Dynasty Outlook: Sophomore WRs Heading Into 2023 (Fantasy Football)

Wide receivers heading into their second professional season have proven to be invaluable assets in fantasy football. Most of these players have already displayed significant amounts of promise in their rookie seasons. With that said, the majority of them have yet to even scratch the surface of their full potential. Although there are undoubtedly some exciting names in this year’s class, the 2022 NFL Draft proved to be historic for wide receiver talent. In fact, six wide receivers were taken in the first round, tying an NFL record. In this article, we will rank and showcase the six first-round wide receivers from the 2022 NFL Draft, discussing their outlook for the 2023 season and beyond.

Can’t get enough info on second year wide receivers? Check out Kurt Mullen’s new article: Second Year Wide Receivers to Target in Fantasy Football.

1) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

Who else would be more suitable to kick off this article than the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year? Garrett Wilson proved to be a certified dawg in his rookie campaign. Despite facing numerous hurdles in his debut season, including an unstable carousel of underwhelming quarterbacks, Wilson triumphed over adversity. He emerged as the leader among rookie wide receivers in receptions (83), receiving yards (1,103), and targets (147). In fact, his 147 targets were the highest for a rookie wide receiver since Anquan Boldin in 2003. Notably, Wilson averaged an impressive 1.85 yards per route run and topped the league in missed tackles forced.

Heading into his sophomore campaign, Wilson assumes the role of the undisputed WR1 for the New York Jets. The team made significant strides in addressing their quarterback situation during the offseason. Instead of relying on a less-than-desirable combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White, Wilson will now have the privilege of playing alongside the legendary quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Despite experiencing a slightly below-par statistical season last year, Rodgers had previously secured back-to-back MVP awards in the two seasons prior. Now, his aim is to transform a roster brimming with untapped potential into a Super Bowl-contending team in 2023.

New Quarterback, New Expectations

The prospect of pairing Wilson with a virtuoso quarterback like Rodgers is incredibly exciting, particularly for his fantasy outlook in 2023. Despite Wilson’s impressive production in his rookie season, he only managed to score four touchdowns. However, with Rodgers at the helm, we can anticipate a significant increase in that number. As per Aaron Larson’s Fantasy Football Target Report for the 2022 Season, Wilson had the seventh-highest targets per game average last season (8.6). The only players ranking higher in this category were CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Travis Kelce. Notably, all of these players would have finished as the WR6 or better last season, whereas Wilson finished as the WR24. The primary distinction between Wilson’s 2022 performance and the players ranked above him lies in touchdown production.

While it is understandable to question if Aaron Rodgers is finally succumbing to Father Time, it is significant to acknowledge that even a slightly diminished version of Rodgers will elevate Wilson’s game to new heights. In 2022, the Jets managed a mere 15 passing touchdowns, whereas Rodgers contributed 26 in what was deemed a subpar year for him. Now, he will reunite with his former offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Despite Hackett’s recent struggles in Denver, during the two seasons he worked with Rodgers in Green Bay, he amassed a combined total of 85 passing touchdowns. This elite level of production earned Rodgers the Most Valuable Player award in consecutive seasons. With Rodgers at the helm, Wilson’s catch percentage and touchdown production are expected to soar. It is within the realm of possibility for the young wide receiver to finish within the top five at his position in 2023.

Dynasty Outlook

Garrett Wilson stands out as the premier choice among all wide receivers entering their second professional season, both in dynasty and redraft formats. However, his future beyond the upcoming season appears a bit uncertain. Aaron Rodgers’ illustrious career is undeniably nearing an end. Once he decides to officially retire, the Jets will once again find themselves in quarterback limbo. However, as long as the next quarterback can outperform Zach Wilson‘s production from last season, there should be minimal concerns. To put it simply, Garrett Wilson is the kind of player who excels regardless of the quarterback situation. His sole vulnerability might be quarterbacks who happen to share his last name.

2) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

We just explored the numerous factors that make Garrett Wilson the most outstanding wide receiver from last year’s draft class. Now it is time to shift our focus to his equally remarkable college teammate, Chris Olave. Among rookie wide receivers, Wilson (WR19) and Olave (WR25) were the only two to secure spots within the top 25 at their position. Additionally, they became the first pair of collegiate teammates to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in their rookie season. Similar to Wilson, Olave faced considerable challenges with his share of poor quarterback support last season.

Get in the Carr

In a significant offseason move, the New Orleans Saints secured the services of Derek Carr with a substantial four-year, $150 million contract. While Carr may not reach the elite status of Aaron Rodgers, his arrival promises a significant upgrade at the quarterback position. Last season, Olave was forced to play with a washed-up version of Andy Dalton. Dalton did enough to exceed his modest expectations but did minimal to elevate his receiver’s weekly fantasy upside. It is also worth noting that Carr is more than seven years younger than Rodgers. This offers a potential advantage for the sustainability of Olave’s long-term dynasty outlook. 

Since 2014, we’ve had 11 rookie WRs hit 50+ receptions with a Yards per Route run of 2.04 or MORE.

Their sophomore year? 8 of the 11 were top-12 the next year!

Olave & London pic.twitter.com/VOHuqyqib6

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) August 28, 2023

Derek Carr has established himself as one of the premier deep-ball passers throughout his career, which aligns perfectly with Olave’s exceptional ability to create separation downfield. Last season, Olave ranked eighth in the league in air yards. Unfortunately, he was hindered by a lack of accurate and consistent quarterback play. In contrast, when paired with Carr, Davante Adams led the league in air yards and commanded an insane 32.6% target share. The ultimate dream is for Olave to receive comparable opportunities and usage from his new quarterback, allowing him to thrive as a deep threat and become the centerpiece of the offense.

Dynasty Outlook

Entering his second professional season, Chris Olave stands out as one of the most highly recommended wide receivers to trade for in dynasty. The presence of seasoned quarterback Derek Carr should accelerate Olave’s progression into a true alpha receiver. He has a genuine chance to finish inside of the top 12 at the position in 2023. With minimal competition on the current depth chart and a capable quarterback leading the way, Olave is fully equipped to excel both in the present and future. In fact, it is highly likely that his rookie WR25 finish will be his least productive fantasy finish for the foreseeable future.

3) Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

While Drake London may have been the first wide receiver selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, he currently ranks as the third most intriguing dynasty option among his peers. However, there is still plenty to be excited about when it comes to this young receiver. In his rookie season, London showcased his skills by converting an impressive 72 receptions on 117 targets, resulting in 866 receiving yards and four touchdowns. His 117 targets were the third-highest among rookie wide receivers, trailing only Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. With that said, he received the highest target market share of the three with 29.47%. Furthermore, he led his class in targets per route run, emphasizing his ability to consistently get open and make plays. With his promising performance and potential, London remains a compelling dynasty option worth considering.

Millennium Falcon

Despite leading all rookie wide receivers in target market share, Drake London ranked third in total targets last season. This statistical anomaly can be attributed to the offensive approach employed by Arthur Smith with the Atlanta Falcons. Last season, the Falcons ranked 31st in passing attempts while holding the top spot in rushing attempts. The already unfavorable situation could worsen with the addition of rookie sensation, Bijan Robinson. Tyler Allgeier had the 16th most rushing attempts (210) in the league last season, despite having a snap percentage average of 47.5%. If Robinson takes the field for the majority of snaps, it is conceivable that the team will rely even more heavily on the running game in the upcoming season.

Dynasty Outlook

For London to take a significant step forward in the upcoming season, it is crucial for Desmond Ridder to show notable improvement. The offensive approach and unpredictable quarterback play have been the limiting factors preventing London from achieving superstardom. Additionally, he will have to compete with Kyle Pitts for targets in an offense in which they are lacking. However, putting those challenges aside, London possesses the size and athletic profile reminiscent of a young Mike Evans. It is also essential to consider that both his quarterback and coaching situation have the potential to change at any moment. Given his exceptional athleticism and impressive production last season, London’s long-term dynasty outlook appears promising. The only concern is whether Arthur Smith’s run-heavy mindset will continue to hinder him from reaching his full potential.

4) Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders

Did someone order a year two breakout? Jahan Dotson is poised to build upon his remarkable rookie campaign and make waves this season. A defining characteristic that sets Dotson apart is his attainability compared to other highly touted young wide receivers. Despite flying somewhat under the radar, Dotson’s performance last season speaks volumes. He emerged as a force to be reckoned with, tying for the league lead in receiving touchdowns by a rookie (seven), ranking an impressive fourth in receiving yards per game (43.6), claiming the sixth spot in total receptions (35), and securing the fifth position in total receiving yards (523). These accomplishments become even more intriguing when considering that he only appeared in twelve games due to lingering injuries. Dotson is a hidden gem ready to shine even brighter in the upcoming season.

I am very high on Jahan Dotson heading into Year 2.

This is how he quietly ranked among all rookies last year:

-tied for 1st in touchdowns (7)

-4th in receiving yards per game (43.6)

-6th in receptions (35)

-and 5th in receiving yards (523)

He only played in 12 games.

— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) February 21, 2023

The Young Wolf

In 2023, the Washington Commanders will entrust Sam Howell with the role of starting quarterback. Despite his limited experience, Howell showcased immense potential and demonstrated his ability to perform at the professional level during a Week 18 triumph over the Dallas Cowboys last season. In this brief glimpse, the young quarterback admirably supported his top fantasy assets. Both Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin surpassed 70 receiving yards, highlighting Howell’s potential as he guided his team to an impressive victory. Howell has impressed his coaching staff enough to earn the starting job as QB1 to begin the season. It is worth noting that if Washington struggles out of the gate, the team may also consider starting experienced quarterback Jacoby Brissett. His veteran presence could provide Dotson and the rest of the offense with comparable fantasy upside.

Prepare for a significant shift in the offensive approach for the Washington Commanders in the upcoming season. With the arrival of Eric Bieniemy as the new offensive coordinator, the team is expected to undergo a major transformation. Bieniemy, renowned for his successful partnership with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, brings a wealth of experience and innovative strategies to Washington. While the offensive weapons may not possess the same level of intrigue as in his previous roles, it is reasonable to anticipate that Bieniemy will implement similar philosophies to maximize the team’s potential. This bodes extremely well for the fantasy outlook of Jahan Dotson and the rest of the team’s offense.

Dynasty Outlook

By acquiring the services of Jahan Dotson, you are valuing his talent above his present circumstances. Placing all your hopes on Sam Howell‘s transformation into Washington’s franchise quarterback is unnecessary and foolish. It is entirely possible that Dotson could be playing alongside Caleb Williams in 2024. Without attempting to predict the future, we can confidently affirm several certainties about Dotson as a player. He excels both on the outside and in the slot, showcasing an impressive catch radius for a player of his stature. There is a genuine chance he surpasses Terry McLaurin as the team’s primary target next season, establishing himself as an immensely valuable asset in fantasy football moving forward.

5) Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans

When talent and opportunity align, remarkable outcomes often unfold. For the majority of the offseason, it was more than respectable to state that the Tennessee Titans possessed the worst wide receiver room in the league. This development fueled major excitement for the potential opportunity that awaited Treylon Burks in the upcoming season. Although he underperformed in his rookie year, Burks seemed poised for improvement in his second professional season. However, this optimism took a sharp turn when the team signed the exceptional DeAndre Hopkins to a two-year contract. With Hopkins joining the team, he will undoubtedly become the clear WR1 and command a significant target share on a weekly basis. Additionally, the offense’s run-first approach through Derrick Henry will further limit the available targets. Last season, the Titans ranked 29th in the league, with a modest average of 26.8 passing attempts per game.

