How Bucs Can Handle The Tom Brady Cap Implications

Per Adam Schefter of ESPN, Bucs quarterback Tom Brady has officially sent his notice of retirement to the NFL league offices.

Tom Brady officially filed a letter today with the NFL and NFLPA, reconfirming his Feb. 1 retirement, per sources.

This letter silences any questions about whether Brady might return and now makes him eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Class of 2028. pic.twitter.com/o8iAgbxrQS

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 10, 2023

This most likely means the Bucs salary cap situation just got more difficult for 2023. The way Brady’s contract was structured, the Bucs are left with a $35,104,000 dead cap hit. This combined with their other current salary cap commitments leave the team $55 million over the 2023 cap.

Many, myself included, suspected the team and Brady would work together to have Brady sign a place holder contract to help the Bucs split the salary cap hit over both the 2023 and 2024 seasons in an effort to reduce the financial impact this upcoming season. And while that can still technically happen, it seems very unlikely at this point. Instead, Tampa Bay seems willing to bite the bullet, pay the piper – or any other trite expression you see fit to use – and absorb all of Brady’s $35,104,000 cap hit this year to help clear their salary cap books in 2024.

So how can the team clear over $55 million just to become cap compliant by the new league year on March 15?

Cuts Are Coming

The Bucs are certain to cut some veteran players as they start to work their way through a post-Brady world. The most likely candidates are tight end Cameron Brate, running back Leonard Fournette and kicker Ryan Succop. While each were important contributors to the team’s 2021 Super Bowl, all three represent production that can be reasonably replicated by a player on a cheaper contract. The Bucs can save $2,030,000 if they release Brate, $3,470,588 if they let go of Fournette, and $3,250,000 by cutting Succop. Those three combined get the Bucs $8,750,580 closer to becoming salary cap compliant.

Two Other Players Could Be Added To The Cut List

While Brate, Fournette and Succop are very likely to be released, there are two additional players who may join them. Left tackle Donovan Smith and wide receiver Russell Gage both represent potential cut candidates as they both could provide the team with cap savings. There is an argument to be made for each to remain with the team, though those arguments vary between the two players.

With Smith, there isn’t an obvious replacement currently on the roster. And finding a replacement that the Bucs can count on via free agency would require the team to make a substantial investment. Opening up $9,950,000 in cap space by releasing Smith sounds like a good plan until you realize a reliable replacement on the open market would cost more than that.

And if the Bucs want to find that replacement via the NFL Draft, they would most likely need to use a first or second round pick on the position. It is certainly a route they could go, but in doing so they forego replenishing their reinforcements in the secondary, defensive line, linebacker, offensive playmaker or quarterback.

Gage on the other hand represents a smaller salary cap relief for the team. If the Bucs release him before June 1, the cap savings are only $2,833,333 for 2023. But what the Bucs do save is $10 million in actual cash paid to Gage.

Gage isn’t a starter as the Bucs have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin ahead of him. However, in the modern NFL a reliable third receiver is just about a must-have. If the Bucs do opt to let Gage go, they have scant-little in the way of a reliable third option and will again have to spend somewhere to replace him.

If the Bucs go this route with both Smith and Gage, their cap overage will fall to $33,498,000.

Restructures, Restructures Everywhere

Cuts alone won’t solve all of the Bucs salary cap woes. There is no way they can avoid restructuring some of their veteran contracts. There are several players who are candidates to have their contracts restructured. These are players on veteran deals with at least two years remaining on them. Chris Godwin, Shaq Barrett, Ryan Jensen, Vita Vea and Carlton Davis III all represent opportunities for the Bucs to create cap savings in 2023.

Vita Vea

Vea will most likely be the first contract the Bucs touch. Vea is set to have a $12,500,000 salary in 2023. The Bucs can convert $11,420,000 of that into a prorated bonus. They can stretch the proration over the remaining four years of his contract without using void years. Doing so would reduce Vea’s cap hit from $15,651,652 to $4,346,765.

Chris Godwin and Carlton Davis III

Godwin and Davis both agreed to three-year deals just last year. For Godwin they can restructure the vast majority of his $20,000,000 salary across not only 2023 and 2024, but also the 2025 and 2026 seasons that he already has dead cap hits assigned to. That would reduce his $23,750,000 cap hit to $9,560,000.

Davis’ situation is a bit trickier. The Bucs did not set him up with void years last year. If the team opts to restructure his deal, it has to choose between a smaller cap savings in 2023 in favor of not creating future dead cap hits or getting the maximum savings on the cap this year but creating more trouble in 2025. The first option allows the team to save $6,710,000. The second option increases those cap savings to up to $10,736,000.

Ryan Jensen and Shaq Barrett

Jensen and Barrett are both on the wrong side of their 30th birthdays and both coming off of significant lower body injuries. In an ideal world the Bucs probably don’t kick the can on either contract. But the fact is they are going to have to. Even with the cuts and restructures I detailed above the Bucs are still set to be somewhere between $1.2 million over and $2.8 million under the salary cap. But they still have to find players to fill the 23 roster spots set to be vacated by impending free agents. By restructuring Jensen and Barrett the team can free up over $18.3 million to give them the limited room they will need to make small deals to fill out the roster.

Extensions?

The Bucs don’t have many candidates for extensions that could help the team’s cap situation in 2023. Davis is one, but I don’t think the team is looking there at the moment. They could give Godwin an extra year, which would amount to a very similar savings in 2023 but retain his services for another year. But the two most likely candidates in my mind are Mike Evans and Devin White.

Evans is on the last year of his current deal. The Bucs owe him $14.5 million in cash on a $23,698,500 salary cap hit. If the Bucs decided to give him a two-year, $40 million extension they could lower his 2023 cap hit by $11,500,000.

White is the interesting one. Head coach Todd Bowles loves White, and his natural physical gifts are undeniable. He improved his consistency over the back half of 2022 and is set to play 2023 on his fifth-year option for $11,706,000.

The team could tear that option up and replace it with a brand-new contract. That contract I have previously projected at five years and $102.5 million. If that were to happen, they could save an additional $2,206,000 on the cap.

All-in-all the Bucs are set to make a flurry of moves leading up to the new league year, which is March 15 at 4:00 p.m. ET. Many of these will happen. Some won’t. But the bill is coming due for their Super Bowl window from 2020-22 in the 2023 season.