Bucs Are Hedging Their Bets With Shaq Barrett

In 2019 the Bucs found a diamond in the rough in free agency. Taking a flier on an unproven but promising pass rusher, they gave former undrafted free agent Shaq Barrett a one-year, prove-it contract worth $4 million.

Barrett was given the opportunity to earn a starting role that was never afforded to him in his four years in Denver previously. And Barrett provided the Bucs with a historical return on investment. His 58 tackles, league-leading 19.5 sacks, six forced fumbles, and 82 pressures made up one of the best defensive seasons in team history.

With that performance, Barrett earned a one-year pay day in the form of a franchise tag that the Bucs placed on him. While the team was overjoyed at his 2019 performance, they were also cautious at making sure he could continue as a high-end pass rusher. And so Barrett once again went to work in 2020 on a prove-it deal of sorts. The $15,828,000 salary he earned that year made him one of the highest paid players at his position but did not afford him the long-term security he desired.

Still, Barrett produced once again in helping the Bucs to their second Super Bowl. While his sack production was a much more modest number (eight), he remained consistent in his ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, logging 77 pressures in his second year in Tampa Bay. He also totaled four sacks in the postseason, including one and multiple pressures in Super Bowl LV.

The Bucs front office entered the 2021 offseason with three choices. Give Barrett the long-term deal he was seeking, tag him again for an almost $19 million cap hit, or let him walk without having a good option to replace him as OLB1. The team opted for plan A as they signed Barrett to a four-year, $68 million pact.

Where The Bucs And Shaq Barrett Stand Now

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The inaugural season of Barrett’s mega-deal went reasonably well enough. He returned to the double-digit sack club (10) and the Pro Bowl while maintaining his pressure rate (75). However, in 2022 Barrett got off to a slow start, recording just 22 pressures and three sacks through seven games.

Then in week eight Barrett would suffer a torn Achilles that would end his season. The Bucs would struggle to replicate Barrett’s effectiveness over the prior three years and their defense struggled down the stretch run of the season on their way to a losing record and an early playoff exit.

At age 30, Barrett now faces a tough road to recovery, and he is not guaranteed to be back to open the season, let alone be effective. A study published in 2018 to Foot and Ankle International found that 28% of players who suffered a torn Achilles did not resume their careers. Of those who did the study found the mean return time was 339.8 days after the surgery was performed.

While I can’t find the exact date of Barrett’s surgery, using the earliest date he could have gotten it (the day after the game he suffered the injury – 10/28/22) that would put him back on October 2nd. Barrett could be back before that, but his effectiveness should be in question. That same study also found that linebackers saw significant decreases in their performance vs. both their pre-surgery performance as well as controls.

How The Bucs Are Handling The Barrett Injury

Releasing Barrett was never a viable option for the Bucs from a salary cap standpoint, even if they didn’t believe he would be effective in 2023. While there is no guaranteed money in his $14,250,000 salary in 2023, if they did choose to let the veteran go they would accelerate the $16.2 million in prorated charges due between 2024 and 2025. That money, combined with the $6.65 million in prorated cap charges this year would have left the team on the hook for a $22.85 million dead cap charge. That dead cap hit would eclipse the cap charge they have in keeping Barrett.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Now while the release was not a likely option, the Bucs did make a conscience decision with regards to his contract that gives them an escape hatch next year if they so choose.

The Bucs faced considerable cap constraints this year. They could have converted a large chunk of Barrett’s salary into a prorated bonus to save cap room in 2023. In choosing not to, the Bucs saved themselves from increasing the dead cap charge in 2024. If Barrett does not show enough to be worth $16.25 million salary next year the Bucs can release him and save just under $7.5 million in salary cap.

On top of that, the Bucs have shown considerable interest in several pass rushers throughout the 2023 draft cycle. Head coach Todd Bowles attended Kansas State’s pro day recently where he was able to watch edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah up close.

Additionally, the Bucs have hosted Nolan Smith of Georgia and B.J. Ojulari from LSU on Top 30 visits. All three of those players would represent major investments if the Bucs were to draft them based on popular draft consensus. All three are ranked in the Top 50 of Arif Hasan’s consensus big board for Pro Football Network, which is a composite of 25 different draft analyst’s opinions on this year’s draft class.

Between the interest in young, premier, Day 1/Day 2 edge rushers, and the decision to not push Barrett’s salary cap hits forward, the Bucs are clearly hedging their bets on his ability to return to his pre-surgery high level of play. Based on these indicators this very well could be Barrett’s last year in pewter and red unless he makes a miraculous comeback from his torn Achilles.