MLB Thursday parlay at mega +688 odds today 6/29: Runs expected in St. Louis

With a full slate of Major League Baseball games taking place on Thursday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +688 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Thursday.

Astros vs Cardinals Over 9.5 (-104)

Padres -1.5 (-114)

Mets -1.5 (+112)

MLB parlay odds: +688

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Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Over 9.5 (-102)

To start off our mega parlay, I’m going with the over in this matchup between the Astros and Cardinals. Houston has struggled with consistency in the 2023 campaign, but a large part of that is due to their pitching rotation. J.P. France will get the ball for the Astros and the 28-year-old rookie has been fairly solid on paper this season, posting a 3.54 ERA on the year while allowing 9 runs in his last 4 outings. However, his xERA of 4.38 and below-average advanced metrics across the board suggest that regression is coming.

On the other side, the Cardinals are having a season to forget thus far, and that’s revealed itself in their starting pitching as well. Veteran right-hander Adam Wainright is currently sporting the highest ERA as a starter in his illustrious career at 6.56, and that is paired with a 6.82 xERA, so his awful 2023 campaign is no fluke. Wainright just surrendered 7 runs in his last outing, and I don’t see him turning around his season anytime soon. I’m expecting runs to be scored early and often in St. Louis on Thursday.

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San Diego Padres -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (-114)

For the second leg of this parlay, I’m backing the Padres on the run line. Luis Ortiz has been a pitcher worth fading in most scenarios this season, but Thursday seems like a perfect storm. The right-hander’s advanced metrics are terrible across the board, as he sits inside the bottom 9 percentile of all qualified starters in xSLG, xERA, xwOBA and strikeout percentage. He’s not missing many bats either, ranking in the 5th percentile of all starting pitchers in xBA at .292 through 9 starts in 2023. I’m expecting more struggles for Ortiz against a Padres team that will be desperately looking to avoid the sweep. On the other side, Joe Musgrove’s 3.11 xERA and excellent hard-hit percentage, chase rate and average exit velocity metrics bode well for San Diego in what should be a routine victory. 

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New York Mets -1.5 over Milwaukee Brewers (+112)

To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the Mets on the run line. New York has been in a rut all season long, but Thursday presents a chance for the Mets to get back on track with their ace on the mound. Despite a couple of glaringly bad starts in 2023, Max Scherzer has largely pitched like his usual self since returning from his suspension earlier this season. The veteran right-hander has allowed just 3 runs in his last 14 IP and his xERA of 3.45 suggests that positive regression is still in store for Scherzer. And while Scherzer should be able to stymie a middling Brewers lineup, Adrian Houser should struggle against the Mets on the road. Let’s back the Mets to win by at least 2 runs on Thursday.

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