Bucs 3-Year Outlook: S

While all eyes are set on the 2023 season, Pewter Report is taking a look at the Bucs in 2023 and into the future. Going position by position, we’ll provide a three-year outlook to get an idea of what the 2024 and 2025 Bucs might look like — and how 2023 may impact those future teams.

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Offensive Line
Defensive Line
Outside Linebackers
Inside Linebackers
Cornerbacks

Today, we finish up with the safeties.

Bucs Safety Contracts

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

There’s at least one man in the Bucs’ safety room who is due to receive a big new contract next offseason. That would be Antoine Winfield Jr., who is in a contract year in 2023 and will surely be someone who Tampa Bay looks to sign to an extension — whether that comes next offseason or some time before.

The 2020 second-round pick burst onto the scene as a rookie and helped the Bucs win Super Bowl LV, then he earned his first Pro Bowl selection in 2021. He split time between nickel cornerback and safety during the 2022 season and while he held up okay in the slot, Todd Bowles is wisely planning to move him back to being primarily a safety this season. That should give him a chance to make more plays on the ball, which could help him inflate that second contract a little bit — especially considering the Bucs are a team that can struggle to force turnovers.

The other safety manning the back end of Tampa Bay’s defense who could set himself up for a big cash-in next offseason is Ryan Neal. Unexpectedly made available by the Seahawks this offseason, 2022’s top-graded safety in the league (per PFF) landed with the Bucs on a one-year deal in April.

Neal stepped into Seattle’s starting lineup last year due to injury and played extremely well. After Week 5, he didn’t allow a touchdown and gave up just a 54.3% completion percentage as the primary coverage guy on 35 targets (per PFF). His coverage grade 85.7 was the second-best of any safety as he brought in an interception and totaled eight passes defenses to go with 66 tackles, four tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble.

Neal will pair exceptionally well with Winfield, and if both stay healthy, there’s a realistic chance the Bucs end up fielding one of the better safety duos in the league this year.

Beyond Winfield and Neal, the Bucs will be relying on quite a few undrafted free agents in hopes that someone will step up and stick on the roster in the longer term. Christian Izien, Kaevon Merriweather and Kedrick Whitehead are promising newcomers this year, while Nolan Turner — an undrafted free agent last year — will look to build on what he did last training camp and preseason.

How This Year Impacts 2024 & 2025

Bucs S Ryan Neal – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

This year will solidify what the Bucs’ starting safety duo will look like in 2024 and beyond. Winfield appears to be a lock for the future, so his play this year is likely to determine just how much money he makes and what the overall length and terms will look like for the deal.

Where there’s less clarity is with Neal. A really good season — one on par with what he did last year in Seattle — would presumably set him up for a big multi-year deal next March. Would that be with Tampa Bay? The Bucs will be in a better cap situation next year and if he’s had a successful year in Todd Bowles’ defense — a defense he is excited to be a part of and thrive in — perhaps he’s back to pair with Winfield for the foreseeable future.

But if he prices himself out of Tampa, the Bucs will then be in search of a long-term answer to play alongside Winfield. The same can obviously be said if he doesn’t play well and isn’t worth bringing back in 2024 (though that feels like a less likely scenario). If he isn’t back after this season, perhaps one of those talented undrafted free agents proves worthy to replace him, or maybe Tampa Bay has to look long and hard at safety next year in the draft.

Whether one of the undrafted free agents gets enough opportunity to establish themselves in 2023 is up in the air, too. While there’s an intriguing young group behind Winfield and Neal, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bucs add a veteran safety on a cheap deal before the season begins. Logan Ryan returning for another year could make a lot of sense, as he knows the defense and looked good playing in it last year when healthy.

While signing Ryan or another veteran to shore up their safety depth this season wouldn’t impact the Bucs’ future directly, it would limit the chances of Izien, Merriweather, Whitehead and/or Turner to cement themselves as part of the team’s future. Then again, the team likely only makes that addition if it doesn’t see enough out of any of the newcomers in the early part of training camp and the preseason.

Three-Year Outlook: Bucs Safeties

Bucs S Kaevon Merriweather – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

All throughout this breakdown of the three-year outlook at safety, we’ve operated under the assumption that Winfield will be re-signed to a second contract in Tampa Bay. (That feels like a safe assumption, but in the event that he isn’t, the outlook obviously becomes as simple as “the Bucs will need a high-end safety through free agency or the draft next offseason). So, once the soon-to-be 25-year-old gets his new deal, the question becomes about who will play alongside him for the duration of that contract.

In an ideal world, Neal will star this season and he and Winfield will be one of the NFL’s most formidable safety tandems. And in that ideal world, the Bucs would be able to ink both of them to new contracts next offseason to ensure that they play together for the next few years. It would then be as simple as building depth behind them, both to guard against injury and for the sake of being able to rotate.

But in the event that it’s only Winfield back in red, white and pewter next year and Neal finds a new home elsewhere, the outlook for Tampa Bay looks less clear. The team would likely need to draft a safety early in next year’s draft, unless someone like Izien, Merriweather or Whitehead looks the part of a reliable NFL starter. One of those guys (or multiple) proving to be undrafted free agent gems would be a huge help for the Bucs, as they’d have one pressing need crossed off their list for next spring.

Three-Year Outlook Summary

In 2024 and 2025, Winfield is likely to be patrolling the back end of the Bucs’ defense. But who will join him? It could be Neal, Izien, Merriweather or Turner, but it may very well be a new draft pick next year or the year after that.

What happens at nickel could play a role, too, as any troubles from rookie Josh Hayes or Dee Delaney this year could force Winfield or Neal into the slot more. And if that’s the case, one of the young guys may see more of the field in 2023 than anticipated. Whatever happens, the objective should be clear: lock Winfield in for the future and find his long-term partner at the position.