Best Ball: ADP Fades & Opportunity Cost (Fantasy Football)

Best Ball is all about opportunity cost.

• • What am I giving up at this spot in my drafts?
  • What does this player have to do in order to pay off at their ADP?
  • Is this player’s production replaceable?

On last week’s Best Ball Breakdown, the Fantasy Footballers shared a number of players they refuse to draft at their current Best Ball ADP.

While having a portfolio approach is key, taking stances versus the field in tournaments gives you the leverage you need. Here are some players the Ballers are fading at their current ADPs on Underdog.

Editor’s Note: The Ultimate Draft Kit+ is packed with BestBall content including up-to-date rankings and a Best Ball Primer.

Andy – DeVonta Smith (21.4 /WR13) 

Andy claimed his answer was somewhat offensive. WR13 wasn’t as egregious as 21st overall considering the RBs on the board. Despite WRs going earlier than ever in BestBall this year, taking him ahead of names like Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs is tough to stomach. Per our Best Ball Primer, “the Eagles are the only team with five players going inside the first six rounds of drafts so there is little room for error. A Jalen Hurts/Smith stack at the 2/3 turn needs to run pure and outperform last year’s stats. For reference, that type of stack must hit 19+ percent advance rate at minimum with Hurts + Brown needing to be closer to 25+ percent.” Andy recently laid out the bull case for D.K. Metcalf, a player he has ranked higher than Smith that you can get 6+ picks later.

Jason – Deebo Samuel  (34/WR17) / TJ Hockenson (49/TE3) / Travis Kelce (5/TE1)

Jason begins by prefacing this segment saying he’s never really been a “Deebo lover”. He was outscored by Brandon Aiyuk on a per game basis last year, who is going a couple of rounds after him. Jason’s biggest beef is some of the draft cost of certain TEs. Kelce at the 1.05 is such a high cost considering how all-in he is with Mark Andrews two rounds later. Hockenson is an example of a TE that is not worth taking as difference-maker. In a recent article about Best Ball arbitrage, I wrote about finding Hockenson-type players later in drafts. Betz and I extensively discussed Hockenson as one of our biggest fades of the year. His TE2 season last year was a bit deceptive relative to the field and apart from two blow-up games, he wasn’t a must have player in Best Ball. His ADP is out of control as someone near the 4/5 turn. He’s a high floor TE that needs 7+ TDs to truly reach a fantasy ceiling, a total he’s never hit in his career. Take the discount for players that have arguably the same ceiling (or higher) than Hock.

Mike – D’Andre Swift (RB21/75th) – DJ Moore (WR26/48th)

Beyond a personal vendetta against Swift, Mike shared why Swift at RB21 is a bit of a bold stance by the drafting community. The market is saying he is the most important RB on the Eagles. However, Swift isn’t a guarantee to end up with the most points in this backfield. If this is the depth chart they have moving into the season, returning RB21 value is questionable. Swift still profiles as one of the league’s best pass-catchers, but the Eagles might use more of a committee approach than fantasy managers might like. He’s more of a fringe RB3 than someone you can count on from the get-go. Moore’s ADP has cooled off recently but the passing attempts for the Bears and the play volume is too low to sustain production. He would need a big play every couple of games to justify where he is going. Justin Fields is always a threat to scramble which takes away from the already low volume. Moore is a fantastic player but his situation is so brutal to expect him to pay off in the first four rounds of a draft.

Other Names Mentioned:

Bijan Robinson– RB2/ 9th overall

Jonathan Taylor– RB4/16th overall

Jaxon Smith-Njigba– WR31/60th overall

Dalton Kincaid– TE11/124th overall