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Instant Observations: J.T. Realmuto Lifts Phillies to Home Opener Win

April 8, 2023
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It all happened a day later than originally planned, but the Phillies returned home following a rough first week and got things started on the right foot at Citizens Bank Park with a 5-2 win over the Reds.

Zack Wheeler rebounded with stellar outing, four Phillies relievers combined to nail down 11 outs, and J.T. Realmuto provided the heroics with a go-ahead two-run blast.

Let’s jump right into some observations from the Phillies’ third straight home opener victory.

Be Heard, Be Seen

Credit Nick Castellanos for making something happen early. He opened up the bottom of the second with a double and soon followed it with some crafty base-running that helped push across the first run of the game.

With third base essentially vacated by Cincinnati’s Spencer Steer, check out Castellanos working his way down the line and into the view of Hunter Greene.

A legitimate threat to steal home he wasn’t, but he was just present enough, just annoying enough, to possibly create some disruption and break Greene’s concentration.

With Greene speeding up and the Citizens Bank Park volume cranking up, the Reds starter issued three consecutive walks.

You know all the clichés about good teams doing the little things well. Through their first six games, the Phillies had largely not been taking care of the little things. Here they did, and they scratched across a run from third without a key two-out hit.

Castellanos Stock Watch

Speaking of Castellanos, his game was a sight for sore eyes. Yeah, the two doubles were nice and all, but what about that walk he worked in the seventh?

Oh, baby!

After Cincinnati reliever Derek Law evened the count at 2-2, Castellanos spit on a low and away slider. He then took a 3-2 cutter, again low and way, for ball four.

While easy to overlook in the moment, this is exactly the type of work that could spur that bounce back season everybody is hoping for.

The whole thing still looks like a work in progress, but five extra-base hits and flashes of improved plate discipline are reasons for optimism. Entering Friday, Castellanos offered at 26.3 percent of pitches outside of the zone, down from a career high 43.6 percent last season.

The fear, of course, is that he gets off to a slow start and ultimately can’t halt the carryover momentum of a disappointing 2022 season. That fear is exacerbated by the inconvenient reality that a Castellanos rebound season is no longer a luxury for a loaded lineup, it’s a must for one significantly weakened by injury.

Let It Rip

No problem here with Trea Turner’s decision to turn it loose with a 2-0 count and the bases loaded in the second inning.

Of course, Turner flied out to end the Phillies’ threat, and I understand why some fans were annoyed by the swing.

Greene was all over the place and appeared on the brink of self-destruction. Typically, you don’t want to do anything to help a pitcher get off the ropes in such a spot, but Turner, whose two hits raised his average to .375, is the Phillies’ best hitter by a wide margin. He also went after a strike. With a depleted offense in search of a spark, Turner represents one of the Phillies’ few hitters right now who can consistently put together difference-making swings.

I’m willing to bet there will come a time later this season when a similarly aggressive approach will pay off.

Blink and You’ll Miss It

As has been the case through his first 26 career starts, the results have been mixed for Greene, but damn, his talent is off the charts.

Greene blew through the bottom of the first by striking out Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Realmuto. It took what felt like two minutes flat.

With the aide of the pitch clock in effect, it also might have been the quickest half inning featuring three punch outs in MLB history. Greene generated five whiffs on seven fastballs averaging 99.5 mph.

Nothing Really Matters

Here’s a tweet I threw out there following the Braves’ Thursday night comeback win over the Padres.

If anything, I thought I was stating the obvious. Guess not.

I got both plenty of reminders that we’re just six games (now seven) in.

That’s true.

Overcoming a 4 1/2 game deficit can be done in a week, let alone 156 games over six months, but that’s not the point.

The Phillies finished 14 games behind the Braves last season before pulling an NLDS upset. Losing that much ground out of the gate to a team oddsmakers and most baseball people already had a step or two ahead coming in — while dealing with a slew of injuries to key players — will make it substantially harder to win what figures to be an ultra-competitive division.

This isn’t hot take shit after a few beers on the couch. Per FanGraphs, the Phillies’ odds to win the division shrunk from 8.7 percent to 4.8 percent over seven days.

I also had a couple DMs come through basically writing off the division as insignificant. After all, just look at what happened last year, right?

I guess, but I would argue that just because the Phillies made the World Series as a wild card team last year doesn’t mean history simply repeats itself. Said another way, just because something happened once doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again.

For the sake of comparison, a total of seven NFL wild card teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl, and I can promise you each of them would have preferred to travel the road afforded by a division title or homefield advantage.

Of course the Phillies can still win the division, make the playoffs, and achieve all of their goals, but I don’t see how you can pair up the mounting injuries along with a quick deficit and write off the week as totally insignificant.

Other Observations

  • Wheeler was far from his best on Friday, but his second start of the season was a big step forward. He limited the Reds to two runs over 5 1/3 innings despite yielding five hits and three walks. Still, he failed to hold a 2-1 lead before departing in the sixth with one away and a runner on second.
  • Nice work by Andrew Bellatti, who stranded that potential go-ahead run. It was his fifth appearance in seven games (that’s 71.4 percent of games). At his current rate, Bellatti is on pace to appear in 116 games this season. I don’t think that’s sustainable…
  • Dating back to last Saturday, Jose Alvarado has struck out the last seven batters he has faced.
  • Finally, pardon my “fanboy journalism” here. This slide. Quite smooth.

The post Instant Observations: J.T. Realmuto Lifts Phillies to Home Opener Win appeared first on Crossing Broad.

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