Best NHL prop bets for today, 4/21: Matthew Tkachuk takes his shots

We’re heading into our first weekend of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, which means the first set of games are switching venues. Wednesday saw each series get tied up 1-1 except for the Carolina Hurricanes escaping overtime with a 2-0 lead over the New York Islanders. However, even that game is listed as a pick ‘em for tonight’s action. With such tight battles, you may not feel as confident predicting winners. If that’s the case, I have you covered with our NHL player props. We have been off to a strong start throughout this first week and plan on keeping it going.

Along with our player props, be sure to check out all of our NHL picks for today’s action.

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Matthew Tkachuk, FLA, Over 3.5 shots on goal (-130)

The NHL-best Boston Bruins were shocked on Wednesday night–and on home ice, no less. Now they have to head down to South Beach to try and bounce back. That’s not to say the Florida Panthers aren’t a great team in their own right, but a 6-3 victory isn’t something they were expected to pull off on the road. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers beat the Bruins twice in the regular season, with both of those games coming in Florida. Rather than sweating out another victory, I’m only worried about a specific skater: Matthew Tkachuk. He has come through for us time and time again this season, and teammate Aleksandar Barkov delivered on Wednesday night. 

Tonight’s game being in Florida also plays a factor in being willing to back a shots-on-goal prop. Stat keepers have been wildly inconsistent with this market this season, but that should work in our favor tonight. Florida’s stat keepers have become notorious for being very generous when it comes to recorded shots on goal for Panthers skaters. For example, Tkachuk has hit over this line in 17 of his last 25 home games. Meanwhile, it has hit in just 10 of his last 25 away games. While that’s quite the discrepancy, that’s not all I’m leaning on. Tkachuk’s 322 shots were the 7th most in the entire NHL. Therefore I’m comfortable paying the price for his shots on goal prop tonight. 

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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM, Over 0.5 assists (-140)

I’m following up a superstar in Tkachuk with a bit of a lesser-known skater. However, Nugent-Hopkins shouldn’t be overlooked. He just had a career year with 104 points, which was tied for the 7th most in the NHL. In fact, it was just 5 points fewer than Tkachuk. It’s easy to get overshadowed when you’re on a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but he deserves some recognition. Of those 104 points, 67 were assists. 

While McDavid and Draisaitl may overshadow him, they also provide him with elite goal-scorers to whom he can dish out assists. That was on full display throughout the year, especially down the home stretch. Nugent-Hopkins recorded at least 1 assist in 5 of the Oilers’ 6 games in April. Similarly, he had a stretch in March with at least 1 assist in 8 of 10 games–with 13 overall. One of those April matchups came not only against the Kings, but also in Los Angeles. That’s where Edmonton will be tonight as it looks to take a 2-1 series lead. Nugent-Hopkins had an assist in Game 1 and I anticipate him recording another one on Friday night.

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