Fibonacci Encore: Predicting Bounce Back & Regression (Fantasy Football)

This article is a follow-up to Predicting Bounce-Back Candidates Using Fibonacci Levels. 

Please check it out if you want to know how this method works and what it can tell us about some bounce-back candidates such as Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Mark Andrews, Diontae Johnson, and Joe Mixon.

The NFL is chaotic. No matter how hard we try to predict scores, trends, and players’ performances, things can change unexpectedly from one minute to the next due to an injury, a holdout, a legal issue, a contract-related beef, or even a global pandemic. That’s why succeeding in this game we love called fantasy football requires not only skill but also a lot of luck.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote an article trying to find a way to consider these random, natural, and chaotic factors when looking at players’ careers and performances to predict possible future outcomes. That’s how I got into the Fibonacci rabbit hole.

Quick Method Recap

In short, this experiment consists of applying a simplified Fibonacci retracement tool on players’ performance graphs to analyze how their fantasy points per game have fluctuated over the years and predict realistic outcomes for their 2023 season.

For a more complete explanation of the Fibonacci sequence and its experimental use in fantasy football, please refer to the previous article. 

What Are We Looking For This Time?

We have already covered some bounce-back candidates to illustrate the method and get an idea of what to expect from them this year. Today we will dig into a wider variety of players in interesting situations to see what their career trend lines look like and draw some conclusions about their possible outcomes in 2023.

Again, it’s important to mention that this experiment should not be taken as a bullet-proof prediction. Instead, it can be seen as useful data to add to what you already believe or expect from these players.

Without further ado, let’s start with two guys who were requested by the Foot Clan in the comments: DK Metcalf and Deshaun Watson.

DK Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks WR

Overview

Even though he’s one of those very volatile WRs who shares the spotlight with another stud WR, DK Metcalf‘s fantasy points per game have remained strong during his whole career. His rookie year was his lowest finish in FPPG, and his sophomore campaign was his highest. After that, his production has been declining and even though he looked great as Geno Smith’s alpha WR in 2022, his production continued its downward trend.

2023 Expectations

The good news is that his 2022 production landed exactly on the Fibonacci golden zone, which is a natural spot for his trend line to change direction. If this is true and his production bounces back up in 2023, the method suggests he should be around 16 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, if not higher.

Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns QB

Overview

Voldemort is a tricky one. The dark lord has finished as the QB5 every time he has played a full season. His FPPG had a small dip in his sophomore campaign, but he trended up from there and retraced to the exact golden zone in 2020. But after refusing to play in 2021, signing a massive contract in Cleveland, and getting suspended for 11 games in 2022, he came back to play. As expected, he looked pretty bad and registered his lowest FPPG ever. What can we expect from Deshaun Watson in 2023?

2023 Expectations

After having a full offseason with his new team, things seem to look up for Deshaun Watson.  A bounce-back season is expected, but how high can he go after such a big dip? He might not reach his 23.5 FPPG from 2020, but if he’s able to at least touch the Fibonacci retracement golden zone, the chart suggests he could finish around 21 fantasy points per game. Fun fact: last season 21 FPPG would have been enough for him to finish as – yes, you guessed it – the QB5.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders WR

Overview

Davante Adams’ career has followed a super healthy upward trend. From 2014 to 2018 he had a steady leg up each season. In 2019 he had a very small retracement that bounced just between the 0.236 and 0.382 levels, which as I explained in Lamar Jackson’s chart from the previous article, is a sign of bullish momentum. Adams immediately bounced back up and registered a new highest point, from which he has been trending down for the past two seasons.

2023 Expectations

In 2022, Davante Adams’ FPPG production landed just in the golden zone, which is a good indicator that he could bounce back up. However, a lot of things have been changing in Las Vegas. Davante Adams is about to play with a starting quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr for the first time in 12 years! Of course, he is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL and he should be able to produce at a high level with Jimmy Garoppolo, but can he be elite? 

