MLB Friday parlay at mega (+984) odds today 8/4: Luis Severino is really, really bad

Welcome to the end of the work week, and to celebrate, how about an MLB mega parlay near 10/1 odds? That’s right, I’ve combined my 3 favorite picks from Friday’s slate to make a huge +984 parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.

Astros -1.5 (+120)

Red Sox -1.5 (+124)

Rockies-Cardinals Alternate Total Over 10.5 (+120)

Parlay odds: +984

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Houston Astros -1.5 (+120) over New York Yankees

The New York Yankees’ pitching staff is a mess. Here’s a short recap – Carlos Rodon has a 6.29 ERA, Nestor Cortes is hurt, Domingo German will miss the rest of the season due to off-the-field issues, Frankie Montas is still out, and finally, Luis Severino has an ERA over 7 entering August. Yeah, not good. Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt have had to put the rotation on their back this season. But back to Severino, his 7.49 ERA over 12 starts is the highest in Yankees history. And it’s clear that Severino is starting to feel the effects of his terrible season since he was quoted saying, “I feel like I’m the worst pitcher in the game” after his last start. It’s hard to disagree since he’s allowed 12 runs, 18 hits and 3 home runs in his last 9 innings to the Royals and Orioles.

On the completely other end of the spectrum, Hunter Brown has had a solid showing in his first year in Houston’s rotation. After 20 starts, Brown has a 4.12 ERA paired with a 3.97 xERA and 3.71 FIP. But more recently, Brown has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 3 starts since the all-star break and has limited hitters to a .246 batting average and .239 xBA. Along with having the better starting pitcher, Houston also has a far better lineup. The Astros have the 6th best batting average and 7th best wRC+ in the second half of the season, so I’m pretty confident that they can secure the big win in the Bronx.

Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+124) over Toronto Blue Jays

Two words – Alek Manoah. The right-hander is back in the big leagues, but I still don’t trust him. After posting a 6.36 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP in 13 starts, Manoah was sent down to the Minors, and we all know how that went. But now he’s back in the big leagues and has allowed 9 runs, 15 hits and 12 walks in 18.2 innings during his 4 starts. Admittedly, he’s not allowing as many extra-base hits or home runs as he was earlier in the season, but his control is absolutely still a problem. He’s surrendered 12 walks in his last 12.1 innings which has been a weakness that teams have happily exploited. And besides having Manoah on the hill, the Blue Jays will be without Bo Bichette in the lineup.

I was slightly surprised to not see James Paxton dealt at the trade deadline, but as a Red Sox fan, I can’t complain. In 13 starts, the Big Maple has a 3.34 ERA paired with a 3.19 xERA and a stellar 28.4% strikeout rate. Paxton has been the definition of consistency this season since he’s allowed 3 runs or less in 11 of his 13 outings this season, and one of the best starts of his season came against Toronto. Paxton threw 7.2 scoreless innings while allowing just 3 hits in Canada at the end of June, and that was with Bichette in the lineup. Now that the Jays are without their best hitter, Paxton should have a much easier time through their lineup. The starting pitching matchup is incredibly lopsided, so I’m not double-thinking this one – back the Sox to mash Manoah.

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Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Over 10.5 (+120)

15.26. That’s what you would get if you combine the ERAs of the two starting pitchers. This is the type of game that could see double-digit runs by the time the bullpens get the ball. On the mound for the Rockies is Chris Flexen, who owns a 0-5 record with an 8.08 ERA in 42 innings this season. Flexen was recently traded from the Mariners to the Mets in a salary dump, and he was immediately released by New York. It didn’t take too long for him to find a home however, as Colorado took a chance on the veteran and signed him to a Minor-League contract. He made 2 starts in Triple-A for the Rockies and looked like a rejuvenated version of himself as he posted a 0.96 ERA in 2 starts, but that success didn’t translate to the big leagues. In his lone start for the Rockies, Flexen was shelled for 6 runs, 4 hits, 2 home runs and 6 walks in just 3.2 innings by the Athletics.

You would think that the opposing team would have an obvious advantage facing Flexen, but not so fast! Adam Wainwright will take the hill for the Cardinals, and the 41-year-old has a 7.18 ERA and a 7.59 xERA in 13 starts. He ranks in the 1st percentile in xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate and whiff rate this year. Wainwright missed a few weeks in July as the Cardinals sidelined him to help his reputation, but in his 2 starts since returning, Wainwright hasn’t been that much better. He’s allowed 6 runs, 11 hits, 2 home runs and 5 walks in just 11 innings as opponents have a .275 batting average and 40% hard-hit rate in that time. Both of these pitchers have been horrible this season, so the best choice in this game is runs, runs and a lot more runs.

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