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Defense Could be the Difference in an Epic Phillies/Braves Series

October 7, 2023
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There are a lot of people, both locally and nationally, who are revisiting their thoughts on the Phillies/Braves NLDS matchup that kicks off Saturday at 6 p.m.

I am one of them… but only partially. I’ll get to that part later.

But first, I want to point out that all the things that most people have either written about his matchup or talked about on TV, radio or on podcasts, while accurate, are just the meat and potatoes.

Yes, the Braves have the best offense, maybe ever. They hit a major-league record 307 home runs in the regular season, but that doesn’t always translate in the postseason. Ask the 2019 Twins, who share that record with them.

The Braves’ rotation has some question marks. Sure, Spencer Strider has dominated the Phillies in the regular season, but beyond that is Max Fried, coming back from a blister, which even during his rehab he threw with a Band-aid covering it, which is illegal in a real game. He also hasn’t pitched in a game since September 21st, meaning it’ll be two-and-a-half weeks without being built up, so he’s likely on a pitch count in Game 2. Then there’s the fact that Charlie Morton will miss the series, meaning Bryce Elder probably has to start Game 3.

Also, the Braves bullpen was leaking oil badly in September (5.61 ERA).

As for the Phillies, they’re rolling. They have a lot of confidence. They can hit with the Braves. Their top two pitchers – Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, could start three of the five games in the series. They have so many bullpen options that they can match up with every pocket of hitters the Braves throw at them.

All of this is good news.


But the Braves are that damn good. They’re also seeking revenge for losing to the Phillies in the playoffs last year. The revenge tour has been sparked by likely N.L. MVP Ronald Acuna, and they have dominated teams all season.

The one team they didn’t dominate was the Phillies. Yeah, there was that 11-4 game when Dylan Covey had to start on Sunday Night baseball against Spencer Strider back in May, and there was one game in Atlanta in September that went a little sideways (9-3). But every other game was a Phillies win or a close game that the Braves won.

That’s why this matchup now seems much closer now than maybe most people originally thought it would be.

Maybe the Braves impose their will and sweep the Phillies and we all just sulk away.

That’s probably unlikely. This series definitely should reach four games and has a high probability of going all five.

But if you’re looking for one other thing that can be a difference maker, one small detail that no one is talking about at all, it’s this –

That for as good as the Braves lineup is – and it’s freaking great – sometimes, they’ll still make outs on contact, and when they do make contact, if you can play solid defense, then you can take away some of their firepower.

Now, the Phillies aren’t considered a good defensive team. They made 92 errors, which was tied with the Cubs for ninth-most in the majors. But their defensive efficiency is .695, and that’s better than league average.

Defensive efficiency is the percentage of balls in play that are converted into outs. Only seven teams in all of baseball were higher than .700 with Milwaukee serving as the best (.719). The Braves, they rank tied for 19th at .685 – which is below league average (.691).

In another little-looked-at fielding stat, the Phillies were tied with Miami for the second-best good plays vs. misplays runs above average at plus-8. Atlanta is plus-2.

That’s a statistic measured by Baseball Info Solutions that runs the number of exceptional defensive plays against the number of defensive misreads by a team. Arizona was tops in the league at +10.

The Phillies are near the bottom in defensive runs saved at minus-27 as a team, but that’s basically just adding up individual totals and Kyle Schwarber alone was a minus-20. He’s not going to be playing the field. He’s the DH in the playoffs.

The Phillies still aren’t the greatest defensive team, but they are significantly better than last year, and the Braves are probably still better than them overall, but with the emergence of Johan Rojas in center creating a left field platoon between Brandon Marsh and Cristian Pache, and with Brsyon Stott playing at a Gold Glove level and Bryce Harper assimilating quickly to playing first base, the Phillies defensive weaknesses are far fewer.


Nick Castellanos still hasn’t made an error in two seasons as a Phillie, but he lacks great range. Alec Bohm is an average fielder at third, but he’s a vast improvement over a season ago. Only Trea Turner has been a mild disappointment defensively.

“It was hugely important to us,” manager Rob Thomson said. “I mean, it’s something we talked about all winter. Over the course of the last couple winters, we’ve gotten more athletic.”

Thomson mentioned catcher J.T. Realmuto and Stott. He added that Turner is also athletic, which he is, despite leading the league in errors. But then he also mentioned Marsh and Pache in left and Rojas in center, where his 14 defensive runs saved in just the second half of the season is an astronomical number.


But more than just the athleticism, the Phillies worked on individual defensive drills ad nauseam.

“We attacked in practice getting better jumps, glove action, creating better hops in the infield, things like that,” Thomson said. “We have put a major emphasis on (defense) and it’s coming to fruition. The work Bobby Dickerson and Paco Figueroa and Dusty Wathan have done with our position players has just been fantastic.”

The players have embraced it, too. Being a better defensive team takes a little pressure of the pitchers. They don’t feel as worried about pitching to contact as they would have even a season ago.

“Bobby and Paco take a lot of pride in that,” said Bohm, who has improved defensively at both third base and first base this season. “And we work too. You see guys out there early every day. There’s not been many days where we missed and we go out there and work as a group. I feel like it’s kind of brought us together too. There’s a lot of pride in our defense here.”


As there should be. Make strides the way they have, and it can be a difference maker in a tight series.

Speaking of which, I promised you I would get to the part about me being a partial flip-flopper.

It’s true, I admit. I’ve changed my pick. It took me all of four days to do it. But I’ve also been consistent all season saying if there is any team in baseball who can beat the Braves in the playoffs, it’s the Phillies. They were built for this very series.

I’ve since added to that belief. I said on Crossed Up on Monday that whoever wins this series will win the World Series. I do truly believe that.

Monday, I picked the Braves in Five. On Thursday, I flipped to the Phillies.

I flipped because of all the advantages that everyone else has been talking about, but also because of what they aren’t talking about, and that’s the Phillies being better defensively now than they were when they beat the Braves a season ago.

The post Defense Could be the Difference in an Epic Phillies/Braves Series appeared first on Crossing Broad.

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