MLB picks Wednesday 7/26: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: A 6-0 spot from Spencer Strider

If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.

There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Wednesday.

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Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-124)

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The next-best pitching matchup of the day takes place in Minnesota as a pair of rising stars duel it out. On the mound for Seattle is Bryce Miller, a 24-year-old who has made 13 starts this season. He’s accumulated a 3.50 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP during his 69.1 innings, and more importantly for this wager, he’s thrown a scoreless opening inning in 11 of his starts. Miller has limited hitters to a .204 batting average and a .235 on-base percentage during the first inning this season. Perhaps the most impressive part of his first inning success is his 40.8% strikeout rate which is drastically higher than his season punchout rate of 23.5%. He will face a Twins offense that has started the second half on a roll, but one thing they’ve continued to struggle against has been fastballs. Unfortunately for them, Miller relies on his four-seam fastball for 67.9% of pitches.

If you’re looking for a pitcher with perfect fundamentals and exceptional hair, look no further than Joe Ryan. The Minnesota ace has been exceptional this season with a 2.92 xERA and a .212 xBA, but he’s become slightly more hittable in the last few weeks which has caused him to have a 5.82 ERA in July. Fortunately for us, the damage that has been done against Joe Ryan has come later in games. The right-hander has held hitters to a .241 average and a .241 on-base percentage in the first inning, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ryan sit down Seattle’s top of the order… in order. Between a pair of rising stars, I’m taking the NRFI in Minnesota.

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Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox: NRFI (-102)

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

By far the best matchup of the day takes place in Boston, Massachusetts. Spencer Strider will toe the rubber for the Braves for his 21st start of the season and he will be opposed by Brayan Bello, a rising star in the Red Sox organization. There’s 2 main things you should know about this matchup – firstly, Strider is not only a top 3 pitcher in baseball, but he’s also a top 3 pitcher in the first inning. Although Strider has an ERA near 4, his xERA sits at 3.03 and his xBA is just .202. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in nearly every pitching category and continues to rack up the strikeouts in every start. But back to the first inning, Strider has thrown a scoreless opening frame in 10 of his last 11 starts. And not just that, but the NRFI is 6-0 in his last 6 outings. It’s not hard to see why – Strider has limited hitters to a .189 batting average and .524 OPS in the first frame. 

The second thing you should know about this matchup is this is Brayan Bello’s first start since becoming a father. Bello was placed on the paternity list last week and flew to the Dominican Republic for the birth of his first kid. The trip back home allowed Bello to have an extra day of rest too which means this start will be on 6 days of rest. New-dad power is absolutely a real thing in my opinion, and I’m hoping the extra rest should allow Bello to start even fresher. Bello has thrown a scoreless opening frame in 9 of his last 11 starts, and although the Braves offense has an elite top of the order, I like Bello’s chances on extra rest. 

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