MLB Saturday parlay at mega (+875) odds today 7/22: Dependable Dane Dunning strikes again

We’ve made it to the weekend in Major League Baseball! It’s a packed day with action starting at 1:05 in the Bronx and concluding with a 9:07 first pitch in Los Angeles. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Saturday.

Rangers ML (+116)

Rays -1.5 (+115)

Giants-Nationals Alternate Total Under 8 (+110)

Parlay odds: +875

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Texas Rangers ML (+116) over Los Angeles Dodgers

For the second game of the series, the Rangers will start Dane Dunning, or as I like to call him, dependable Dane Dunning. The right-hander might be this year’s version of Michael Wacha, who was the luckiest pitcher in baseball last season. In 99 innings, Dunning has a 2.82 ERA but a 4.71 xERA which is a massive difference and indicates that his sub-3 ERA is misleading. Don’t get me wrong – I completely agree that Dunning has been incredibly lucky. However, I’m inclined to keep backing Dunning as I have for most of the season. Since being moved into the starting rotation at the beginning of April, Dunning has a 3.09 ERA, 1.182 WHIP and a .249 batting average allowed. Admittedly, his xBA is far higher than his batting average allowed, but it’s been nearly 3 months, and Dunning has yet to see any negative regression.

Bobby Miller looked like the next best thing for the Dodgers in his first few weeks in the show, but reality has come for him fast. Miller allowed 12 hits and just 2 runs in his first 4 starts and was looking like Spencer Strider 2.0. However, Miller has surrendered 30 hits and 21 runs in his last 5 outings. In that time, Miller has allowed a .288 batting average and a 41% hard-hit rate. It appears that teams are starting to realize Miller relies on a fastball to a fault, and that has caused his hard-hit and barrel rate to skyrocket. Texas has a lineup that has mashed fastballs all season long, and I’m expecting that to continue on Saturday afternoon in Arlington. 

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+115) over Baltimore Orioles

Grayson Rodriguez is back in the Majors and still getting hit as hard as ever. Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in his first 10 starts in Baltimore which earned him a one-way ticket back to Triple-A. Baltimore’s prized prospect seemed to figure it out as he went 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA in 8 starts in the Minors. He was brought back to Baltimore, but he left his improvement in the Minors. Rodriguez was shelled by the Dodgers in his first start back as he allowed 4 runs, 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings. I’m concerned that Rodriguez’s confidence has taken another hit and will only get worse.

The Rays are no longer the powerhouse of the MLB. After a hot start, Tampa Bay has fallen into some hard times and even surrendered their lead in the AL East. However, one guy that has stayed consistent for the entire season has been Shane McClanahan. After 18 starts, McClanahan has a 2.56 ERA paired with a 1.13 WHIP. The lefty has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 9 starts and has been one of the best pitchers in the American League for the last several months. With his disappearing changeup and ability to generate weak contact, I’m backing the Rays for a big win.

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San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Under 8 (+110)

Saturday afternoon in the Nation’s Capital features an excellent pitching matchup between Logan Webb and Josiah Gray. Webb has taken a huge step forward this season with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP as he’s become an elite arm in the National League. There is a lot to like about Webb, like his ground-ball rate, strikeout rate and more, but what I love about him is his efficiency. He’s completed 7 innings or more in 11 of his last 16 starts, which is something you don’t see too much in today’s game. Having a pitcher that you can rely on to go deep into the contest is a game-changer, and if Webb can go 6-7 innings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nats finish with 3 runs or less.

Josiah Gray has so much potential, and I thought we would see a bigger step forward this season. However, Gray comes into this matchup with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP and walks continue to be a huge problem. He has a walk rate above 10% for the 3rd consecutive season and that tends to drive up his pitch count. The key to Gray having a good outing is to limit the walks and keep his slider away from the middle of the plate. Gray is unlike many pitchers in baseball since his primary pitch isn’t a fastball, and that can be incredibly useful when he doesn’t let it stay over the zone. I’m taking a shot on both pitchers and backing the under. 

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