Bucs Three-Year Outlook: RB

While all eyes are set on the 2023 season, Pewter Report is taking a look at the Bucs in 2023 and into the future. Going position by position, we’ll provide a three-year outlook to get an idea of what the 2024 and 2025 Bucs might look like — and how 2023 may impact those future teams.

Quarterbacks

Today, we continue with the running backs.

Bucs Running Back Contracts

Bucs RB KeShawn Vaughn – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s backfield is far from locked in for the future. Rachaad White is the only one with years remaining on his contract after 2023, as he was drafted in 2022 and his rookie deal runs through 2025. He’ll get his first chance to be a true No. 1 back this year, and what he does with that chance will go a long way in determining the outlook for the rest of the backfield going forward.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a 2020 draft pick, is in a contract year. To this point, he has been nothing more than a No. 3 or No. 4 back, but his role may increase in 2023.

The Bucs went out and signed Chase Edmonds in free agency back in March, inking him to a one-year deal. The team will hope he can stay healthy and contribute this season, but he’s going to be 28 next offseason so there’s not much of a path for him to be a long-term option for Tampa Bay in anything other than a depth/change-of-pace role. Patrick Laird, the current RB4, is also a free agent after 2024 — and he’s no lock to make the 53-man roster out of training camp.

Sean Tucker and Ronnie Brown are two undrafted free agents who offer intriguing upsides, but neither are locks to make the 2023 roster either. Because of that, it’s hard to say they’re established in the team’s three-year plans.

How This Year Impacts 2024 & 2025

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The biggest answer the Bucs will be looking for at the running back position in 2023 is whether or not White is a true No. 1 back. He flashed in spurts during his rookie season, finishing with 481 yards and a touchdown on 129 carries, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. He added 50 catches for 290 yards (5.8 avg.) and two touchdowns as a receiver as well.

With Leonard Fournette gone, White is the clear starting running back in Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs expect their run game to improve under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and frankly anything would be an improvement over the team’s league-worst rushing attack last year.

If White breaks out in 2023 and proves capable of being the team’s unquestioned starter, he’ll clear up the backfield picture for 2024 and 2025. The team would have a starting-caliber back and while it could look for another high-end runner to form a nice 1-2 punch with its 2022 draft pick, the only real need would be complementary running mates to round out the backfield.

Vaughn and Edmonds figure to be gone after 2023, unless one of them makes enough of a case this season to be retained next offseason. Given Vaughn’s lack of opportunities so far in his career, he may want a change of scenery unless something drastic changes this year. He’ll see the field more, but what he does with his carries will set up the next phase of his career, whether it’s in Tampa or elsewhere. Whether or not Edmonds stays healthy will determine what his 2023 looks like. If he can stay on the field and produce, he may carve out a spot on the roster for more than just a year.

Tucker is an interesting one to watch. A heart condition detected during the pre-draft process prevented him from being drafted, but the former Syracuse star has a lot of potential. With his condition reportedly expected to clear up in the coming months, he may be a candidate to break out alongside White and give the Bucs a bright young 1-2 punch to rely on for the next couple of years.

Three-Year Outlook: Bucs Running Backs

Bucs RBs Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

A lot of this depends on White. If he doesn’t look the part of a legitimate No. 1 back, the Bucs may be in the market for another starting-caliber option next year. That’s not to say White will fall out of the team’s plans completely, but there’s a reality where he’s not the type of guy Tampa Bay can give the ball to 200-plus times and will need a complement.

The outlook for the rest of the backfield looks murky beyond 2023. Perhaps Vaughn establishes himself as a trustworthy and productive No. 2 this year and Bucs decision-makers think he’s worth re-signing next offseason. Maybe he goes elsewhere and Edmonds sticks around for 2024 in a No. 3 type of role. In a way, Edmonds may have more of a chance of being retained next year as a reliable veteran presence. Think Giovani Bernard, though the team will hope to get more out of him. By 2025, though, it’s highly unlikely he’ll still be on the roster.

The only way this group as it’s constructed now should completely stick together is if it brings Tampa Bay’s rushing attack from last in the league to a dramatically better ranking this fall.

Tucker is the wild card. If his heart condition isn’t a problem that persists, he could prove to be a real undrafted free agent gem for the Bucs. He ran for 2,556 yards and 23 touchdowns over his final two years with Syracuse and even though he has yet to practice, some around the team facility have given him a pretty complimentary nickname/comparison: “Baby Nick Chubb.”

Three-Year Outlook Summary

There doesn’t figure to be much that Rachaad White can do this season that would rule him out of the Bucs’ future, but how he performs in 2023 will give the team a clearer picture as to how it needs to build out the rest of the backfield in 2024 and 2025. In the event that White and another running back — whether it’s Vaughn or Tucker — combine to bring Tampa Bay’s rushing attack from the bottom of the league to near the top, the Bucs would be pretty content to go into the future with two solid backs.