Davante Adams is the top TD regression candidate according to this brilliant article from Marvin Elequin, so bouncing back up won’t be an easy task. He was the second most targeted WR in 2022 and he should maintain that volume. But he also had the most unrealized air yards among all WRs and finished 81st in true catch rate due to a very poor 5.42 target quality rating. This means Jimmy G only needs to be competent to help Adams’ catch rate improve. If these pieces of the puzzle fall into place, the chart suggests he could score around 23 FPPG.

Marquise Brown – Arizona Cardinals WR

Overview

During his years in Baltimore, Hollywood’s career was a story of constant improvement. Every year he got better and scored more FPPG. When he got traded to the Arizona Cardinals in 2022 to play with his college quarterback and friend Kyler Murray, expectations were high. However, it was a very unlucky and disastrous season for the Cardinals where a lot of players got injured, including Marquise Brown. Nevertheless, before going down in Week 6, he was the WR6, and he averaged 15.41 PPR points in the games Deandre Hopkins didn’t play. That’s borderline WR1 territory. So what should we expect from Hollywood in 2023?

2023 Expectations

The Fibonacci chart shows that Marquise Brown’s fantasy points per game in 2022 were just above the 0.382 level. The question is: will it continue retracing down to the golden zone before bouncing back up or is this a bullish retracement ready to bounce now? Let’s look at his situation: With a 24% target share in 2022 and Deandre Hopkins’ departure, Marquise Brown is clearly the Cardinals’ WR1. Kyler Murray is trending in a good direction and he might miss fewer games than everyone expected. All these factors make me believe that Hollywood’s production might improve at least a little bit. If it does, a realistic expectation would be close to 14 FPPG.

James Conner – Arizona Cardinals RB

Overview

Let’s stay with the Cardinals for a bit and take a look at James Conner. After posting his best season ever in 2018, his production plummeted the next season way below any possible golden zone bounce. He kept trending down for another season until he signed with the Cardinals in 2021 and scored his second-highest FPPG. They re-signed him for three more years in 2022, and even though his production came down a bit, it was still pretty decent.

2023 Expectations

James Conner’s production from 2022 lies exactly at the 0.382 retracement level. This opens two possible outcomes and both look quite good. If this was just the first half of a downward trend, Conner’s FPPG could still go down a little bit more to the previous golden zone and score around 14 fantasy points per game. If he bounces up from the 0.382, a realistic expectation would be the next golden zone, around 16 FPPG.

Some people might consider these two scenarios too bullish for Conner, but he is the owner of Arizona’s backfield with no real competition behind him. So his rushing volume and involvement in the passing game might be enough for him to finish within this range.

Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR

Overview

After having a massive drop in production from 2016 to 2017, Mike Evans bounced back up to the expected golden zone in 2018. From there on, he has been as steady as always, but his fantasy points per game have been slowly declining. In 2020 he almost touched that long retracement’s golden zone but finished just above. Then after finishing a little higher in 2021, he finally reached the promised golden zone in 2022.

2023 Expectations

I know it’s not exciting to trust in Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask, but Mike Evans is one of the most trustworthy wide receivers. The way his trend line arrived so slowly at the golden zone would suggest that a bounce-back is possible, and taking his previous highest finish from 2018 as a reference, a realistic expectation could be around the 16.5 FPPG. At his current ADP, he is worth a shot.

Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans RB

Overview

Derrick Henry’s career has been a long and steady trend line to the moon. Every single season from 2016 to 2021 he scored more fantasy points per game than the last one. Despite some people fearing his age, he was still great in 2022, but we can’t ignore that it was the first time his FPPG went down. So what can we expect now?

2023 Expectations

We all know the yeti is an outlier. It seems that his wheels might never fall off. But they will someday. The question is when? We have two outcomes again. His 2022 production is just above the 0.382 level, so it could be a bullish retracement from which to bounce to the next golden zone and score around 23 FPPG. But the retracement could also continue going all the way down to the main golden zone, established by his big upward trend.

Derrick Henry isn’t as expensive as last year, but if the second scenario plays out, people who draft him will be very disappointed. However, fantasy football is about taking risks and looking for upside, so what do you think? Are you ready to ride the Yeti again to your fantasy playoffs? Or are you out?