Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: WAS -6.0
Total: 44.5
Team Totals: Commanders (25.3), Bears (19.3)
Game Outlook
Week 5 kicks off with a game that will probably feel like the most ‘Thursday Night Football’ game of all time. Sam Howell and the Commanders host a Bears team circling the drain after an 0-4 start. The Commanders are 6-point home favorites in this spot, though it is notable that this spread opened at 6.5, so we are seeing some early money on the Bears keeping it close. For showdown, that might make more balanced builds more appealing, especially if the spread starts to move closer to 5.5 or 5 – keep an eye on that.
The Commanders are throwing at a 60% rate when games are within one score (8th) while ranking 2nd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE). So long as this game stays close, we should project plenty of Sam Howell drop backs in this spot. It is notable, however, that their pass rate drops to 53% when playing with a lead of 7+ points. Granted, that’s a very, very small sample size as the ‘Manders have only been ahead by a TD for 15 plays this season. Still, in lineup builds where we expect Washington to handle their business at home, it makes sense to boost the outlook for their RBs.
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