MLB Sunday parlay at mega (+1437) odds today 7/16: Diamondbacks have value

We’re nearly done with another week of baseball, but first, we have a massive Sunday slate that features some excellent pitching matchups. I’ve crafted a 3-team mega parlay that pays out at +1437 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so let’s get right into it.

Diamondbacks ML (+138)

Cubs -1.5 (+134)

Tigers ML (+176)

Parlay odds: +1437

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Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+138) over Toronto Blue Jays

Tommy Henry is slowly developing into the pitcher the Diamondbacks have dreamed of. After a mediocre first month and a half, Henry went into the break allowing 2 runs or less in 4 straight starts. In fact, he allowed only 4 runs during the entirety of the 4 starts. His control has been better, his walks have been down and he’s been limiting extra-base hits – all things that are important to being a good pitcher. I don’t know if he’s been taking advice from Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly in the last month, but whatever he’s been doing, it’s been working. 

The makeup of the Blue Jays is simple. Their offense is exceptional with plenty of contact hitters like Bo Bichette and power hitters like Vladdy, but what separates them from other teams is the production they get from the bottom of the order. However, Toronto’s problem is their pitching staff. Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt make up an excellent 1-2 punch, but after that, there is a lot of inconsistency. That’s a synonym for Yusei Kikuchi, who has a respectable 4.24 ERA, but also a 10.8% barrel rate and a 44% hard-hit rate. His advanced metrics tell the story quite easily – when Kikuchi gets hit, he gets hit hard. It’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting at plus odds from the Snakes, so that’s my pick for the series finale. 

Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+134) over Boston Red Sox

The rubber match of the 3-game series will take place on Sunday afternoon in the North Side of Chicago. On the mound will be Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox and Justin Steele for the Cubs, which is lining up to be an excellent pitching matchup. Crawford was moved into Boston’s starting rotation at the beginning of June and has been a decent arm in replace of Chris Sale and Garrett Whitlock. However, his numbers are certainly not that impressive. As a starter, Crawford has a 5.45 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in 9 starts. It’s not that Crawford gives up a lot of hard contact or gets barreled a lot, he just leaves a lot of fastballs over the plate which become very hittable. 

Justin Steele is one of the most underappreciated and undervalued pitchers in the game. In 16 starts in the first half of the season, Steele accumulated a 2.56 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. He allowed more than 3 runs in only 2 of his 16 starts which is absolutely insane to think about. In 9 of his 16 starts, Steele has surrendered 1 run or less. But perhaps the most dangerous part of Steele in this matchup is that he has not thrown more than 1 inning in more than 10 days. His last start of the first half of the season was on July 5 against the Brewers, and then he appeared in 1 inning during the All-Star Game. That means Steele is very well-rested and ready to give 100 pitches if needed. Chicago has a huge pitching advantage, so I’m expecting the Cubs to win the series on Sunday.

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Detroit Tigers ML (+176) over Seattle Mariners

Okay here me out – the Tigers are actually pretty good. They went into the break just 5.5 games out of first place in the AL Central and have their sights set on a second-half surge for the division title. On Sunday afternoon in the Pacific Northwest, we will have a rookie on rookie matchup as Reese Olson will counter Bryce Miller. Miller burst into the spotlight when he first came up as he threw 3 shutouts in his first 5 outings, but he’s come back to reality in the last month or so. His strikeout numbers are still excellent and his fastball is still reaching high-90s, but homers and extra-base hits have been a problem for the young right-hander.

Olson is Detroit’s #11 overall prospect and has made quite the impact in his first season. Although his 4.05 ERA isn’t overly impressive, he has a 3.46 FIP and a 3.65 xERA which means he’s been getting slightly unlucky through 33.1 innings. He’s limited hitters to just a .220 xBA while managing a 26.1% strikeout rate, and he went into the break allowing just 2 hits and 1 run in his last 7 innings. The right-hander has a lot of potential with his slider and fastball combination, and I think that can help him get through the inconsistent Mariners offense. At this good of odds, the TIgers are worth the risk.

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