MLB Monday parlay at mega (+1374) odds today 9/4: Grayson Rodriguez shines in L.A.

College football returned this past weekend and the NFL season starts on Thursday night, but don’t forget about the MLB! We have less than a month until the postseason and have an exciting slate of 11-games on Monday night. Here is my 3-team MLB mega parlay at over 13/1 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook, and make sure to also check out all of today’s MLB predictions.

White Sox-Royals Alternate Under 8.5 (+110)

Rangers -1.5 (+172)

Orioles -2.5 (+158)

Parlay odds: +1374

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White Sox-Royals Alternate Under 8.5 (+110)

We can debate whether Jordan Montgomery, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander was the best trade deadline acquisition, but one of the most underrated pickups was Cole Ragans. The lefty had a 5.92 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP in 24.1 innings for the Rangers this season before being dealt to the Royals for Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has provided Texas with bullpen help (for the most part), and Kansas City got the guy they wanted, so it was a win-win for both sides. However, I don’t think anyone anticipated how good Ragans would be in his first few starts with the Royals. The southpaw is 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 7 starts for his new team. In that 7-start span, Ragans has limited hitters to a .222 batting average, a .201 xBA, a 34% strikeout rate and a 35% hard-hit rate. Those are elite numbers for a guy the Rangers didn’t see much value in. Ragans will take on a Chicago lineup that ranks 23rd in wRC+ and 1st in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since August 1. And to make it even more impressive, the lefty comes into this start on a 15-inning scoreless streak.

The White Sox will counter with their own rising star, Jesse Scholtens. The 29-year-old finally made it to the big leagues after being in the Minors since 2016, and he’s been fabulous in his rookie season. Scholtens started the season in the bullpen in the long-relief role, but he was moved into the rotation after the White Sox traded away Lucas Giolito at the deadline. Since then, the right-hander owns a 4.73 ERA and has limited hitters to a .242 xBA and a 37% hard-hit rate. Scholtens’ best pitch is also his primary pitch, his fastball, but he uses a slider when up in the count. That’s going to be the key to his success in this start since the Royals rank 29th against sliders since August 1. More recently, Kansas City ranks 29th in batting average and 30th in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitching since mid-August. Although I have very little confidence in either bullpen, the starting pitching matchup should create a cushion of a few runs. I’m backing the under with confidence.

This game is also featued in today’s MLB best bet

Texas Rangers -1.5 (+172) over Houston Astros

Although we still have over 3 weeks left in the season, this series is very important. The AL West race has become incredibly even between the Astros, Rangers and Mariners, and every game from here on out will hold some importance. That’s especially true for head-to-head matchups, and that’s what we have this week. The Astros will travel to Arlington for a 3-game series starting today, and the pitching matchup is fairly even on paper. Neither J.P. France nor Andrew Heaney has had a spectacular season, but Texas’ starter has the advantage on Monday. Heaney has made 3 starts against the Astros so far this season and has a 1.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 15 innings. He’s limited the Houston hitters to a .173 batting average, a .564 OPS and a 28.8% strikeout in those 3 starts, so he’s proven that he can limit Houston’s powerful lineup.

If the Astros want to make a postseason surge, they are going to need solid pitching performances from pitchers not named Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander. It will be J.P. France’s turn on Monday night, and he’s had a very up-and-down season. Just 2 starts ago, France was rocked for 10 runs, 11 hits and 2 home runs to the Red Sox. However, he bounced back lightly last outing with only 2 runs and 5 hits allowed in 5.2 innings. Still, I don’t have enough faith in France to put together a solid outing against an offensive juggernaut. Texas has proven that extra-base hits will win them games, and Adolis Garcia’s walk-off home run in last night’s game is a prime example. If Heaney can limit the Astros to 3 runs or less in 5 innings, he puts the Rangers in a great position to win by multiple runs.

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Baltimore Orioles -2.5 (+158) over Los Angeles Angels

The Angels putting half of their trade deadline acquisitions on waivers last week was finally waving the white flag on the season. Shohei Ohtani is in the midst of one of the greatest seasons we’ve ever seen, but the Angels have failed to surround him with the right players. Could this be Ohtani’s last season for the Halos? Maybe, but that’s a story for another day. For now, let’s get into why the Angels will lose badly to the Orioles in the series opener. First of all, the Angels are starting Kenny Rosenburg. Rosenburg is a lefty who made his season debut less than a month ago and has pitched just once since then. So far, he hasn’t been overly impressive since he’s allowed 5 runs, 9 hits and 7 walks in just 7 innings. I’m not too surprised by this since Rosenburg was also struggling at the Minor League level too, as he posted a 6.66 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 5 starts in August.

Grayson Rodriguez’s season has been a tale of two halves. In 10 starts before the all-star break, Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 45.1 innings. Hitters had a .307 batting average, a .290 xBA and a 53% hard-hit rate against him in that time. But after some time in the Minors, Baltimore’s #1 prospect came back and has been everything the Orioles were hoping for. He has a 2.83 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 8 starts in the second half of the season. Rodriguez has held hitters to a .199 xBA with just a 36% hard-hit rate in those 8 outings, so his improvement hasn’t been from luck. The 23-year-old is backed by a Baltimore lineup that is far more dependable than Los Angeles’, so I’m expecting the series to start with a big win for the O’s.

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