Marketa Vondrousova vs Ons Jabeur Wimbledon Tennis Women’s Singles Final Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

My pre-tournament best bet of Aryna Sabalenka at +650 was in prime position to cash after world #1 Iga Swiatek and defending Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina got bounced in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka made it safely to the semis and even led Ons Jabeur by a set and a break on Thursday, but she could not close the deal.

Alas, now it’s Jabeur vs. Marketa Vondrousova in a surprising final showdown. My outright plays are out on the women’s side, but let’s nonetheless try to end the tournament in style. Here are my best bets for Day 13. 

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Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur Over 21.5 games (-115)

This is not a big number at all for a match that is likely to be competitive between 2 players in stellar form. Any 3-set affair will obviously go well over the total and even a straight-set result would have a decent opportunity to cash (for example, something like 7-6, 6-3). Jabeur is a sizable favorite to win, but Vondrousova cannot be discounted. The 24-year-old was already a Grand Slam finalist even before this (2019 French Open), so she knows what she is doing on the biggest stages in tennis. Her run to the final hasn’t been as impressive at Jabeur’s, but wins over Veronika Kudermetova, Donna Vekic, Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina are no joke. Vondrousova has played a pair of 3-setters during this event and Jabeur has battled through 3 of them – including in each of her last 2 matches. Another long match should be on Saturday’s menu.

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Marketa Vondrousova +3.5 games over Ons Jabeur (-115) 

The Vondrousova game spread correlates nicely with the over pick, because if the Czech keeps it close then it will probably be a long match with a lot of games. And it’s a game spread that is surprisingly big; +3.5 is a lot for a best-of-3 contest. There is no reason why Vondrousova should not be competitive, as these 2 competitors have squared off on 3 previous occasions and the head-to-head series stands at 3-3. Jabeur got the best of their only previous grass-court showdown (2 years ago in Eastbourne), but the second set required a tiebreaker. Vondrousova has won both of their 2023 encounters this season – on hard courts at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells. The underdog could even win this one outright.

Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur Over 5.5 double-faults (-115) 

Vondrousova has double-faulted 18 times through 6 matches. Jabeur doubled on 14 occasions during her trek to the championship match. That leaves their averages at 3 per match and 2.33 per match, respectively. That’s pretty much right on the number that is set for Sunday’s showdown. Keep in mind, though, that no match in tennis comes with more pressure than the Wimbledon final. Pressure leads to tightness, which results in errors — double-faults included. As mentioned, I am also predicting a long match — which would mean more points played and more opportunities for double-faults. Vondrousova DFed a ridiculous 6 times in the semis against Svitolina even though that was a very quick 6-3, 6-3 contest. The left-hander also double-faulted 3 times in her only previous major final appearance despite playing only 16 total games in a 6-1, 6-3 loss to Ashleigh Barty at the 2019 French Open.

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