Good Vibes, Bad Vibes + Waiver Strategy Talk

Preseason Vibes…
Cardinals QB Situation 07:17

• The Cardinals cut Colt McCoy, the presumed starter, and traded for Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune as rookie options.
• Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals coach, has decided not to reveal the starter for competitive advantage.
• This approach is criticized as the adage goes, “if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks.” 08:25

“If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks.”

Concerns for Fantasy Players 08:58

• Fantasy players have a legitimate concern about the quarterback situation of the Tennessee Titans.
• With Tana Hill out, the options at quarterback are Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune.
• There is uncertainty about the performance of these quarterbacks, which could negatively impact players like James Conner and Hollywood Brown.
• The current quarterback situation raises concerns about the floor of these players.

“I think fantasy players have a legitimate concern at this point…And we’re talking probably seven to 10 years.”

Arizona Cardinals‘ Troubling Vibes 09:48

• The Arizona Cardinals‘ quarterback situation is a cause for concern.
• The potential starting quarterbacks, Kellan Mond and Ian Book, are not expected to provide a high ceiling for fantasy players.
• This affects players like Hollywood Brown and James Conner, who no longer have the floor that was initially expected.
• There are suspicions that the Cardinals may be tanking, given their recent decisions.

“And the vibes are as bad as bad can be in Arizona…Like, they’re like, we don’t want to deal with this. Which is what Cole McCoy’s was, too. I mean, you are settling up for next year.”

Uncertain Future of Kyler Murray 11:01

• There is uncertainty surrounding the return of Kyler Murray from injury.
• While it is expected that he will play in the latter half of the year, there is speculation that the Cardinals may showcase him for a potential trade if they have the number one pick.
• The overall vibes in Arizona are negative, and they are considered significant underdogs in the upcoming season.

“I don’t know if that’s true. It seems like he probably will in the back half of the year. But is that to put him on display for a trade in the offseason if they have the number one pick? I don’t know. The vibes are as bad as bad can be in Arizona.”

Pittsburgh Steelers‘ Positive Preseason 13:14

• The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a strong preseason, with their performances looking promising.
• Kenny Pickett, the quarterback, has shown great potential and has been in full command of the offense.
• The way Pickett reads and throws the ball, as well as his leadership skills, indicate that he has taken a step forward from his rookie season.
• The positive preseason performances of the Steelers bode well for their offensive players, such as Najee Harris, Jalen Warren, Deontay Johnson, and Pat Fryermuth.

“And specifically, Kenny Pickett, to me, he is the question and the answer of how the Pittsburgh Steelers offense will perform…The vibes for me have just been really, really positive.”

Pittsburgh Steelers‘ Offense Improvement 15:01

• The improvement of the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ offense from last season to this season is significant.
• The jump from a bottom-tier offense to a top-half offense presents a significant fantasy value opportunity.
• The team’s weapons, including Najee Harris, Jalen Warren, Deontay Johnson, and Pat Fryermuth, make the offense even more potent.
• Kenny Pickett‘s preseason performances provide hope for a successful offensive season.

“It’s a top half offense. And when you go from the putrid horse crap we saw last year to a top half offense, that is a huge fantasy value sauce.”

Impressive preseason for Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth 16:20

• The Steelers’ preseason performance has been impressive, with their drives being finished and getting into the end zone.
• This has led to increased interest in drafting players like Deontay Johnson and Pat Fryer-Muse.

“And it’s made me look specifically Deontay Johnson and Pat Fryer-Muse way more in drafts.”

Diontae Johnson‘s improved role in the preseason 16:39

• Deontay Johnson has been utilized deeper and further downfield in the preseason, which is a positive sign.
• This indicates that he may have the potential for big plays and more substantial yards receptions this season.

“And Deontay Johnson, if you haven’t been paying attention, has been used a little bit deeper, a little bit further downfield this preseason, which is nice to see.”

Concerns with the Denver Broncos‘ offseason and injuries 17:05

• The Denver Broncos‘ offseason got off to a strange start with a media fight and unconventional coaching behavior.
• Injuries have also piled up, impacting key players like Tim Patrick, Jerry Judy, and Greg Dulcich.
• These issues raise concerns about the team’s overall performance and offensive potential.

“And it’s the Denver Broncos. And I have them down from weirdish to bad…Then the injuries, that’s no one’s fault, but it’s just… They’re piling up.”

Marvin Mims‘ opportunity in the Broncos’ offense 19:25

• Despite the Broncos’ challenges, the injuries create an opportunity for Marvin Memms.
• Memms is expected to have a significant role as the wide receiver two at the beginning of the season.
• However, investing in Memms is also a bet on the Broncos’ struggling offense and the ability of Teddy Bridgewater to elevate the passing game.

“I think that the way that they’re using Dulcich in preseason is more hiding him, but TBD…I still believe it is there personally.”

