MLB picks Tuesday 9/12: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: The NRFI is 4-0 in Joe Ryan’s last 4 outings

If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.

There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Tuesday.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles: YRFI (-136)

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Two words: Adam Wainwright. At this point, you just have to feel bad for the longtime Cardinal. He’s had a fantastic career in St. Louis and now is having to go through one of the worst seasons ever to close it out. In 19 starts, he owns an 8.19 ERA with an 8.09 xERA. I bet he wishes he retired with Yadier Molina right about now. Wainwright is completely outmatched by the hitters this year and continues to get mashed every time he goes to the mound – especially in the first inning. Wainwright owns a 9.00 ERA this season and has allowed hitters to slash a .391 average, .632 slugging percentage and a 1.070 OPS. In just his last 6 starts, the 42-year-old has allowed 10 runs in the first inning. It won’t get any easier for him since he has to face the young and surging Orioles lineup on Tuesday.

After 16 months away from the mound, John Means is finally returning to Baltimore. Means was the ace of the Orioles staff in 2021 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 26 starts, so although the team wasn’t good, the lefty gave the fans something to look forward to in the future. But Means made just 2 starts in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he’s been out ever since. And his return comes at a perfect time since the Orioles need reliable starting pitching more than ever, and while I do think Means will provide that, we have to remember this is his first start back. Means made 6 rehab starts and looked decent, but the Cardinals lineup is no joke with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the top 4. Whether it’s the Orioles or Cardinals, I see a run being scored in the opening frame.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-125)

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Baseball is better when Joe Ryan is pitching. The rising star missed most of August with a groin strain but rejoined the rotation two weeks ago and is looking better than ever. In his 3 starts back, Ryan has allowed 4 runs and 12 hits while striking out 9 in 15 innings. More importantly for this bet, he didn’t allow a run in the first frame in any of those starts. In fact, the NRFI is 4-0 in Ryan’s last 4 starts, dating back to the outing before he got hurt. He’s been excellent at using his fastball to get ahead of the count before using his split-finger and sweeper to put away hitters, and I think he can continue that in the first inning on Tuesday night.

Zack Littell made just 2 appearances with the Red Sox before being DFA’d, and I bet they’re regretting that decision right about now. Littell was picked up by the Rays and started in the bullpen but has since been moved to the starting rotation and has been the perfect inning-eater for Tampa Bay. The Rays have already lost Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to injuries, so they’ve been in desperate need of pitchers who can give 5 or so innings to bridge the gap to their bullpen. Littell has done just that while also being an exceptional NRFI pitcher. He’s allowed a first inning run in just 1 of his last 8 starts, so I like the chances of the trend continuing and the opening frame going by without a run.

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