MLB picks Monday 10/9: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Bobby Miller sets the tone

The MLB Divisional Series continued on Sunday with a couple of fascinating matchups, with both underdogs pulling off small upsets in the American League. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action this postseason, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. Even at this point in the season, there is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.

I’m currently on a 38-21 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for each of today’s postseason matchups.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

Seeing as we have only a 2-game slate in store on Monday, I have only one pick in the YRFI/NRFI market for Monday’s Divisional Series games. And for this pick, I’ll be going with the NRFI in this NL West matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers. We cashed the YRFI in Game 1, but I think the bats quiet down a bit in this one, particularly on the Arizona side.

The Diamondbacks ambushed Clayton Kershaw, who had been battling a shoulder injury for weeks and clearly shouldn’t have been starting in that game. Going by fastball velocity and stuff+, Kershaw’s stuff has been incredibly diminished post All-Star break compared to his first-half numbers, and that reared its ugly head on Saturday. That won’t be an issue with Bobby Miller, who is making his first playoff start at Dodger Stadium on Monday. The young phenom profiles as a future ace and he might even be growing into that role with each outing, posting an opponent xBA of .230 to go along with a 3.45 xERA, plus a fastball that is in the top 2% of all pitchers in MPH. Going from a diminished Kershaw to a live arm like Miller (who Arizona hasn’t faced much) will certainly be a change of pace, and I like the Dodgers starter to get off to a hot start.

On the other side, Zac Gallen gives us almost as good of a chance of getting to the window with this NRFI as well. The Diamondbacks ace did trail off a bit following the All-Star break and his numbers do show that regression is looming. However, given that he’s been able to outperform his expected metrics throughout the season, I’ll still ride with Gallen to have a solid outing on Monday. It’ll start in the first inning against a murderers’ row of Dodger hitters, but Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy don’t have great career numbers against Gallen, so I don’t expect much in the opening frame. Ultimately, I think both teams put up some runs, but not in the early going.

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