start, they had the pitching advantage on Wednesday. Fortunately for them, they have Garrett Whitlock starting, which makes their advantage even greater. The right-hander made 3 starts at the beginning of the season and didn’t look as sharp as Sox fans were accustomed to seeing, and he was placed on the injured list shortly after. Whitlock missed a month of action, but now he’s back and better than ever. In 3 outings since returning, the 27-year-old has allowed 6 runs and 16 hits while racking up 15 strikeouts in 16 innings. Although his sinker can run him into trouble sometimes, Whitlock still has the arsenal to keep the Rockies’ lineup off balanced. Because Gomber is on the mound for the Rockies, there’s no other choice in this game besides the Red Sox run line.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks under 7.5 (+116)

I’ve been a huge fan of the Diamondbacks this season, not just because I took the over on their win total, but also because they’ve been a fun team to watch. Corbin Carroll has been a blast to watch on offense, but their starting pitching has been extremely underrated. Obviously, everyone knows Zac Gallen is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but Merrill Kelly has burst onto the scene this year with career-best numbers. After 13 starts, the right-hander has a 2.92 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and has the highest strikeout rate of his 5-year career. He’s been as consistent as they come since he’s allowed more than 3 runs just once in his last 8 starts, and that has resulted in a lot of low-scoring affairs. In fact, nine of Kelly’s 12 starts have gone under the total this season.

Ranger Saurez had a rocky return to the Phillies starting rotation, but he’s settled in nicely recently. After allowing 12 runs in his first 11 innings, Suarez has flipped the switch and has given up just 4 runs in his last 19 innings. His recent starts weren’t against the A’s or Tigers either, they came against the Dodgers, Nationals and Mets who all possess dangerous orders. The biggest change from his first 3 starts to his latest 3 starts has been keeping the ball on the ground. Suarez is at his best when he uses his sinker and curveball to get ground balls which is something he strayed away from when he came back, but his ground-ball rate is back up to 51.6% which is substantially higher than the 44.8% MLB average. 

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