MLB Sunday parlay at mega (+850 odds) today 4/16: Pitching mismatch in DC

The Major League Baseball season has started with a bang as the new rules have created more excitement and made the game much quicker. With a full slate taking place on Sunday, I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +850 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for today.

Guardians first 5 innings -0.5 (-175)

White Sox -1.5 (+150)

Twins ML (+140)

MLB parlay odds: +850

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Cleveland Guardians first 5 innings -0.5 (-175) over Washington Nationals

To start our mega parlay, we’re going to be backing the Guardians on the run line in the first 5 innings. Simply put, this is a complete mismatch from a starting pitching perspective. On one hand, Shane Bieber is pitching like an ace once again this season, posting an ERA of 2.37 despite a poor max exit velocity metric. He’ll be opposed by Patrick Corbin, who continues to be one of the best starting pitchers to fade across baseball. Through 3 starts, Corbin holds an ERA of 7.71 with an xERA of 8.85, to go along with sitting in the bottom 10 percentile of all qualified pitchers in xBA, xSLG and hard hit rate. When Corbin is on the mound, I routinely look to bet the opposition in the first 5 innings, and that won’t change here.

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Chicago White Sox 1-5 (+150) over Baltimore Orioles

For the second leg of our mega parlay, we’re going with the White Sox on the run line. The comforts of pitching at home have been a huge advantage for Dylan Cease in his career to this point. One of the best pitchers in baseball, Cease limited opponents to just a .185 batting average with a .262 on-base percentage in 18 starts at home in 2022. One of those starts happened to be against the Orioles, in which Cease allowed just 1 run on 4 hits with 13 strikeouts in 7 innings. Grayson Rodriguez has great stuff, but his career has gotten off to a rough start after being knocked around by a couple of subpar offenses. Therefore, I’ve got concerns about when he has to face a tougher lineup, which the White Sox will present on Sunday. I’m expecting Chicago to give Cease the run support that he needs in this one. 

Minnesota Twins ML (+140) over New York Yankees

For the final leg in our mega parlay, we’re going with the Twins on the money line. Minnesota has typically been a team that flounders against the Yankees, but this series has been a different story thus far. The Twins jumped all over New York in the opener on Thursday and followed that up with a comeback win on Friday to take control of the series and win their fourth straight game. The Yankees bounced back with a solid effort on Saturday, but I think we’re getting value with Pablo Lopez on the mound for the Twins on Sunday. Lopez’ ERA of 1.35 and xERA of 1.92 speaks to his quality over his first couple of starts. On the other side, while Gerrit Cole is pitching extremely well of late, I’m not sold that there will be a Yankee run support for their ace. In that case, I’ll back the underdog Twins to steal a series-clinching victory in the Bronx.

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