Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 16

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 16!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on various factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a complete picture of a player’s value.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• Among the running back leaders in fantasy usage, James Cook is the most surprising player at the top of this list. Since the Ken Dorsey firing, Cook has been much more involved in the Bills’ offense, accounting for 31% of the team’s opportunities. Especially in the receiving game, he has been a clear leader out of the backfield, averaging the highest route participation (40%) and targets per route run (31%) among Bills’ running backs. He also ranks as the RB4 in usage with 15.9 Expected Fantasy Points, behind only Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara over the last five weeks. With such elite usage, Cook should be primed for another RB1 performance against a Chargers defense that just allowed Javonte Williams and Zamir White to finish within the top 12 in back-to-back weeks. 

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