Bucs vs. Saints: Pewter Predictions For Week 17

BUCS vs. SAINTS

WHEN: Sunday, December 31, 2023 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Kevin Burkhardt | ANALYST: Greg Olsen | SIDELINE: Erin Andrews & Tom Rinaldi

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Todd Bowles’ Mastery Over The Saints Continues

I don’t know why Todd Bowles has done something that few Bucs head coaches have done, which is to have complete mastery over the New Orleans Saints. Bowles is 3-0 versus New Orleans and has the chance to sweep the Saints for a second straight year with a win on Sunday. Of course, doing so means two things.

First, it means winning a third straight NFC South championship. Second, it means that Saints head coach Dennis Allen likely gets fired after two seasons and New Orleans goes into a rebuild mode. The Saints are an old team, especially on defense and I expect New Orleans to take a big step back in 2024 before it has a chance to take a step forward.

The Bucs have some real momentum on their side with four straight wins, including three straight victories with 27 points or more scored by the offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is hot, and so is running back Rachaad White. But wide receiver Mike Evans is even hotter right now. Without Marshon Lattimore in the game I think Evans has a field day and scores two touchdowns to help Tampa Bay’s offense score 30 points again.

Defensively, Todd Bowles is on a roll and his young defensive line is applying more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. YaYa Diaby continues to play well and takes advantage of the knee injury to New Orleans right tackle Ryan Ramczyk to continue to pile up the sacks.

The Saints play the Bucs better at Raymond James Stadium than they do in New Orleans for some reason. That’s why the game will be closer than some think. But Tampa Bay has more momentum and the home crowd on its side as the Bucs improve to 9-7.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Saints 24
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 10-5

Matt Matera: It’ll Be Tight, But The Bucs Win

There’s been so much to enjoy about the Bucs’ four game winning streak. Baker Mayfield has balled out, Mike Evans continues to put up historic numbers, Chris Godwin got back on track and Rachaad White has proved to be a number one running back.

Defensively, Antoine Winfield Jr. is playing like the defensive player of the year, turnovers are coming in droves, and YaYa Diaby should be defensive rookie of the year. Diaby, along with fellow rookie Calijah Kancey, are generating tons of excitement over the future of this team. 

I’m not discrediting any of the success that the Bucs have had as of late and this is not an indictment of their performance. What I do think, though, is that the Saints are going to come into this game desperate with their season on the line. Does it mean they’ll play their best football? I think at least for a bit of time they give the Bucs trouble, and for whatever reason they’ve played better in Tampa against the Bucs lately than in New Orleans. 

A big focus for the Bucs has to be on limiting wide receiver Chris Olave. He’s their best player on offense and has even found success with the struggles of quarterback Derek Carr. The Bucs did a great job in their first matchup limiting Olave to one catch for four yards. It’ll be up to Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum to do it again. 

Not much needs to be different for the Bucs offense. Mayfield is rolling, so let him roll. As long as the Bucs don’t turn the ball over, I don’t see why Tampa Bay’s unit can’t reach 30 again for the third week in a row. The pass blocking needs to improve a bit, but the Bucs can still get by with what they’ve done as of late. The Saints won’t go down easy, but the Bucs have all the momentum and a big reason to finish the job in this game.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Saints 27
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 9-6

Bailey Adams: Bucs Keep Rolling Into The New Year

It’s hard to pick against these Bucs right now, isn’t it?

Dave Canales’ offense is humming, with Baker Mayfield playing some of the best football of his career over the last couple of weeks. Mike Evans is continuing to do Mike Evans things on his way to one of the best years of his career, Chris Godwin has bounced back recently and Rachaad White has turned into a dynamic multi-purpose back. Not to mention, the Bucs offensive line is playing extremely well.

Pair all of that with an opportunistic defense that is getting breakout performances from Yaya Diaby and Calijah Kancey along with the dominant play of Antoine Winfield Jr. and the always dependable Lavonte David, and you get this four-game winning streak that the Bucs are on.