Evaluating Russell Wilson in fantasy drafts 21:07

• In a Superflex draft, given the choice between Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford, it’s recommended to go for the stack and select Matthew Stafford.
• Although passing up on the value of Russell Wilson may seem counterintuitive, the uncertainty surrounding the Seahawks’ offensive consistency and the ability of Shane Waldron to maximize Wilson’s potential make Stafford a more reliable option.

“I think if both are available when I’m on the clock, I think I’m going Stafford.”

Updates on NFL news and cut downs 22:06

• Kyler Murray has been placed on the reserve PUP list and will miss at least four games.
• Jackson Smith and Jigba, the rookie wide receiver for the Seahawks, underwent wrist surgery but is expected to be back before week four.

“Kyler onto the reserve PUP to start the season missing at least four games…Rookie wide receiver, Jackson Smith and Jigba, who just underwent surgery to repair a small broken bone in his wrist, expected to begin the season on the active roster.”

Jonathan Taylor‘s Status 23:20

• There is uncertainty about Jonathan Taylor‘s status for the upcoming season.
• The Colts have the option to put him on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list or trade him.
• If he goes on the PUP list, it confirms that his ankle issue is still a concern.
• A trade could also happen before the deadline.

“I don’t know what in the world you do with him in drafts right now.”

Assessing Jonathan Taylor‘s Value 23:59

• Jonathan Taylor‘s value in drafts depends on the outcome of the PUP decision or a potential trade.
• If he remains on the PUP list, his value would drop significantly.
• A trade could completely change his situation and impact other fantasy players on the involved teams.

“This is a pretty big deal.”

Strategy for Drafting Dalvin Cook 24:50

• Dalvin Cook is an interesting selection in drafts.
• Even if he only plays the first few weeks, that would still be valuable.
• Having a player like Cook while waiting for Jonathan Taylor‘s situation to clarify could be worth it.

“I’ve just, there’s definitely a spot where I will.”

Breaking down the Fantasy Season 25:34

• It’s important to break down the fantasy season into chunks.
• Each section requires different preparation.
• Considering these chunks can help with drafting and managing the team effectively.

“I love taking Dalvin Cook.”

Mark Andrews‘ Practice Status 26:10

• Mark Andrews has missed three straight days of practice.
• The expectation is that he will practice and play in the opener.
• Andrews being on the field is crucial for his fantasy value.

“The only issue that I see with Mark Andrews, truly, is just making sure he’s on the field.”

Concerns about CJ Stroud as a Starter 26:45

• CJ Stroud has been named the starter for the team but has raised concerns.
• The team is 10-point underdogs in the opener against Baltimore.
• Stroud’s preseason performance was not impressive.

“There is an advantage of saying, I don’t know who we’re playing.”

Wan’Dale Robinson‘s Activated Status 28:35

• Wondale Robinson has been activated off the PUP list.
• There haven’t been any updates on him during the entire offseason.
• Robinson has potential but lacks recent information to assess his fantasy value.

“When is it gonna happen?”

Release of Jameson Crowder by the Giants 28:38

• Jameson Crowder has been released by the Giants.
• This news could have implications for other wide receivers on the Giants’ roster.
• Crowder’s absence opens up opportunities for other players.

“That’s at least some good.”

Myles Gaskin‘s Release 29:23

• Miles Gaskin has been released by the team.
• This affects his fantasy value and opens up opportunities for other running backs.

“The gas man. He ran out.”

Kicker Drama in the NFL 29:39

• There has been some significant kicker drama in the NFL.
• Will Lutz has been traded to the Broncos.
• The Chargers have named Cameron Dicker the starter and released Dustin Hopkins.
• Some teams are making changes to their kicking position.

“Yeah, I mean, with a name like Dicker, you knew he was gonna win the job.”

“I like Stroud. I like him being able to emerge as a quarterback, but it’s gonna be a rough start.”

Importance of Week One Breakouts 32:18

• Players that have a breakout performance in week one historically have a higher points per game total for the rest of the season.
• A breakout is defined as scoring 15 or more points in a half-point league.
• These early breakouts are better than players who break out later in the season.
• This trend indicates that players who excel in week one are more likely to maintain their high level of performance throughout the season.

“Historically speaking, those players that have a week one breakout, they are better than players that break out later.”

Evaluating Week One Breakouts 33:09

• When assessing players’ performance in week one, it is essential to go beyond the box score.
• Look for indications such as snap count, unexpected lineup positions, quarterback targeting certain receivers, or players displaying improved skills.
• The Fantasy Footballers watch every game and provide insights on which week one breakouts are likely sustainable and which are just flukes.

“Normally it’s looking at the box score and saying, wow, this player played 80% of snaps or this player lined up in this position that I didn’t expect or this quarterback was going to this guy or this guy was getting separation that I didn’t see coming.”

