Artifootball Intelligence: Using AI to Find the Best Redraft Strategies (Fantasy Football)

As the use of artificial intelligence explodes worldwide, I have started to think of how I can apply its incredible capabilities to fantasy football. One of the most straightforward ways is using it to create draft bots. We’ve seen this simple application of AI in fantasy football for many years through auto-draft, where players can opt out of their fantasy drafts and allow the computer to make player selections for them.

In a similar fashion, I have programmed 10 AI draft bots, all with varying strategies, and have simulated 1,000 drafts (randomizing the order each time) in order to determine which draft strategies are the most successful. The main difference between each bot is the timing at which they select their first TE and QB. This project was done in preparation for the 2023 season–some of the results will be more specific to the current talent in the NFL.

Let’s take a look at the bots! For reference, the ‘best player’ available is determined by whichever player put up more points per game in the 2022 season.

AI Bot Strategies

AI Bot One:

• Drafts first QB in Round 4
• Drafts first TE in Round 6
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best overall player in Rounds 13-15

AI Bot Two:

• Drafts first QB in Round 5
• Drafts first TE in Round 6
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best overall player in Rounds 13-15

AI Bot Three:

• Drafts first QB in Round 4
• Drafts first TE in Round 9
• Best available non-QB/TE otherwise

AI Bot Four:

• Drafts first QB in Round 3
• Drafts first TE in Round 7
• Drafts second TE in Round 8
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best overall player in Rounds 13-15

AI Bot Five:

• Drafts first QB in Round 14
• Drafts first TE in Round 4
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best overall player in Rounds 13-15

AI Bot Six:

• Drafts first QB in Round 8
• Drafts first TE in Round 4
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best overall player in Rounds 13-14
• Drafts the best available QB in Round 15

AI Bot Seven:

• Drafts first QB in Round 9
• Drafts first TE in Round 1
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best overall player in Rounds 13-14
• Drafts best available QB in Round 15

AI Bot Eight:

• Drafts first QB in Round 5
• Drafts first TE in Round 9
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best available QB and TE in Rounds 14 and 15

AI Bot Nine:

• Drafts first QB in Round 1
• Drafts first TE in Round 6
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best available QB and TE in Rounds 14 and 15

AI Bot Ten:

• Drafts first QB in Round 1
• Drafts first TE in Round 13
• Drafts the best non-QB/TE otherwise
• Drafts the best available QB and TE in Rounds 14 and 15

The Results

I plotted the distributions of the total starter points for each strategy below for Bots 1-5 and 6-10, respectively. Immediately, Bots 1, 4, 6, and 9 stand out, gaining around 4-5 more points per game on average from starters.

Replotting these four standouts together, let’s re-summarize what each of their strategies is.

• AI Bot 1 (Blue): Early-mid round QB & mid-round TE
• AI Bot 4 (Brown): Early-round QB & mid-round TE
• AI Bot 6 (Green): Mid-round QB & early-round TE
• AI Bot 9 (Red): First-round QB & Mid-round TE

You’ll notice that the best-performing strategies mostly feature mid-round selections of QBs and TEs. While there are fewer strong options at the TE and QB positions, the gap between the top and bottom is much closer than those at the RB and WR positions. This is why it is generally important to load up the talent in those departments first.

However, you can still succeed by selecting a QB or TE early–the gap between strategies is fairly small, especially at the top. As seen with Bot 9, the strategy of selecting a QB in the first round only averages about three points less than the top strategy (Bot 4). The same can be said about drafting a TE in the first round (Bot 7)–this strategy only averages about four points less than the top strategy from its starters! It is important to note, however, that both strategies that draft a QB or TE first select the other in a mid to late round. When I adjusted the AIs to draft both a QB and TE in the first two rounds, the average total points from starters fell below 100.

Lastly, I plotted the distribution of points per game from all players on each drafted team–the results are much different. AI Bots 7, 8, 9, and 10 average over 10 points per game more from their entire team than the rest of the pack. What is different about these four strategies? They all draft a TE or QB in the first round and/or prioritize grabbing backup QBs and TEs in later rounds. This goes to show that these strategies could be stronger in producing deeper teams and that a late-round QB or TE tends to be more valuable than a late-round RB or WR.

Conclusion

All in all, it is smart to save your selection of QBs & TEs until the middle of the draft, between picks four through nine. However, while it’s typically smarter to hold off during redrafts on taking these players, last season a few QBs and TEs performed incredibly well, making their fantasy worth unprecedently high. This means drafting them early on could pay off if you are able to get the top guys (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Kelce). Be careful, however, as we saw targeting both power positions early on was detrimental in the simulations.