Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: DET -1.5
Total: 46.0
Team Totals: Lions (23.5), Packers (22.5)
Game Outlook
Week 4 kicks off with an NFC North battle between Dan Campbell’s Lions and Matt LaFleur’s Packers at historic Lambeau Field. This line has ping ponged back and forth from a pick ’em to Detroit being favored by 1.5 as of this writing, a sign that this game is likely to be close. In games like this where it could be a close back and forth affair, we have many ways to attack the captain spot, which we’ll get to shortly.
Through three weeks, Detroit ranks 23rd in neutral situation pace while running a balanced offense. Their 52% neutral pass rate is the seventh-lowest in football and early in the year, the Lions’ offense ranks 30th in pass rate over expectation. Now, they get a spot on the road against a Packers defense that’s faced the NFL’s fifth-most rush attempts per game. If David Montgomery (Thigh) is able to return to the lineup, we should expect business as usual as long as this game stays close. It is worth noting, however, that in a small sample size this year when Detroit has fallen behind, OC Ben Johnson has called pass plays at a 71% rate. In scripts where we project the Packers to play well at home and get out to an early lead, it makes sense to boost Goff and his pass catchers.
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