Examples of Past Week One Breakouts 34:28

• Geno Smith and Jamal Williams were both unrostered players who broke out in week one.
• Geno Smith went on to have a solid year, proving he was a valuable pickup.
• Jamal Williams, though rostered by 46% of teams heading into the season, exceeded expectations by scoring 17 touchdowns.
• Garrett Wilson was 60% rostered after week one, indicating that some players have their breakout performance early.
• Evan Ingram was not heavily rostered in week one, serving as another example of a player whose potential became evident after the initial week.

“We had a handful of these where week one, you kind of learned something new.”

Season Waiver Wire Steals 37:19

• Late-breaking news can offer valuable opportunities for waiver wire pickups.
• Alfred Morris‘s late announcement as the starting running back for Washington before the 2023 season proved to be a steal for those who picked him up.
• Picking up players early can provide flexibility and potential trade chips for your team.
• Historically, players who break out early in the season often have sustained opportunities.

“No one knew who he was until that week or so before, before the season started. So some people did pick him up right before, right before week one even started. It paid off, it paid off huge. And I mean, 1600 yards, 13 touchdowns later. I mean, he was like, he was the steal of that season.”

Taking Advantage of Early Breakouts 37:51

• By acting early and acquiring players who are displaying potential, you can benefit from their maximum playing time potential.
• Early breakouts can serve as valuable trade chips or add depth to your roster.
• Having conviction about a player’s opportunity combined with their performance increases your chances of success.

“If you hit early, because you’ve got all of your maximum amount of weeks that you could play that player, you’ve got a trade chip immediately. And this is not saying go all in. I mean, it goes, players overreact as well. But if you have the conviction about the opportunity combined with the performance, just know that historically those players that do break out early have the longest sustained opportunity.”

Leveraging the Waiver Wire and Undrafted Gems 38:35

• The waiver wire is an essential tool for making roster additions throughout the season.
• Waiver wire rankings are available to guide your decisions.
• Undrafted gems can be similar to late-season waiver wire steals, offering significant value for your team.
• Identifying players with potential before week one can give you an edge.

“And next week we’re gonna talk about some undrafted gyms. Those are kind of like what Mike is describing in Alfred Morris, where it’s like, you might be done with your draft. And there’s someone better than who you picked at the end. We’ll bring up some names next week so that you can pick them up before week one.”

Relying on Late Round Stashes 39:49

• Instead of drafting a kicker or defense, consider stashing players with potential upside.
• Monitoring news and potential upgrades during the last weeks before the season begins can result in significant roster improvements.
• If the stashed player doesn’t pan out, you can always drop them and pick up a kicker or defense.

“So it’s nice to have an extra couple chances. But Darren Waller, right before week one picked him up, you’re like, wow, this is a league-changing pickup. And the year hasn’t even started.”

Evaluating Derrick Henry‘s Value 44:19

• Derek Henry is likely to be a second-round pick in fantasy drafts.
• Some hesitation exists around his value due to age concerns.
• Draft strategy may be influenced depending on the stability of the first-round pick.

“I might pick based on my first pick. If I’m being completely honest, that may change it a little bit.”

Choosing Josh Jacobs Over Derrick Henry 44:59

• Personal preference may lead to selecting Josh Jacobs over Derek Henry.
• In half or full PPR leagues, Josh Jacobs is viewed as a better option.
• In standard leagues where pass-catching is minimal, Derek Henry is preferred.

“There is a place where you just go and get your guy. But it’s all about the opportunity cost of what you’re giving up.”

Is Jahmyr Gibbs Too Expensive for the First Round? 45:19

• Jameer Gibbs may be overvalued in some leagues.
• Emotional attachment should be set aside when considering appropriate value.
• The unemotional decision is to let Jameer Gibbs go and benefit from other players being pushed down the draft order.

“You’re not an option for me this year because what you represent instead is a player that will be drafted to push other players down the draft to me.”

The Impact of Isaiah Likely on Mark Andrews 47:01

• The emergence of Isaiah Likely may impact Mark Andrews‘ goal-line production.
• Concerns mainly revolve around Likely being a capable pass catcher near the goal line.
• It is unlikely that Likely’s presence will significantly diminish Mark Andrews‘ overall production.

“Maybe it represents, I don’t know, two touchdowns Mark Andrews doesn’t end up with over the year.”

Using Isaiah Likely as a Backup Option 48:23

• If Mark Andrews were to miss time, Isaiah Likely would be a valuable backup option.
• Likely’s talent and previous success in Mark Andrews‘ absence make him an interesting player.
• In the event of Andrews’ absence, Likely would be highly sought after on the waiver wire.

“Because he is a capable pass catcher. And we saw that he had some good games last year when Mark Andrews missed time.”