Lofty Expectations

Burks faced the formidable task of replacing A.J. Brown in the Tennessee Titans offense, which concluded with underwhelming results. He only managed to haul in 33 receptions for 444 receiving yards and a lone receiving touchdown. Without digging into underlying metrics, there were few reasons to be optimistic about his debut season. Additionally, Burks struggled with a mixed bag of injuries throughout the year, limiting him to just 11 games. On a positive note, he posted a respectable 21.8% target per route run rate and a solid 1.75 yards per route run average. These statistics suggest the potential for better days ahead for the young wide receiver. 

Despite being part of an offense with low passing volume, Burks stands to benefit from playing alongside veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill. While Tannehill was limited to just 12 games last season due to injury, he is a significant upgrade over quarterbacks like Joshua Dobbs and Malik Willis. DeAndre Hopkins has consistently demanded a significant target share throughout his illustrious career. In the previous season, he ranked fourth in the league with a commanding 29.4% target share. Despite this limiting his ceiling in 2023, Burks could potentially benefit from the opportunities created by playing alongside someone who demands so much defensive attention. He and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo will compete for the remaining targets in the offense, as Hopkins is expected to receive the lion’s share. Burks may also have a delayed start to the new season after suffering a knee injury in a joint practice with the Minnesota Vikings. Although there was luckily no structural damage found, his projected return to action is currently unknown. Any missed time would obviously be viewed as a negative for his 2023 fantasy outlook. 

Dynasty Outlook

Burks currently presents a compelling opportunity for acquisition at a unique discount. While he is expected to be part of one of the league’s weaker offenses, he has yet to turn 24 years old and has already displayed tremendous potential. However, his long-term dynasty outlook is clouded by the team’s recent selection of Will Levis as their expected quarterback of the future. It is not advisable to place your trust in a quarterback with peculiar habits, like eating bananas with the peel on or adding mayonnaise to coffee. Nevertheless, Burks possesses a rare combination of size, athleticism, and speed which is highly coveted in prospects at the position. His breakout season might be put on hold in 2023 now that Hopkins is in town, but Burks remains to be one of the most intriguing young wide receivers in the league.

6) Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

Jameson Williams‘ early professional career has been far from smooth, to say the least. Recovery from a torn ACL caused him to miss a significant portion of last season.  On top of this, he now faces a six-game suspension at the start of the 2023 season due to a violation of the league’s gambling policy. To make matters even worse, he recently suffered a hamstring injury during practice that held him out for the majority of the preseason. This means that the next time that he will be active on a football field will likely be Week 6 when his suspension concludes. Considering these circumstances, it would be unfair to rank him ahead of any of the previously mentioned players. However, it would be equally unjust to disregard his long-term dynasty potential.

Worth the Gamble?

Given the limited NFL data available on Jameson Williams, it is recommended to focus on his impressive collegiate production. Williams boasts electrifying long speed, making him a constant vertical threat. After struggling to make an impact amidst a crowded Ohio State receiver room, he took a bold step and transferred to the University of Alabama in 2021. It was with the Crimson Tide that he displayed his true potential. He finished the season with an impressive 79 receptions for a staggering 1,572 receiving yards and 15 receiving touchdowns. In a league where speed reigns supreme, Williams appeared to be poised to make an immediate impact in the NFL.

Dynasty Outlook

It is a rarity for a rookie who fails to make an impact in their debut season to achieve success in the NFL. However, Jameson Williams possesses the ideal combination of elite athleticism, draft pedigree, and a favorable landing spot that can enable him to defy the odds. While Williams has been sidelined, Amon-Ra St. Brown has emerged as the main attraction in the team’s offensive attack. Once Williams returns to action, it will be an exceedingly difficult task for him to surpass St. Brown as the team’s primary target. If acquired at a discount, the juice may be worth the squeeze to trade for Williams, but it is most definitely a calculated risk at this point in time.