Tampa Bay is simply playing with a confidence and swagger that it didn’t have even a month ago. This team knows how close it is to three-peating as division champions, and it wants to get the job done against Derek Carr and the Saints, leaving nothing up to chance in Week 18.

The Bucs have the recipe for beating the Saints, as they did it handily in Week 4. I like Mayfield to have another big day, plus the emergence of White gives New Orleans another element to deal with that it didn’t see last time.

The defense needs to pressure Carr and eliminate Alvin Kamara as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield, much like it did when he caught 13 passes for just 33 yards in Week 4. From there, the key is to just not let Chris Olave beat you.

I think Tampa Bay will be up to the task on New Year’s Eve as it clinches the division, gets Todd Bowles to 4-0 against the Saints and sets up the opportunity for a 10th win next week in one final tune-up before the playoffs.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Saints 21
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 8-7

Josh Queipo: Bucs Dominate Divisional Rival

I will say I didn’t see a four-game win streak on the docket for this Bucs squad. So, it feels weird to predict they will extend it to five games. But there are a lot of underlying markers that are working in Tampa Bay’s favor at the right time of the season. Three big factors are driving my prediction.

First, the offense is clicking. Over the past five games the Bucs rank ninth in the NFL in EPA/play. This is driven by two things. 1) The run game has moved from abysmal to passable and 2) the passing game is one of the five best in the NFL of late. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ concepts are hitting, and quarterback Baker Mayfield is feeling confident in executing them.

Secondly, head coach Todd Bowles is getting more aggressive with his in-game management. Combine this with a kicker that can hit from 50 yards and the team is maximizing its scoring opportunities in a way it couldn’t dream of in 2022. Facing an opposing head coach in Dennis Allen who does not trust his offense to execute on fourth down means the Bucs can win at the margins.

Lastly, the Bucs are just extremely healthy right now. And that is far from the case with New Orleans. The only starters who have not practiced all week are outside linebacker Shaq Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis III. OLB and CB are the two deeper positions on the team. With Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Zyon McCollum in the wings with plenty of experience operating in the starting lineup the drop-off from those two is softened quite a bit.

On the other side of the matchup the Saints’ injury report looks like the yellow pages (for those of you born after 1995 – Google it).

The Bucs defense should limit a schizophrenic Saints offense while Tampa Bay’s offense puts up a similar number of points to the 28.5 they have been averaging of late.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Saints 19
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 10-5

Adam Slivon: Bucs Cap Off Year On High Note By Beating Saints

The Bucs have a lot on the line this Sunday, from winning the NFC South for a third year in the row while also continuing to reverse their fortunes against the Saints. Coming into their regular season home finale, they couldn’t be facing their bitter rival at a better time. Tampa Bay has won four in a row, the last two rather convincingly.

New Orleans is playing for its own playoff spot, making this quite a high-stakes matchup. The Saints are coming off a 30-22 loss to the Rams, and they are a team with its own question marks. The Saints’ only three wins since November 1st have been against the Bears, Panthers, and Giants. Not exactly the most convincing list.

The offense under Derek Carr has been underwhelming when on the field, and New Orleans’ only real weapons are Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and to a lesser extent, Rashid Shaheed. If it is anything like Week 4 and the Bucs lock each of them up, it will be hard for the Saints to score.

On the flip side, I expect the Bucs offense to take advantage of a unit primed to miss Marshon Lattimore. With that absence, expect a full game out of Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield has looked like a different quarterback as of late. One that’s comfortable and has had no problem leading the offense. The first time these teams faced off, it was one of his and the offense’s better games until their recent run.

On Sunday, I expect more of the same. Tampa Bay has shown a newfound ability to put points up, and if the Saints’ playmakers can be neutralized enough, the Bucs should be able to wrap up the division and start their preparation for a playoff run.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Saints 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 11-4