Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 15

I said this last week to start the article and I will restate it because I feel strongly about it. Tyreek Hill should be the MVP this year. We got to see Tua play QB on Monday for two-ish quarters without Tyreek Hill and the Miami offense looked pedestrian. Tyreek came back in and immediately they moved the ball right down to the red zone. I am not sure there is a better case for Tyreek than that hour in time on Monday. There is not much else I will say about it, but I do think he deserves his roses for an amazing year. I will divert from the subject now though and get to why we are here. Time to take a look at our advanced statistics again this week by looking at aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an update to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score).

Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Overperformer: Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)

aDOT: 6.2 yards
Result: 7 receptions, 72 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 16.7 (half-PPR)

Rashee has been having a great rookie season thus far and has already established himself as the number-one receiver for Mahomes. He has been bringing in contested catches, looks explosive after the catch, and he lines up onside! Travis Kelce of course remains Patrick Mahomes favorite target, but Rice has quickly gained his trust. No stat proves this more than his snap rate finally eclipsing the 80% mark, and Mahomes targeting him 10 times on Sunday. His aDOT has been low with a lot of screens and quick game work, but he has made the most of those targets. Rice still has the potential to be a league winner down the stretch.

Underperformer: Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals)

aDOT: 16.5 yards
Result: 2 receptions, 72 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.2 (half-PPR)

Can Jake Browning take the Bengals on a magical Nick Foles-type run this year? I doubt it, but it is nice to see that your fantasy assets that are Bengals are not dead just because Joe Burrow went down for the season. Tee Higgins has had a terrible contract year and hopefully, he can salvage at the end here, but he has continuously underperformed or not played at all. I have seen Higgins hit the waiver wire in a few shallow leagues I am in. That is not something I thought I would see this year, but when you have only gone over 10 fantasy points twice all season it is understandable as to why. Tee is not a player I would want to start right now, and he does not have great semi or finals matchups either. This year as a whole has been a weird one for the Bengals, but hopefully, they can rally to help a few fantasy managers win a title this year.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 15.

Overperformer: Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers)

TPRR: 8.5%
Result: 3 receptions, 91 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.6 (half-PPR)

Anytime a player has over 10 fantasy points on under 10% TPRR, my PRS calculation always will see that as a performance that was a bit over their skis. Most of QJ’s points came from a 50-yard bomb from backup quarterback Easton Stick. Yes, we have lost our prince Justin Herbert for the season with a broken finger on his right hand. It is honestly amazing how bad this season has been for quarterback injuries. We are now at the point where a third of the league is running out a backup QB, and somehow the games are still highly competitive. QJ has been coming on a bit as of late, but it has not been anything special for your team. He has had an uptick in production though over the past few weeks even if it did not really take much to accomplish. Hopefully, we see Easton target QJ a bit over these last few weeks and get him reps going into next season.

Quentin Johnston has arrived pic.twitter.com/gVtsChRPEq

— Chargers Country (@ChargersCountry) December 11, 2023

Underperformer: A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)

TPRR: 44.4%
Result: 9 receptions, 94 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.9 (half-PPR)

Not often do we see the “Underperformer” have more points than the “Overperformer” in this article. But, when there is a case such as AJ Brown on Sunday Night Football he has to be mentioned here. Garnering over 30% TPRR is beyond elite, but seeing over 40% is absolutely incredible. AJ has been balling out this year and he still put up an impressive stat line on Sunday, but with that sort of TPRR, he certainly could have hit 20 points. The fact that he wasn’t able to break 15 points with this sort of target share is the real sore spot for fantasy managers, especially with the Eagles playing from behind basically the entire game. Jalen Hurts does not look to be healthy, but the Eagles are finally done with their gauntlet of games and will hopefully get a bit rested before they look to make another Super Bowl run.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Parker Washington (Jacksonville Jaguars)

YPRR: 0.77
Result: 2 receptions, 27 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.7 (half-PPR)

Parker Washington seems to have a bit of juice and it is odd to me that we didn’t see him until Christian Kirk got hurt. He has not been a part of the gameplan until now and of course, that may be due to him being a rookie, but there have been numerous Jaguar wide receivers hurt this season so it is strange. That said, he has been playing well and he did get a solid chance on Sunday with 35 routes run. If you have room for him on your squad I would pick him up as they get Carolina in Week 16, but I would not start him this coming week.

Underperformer: Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants)

YPRR: 3.59
Result: 6 receptions, 79 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.9 (half-PPR)

Tommy Cutlets is on fire (NBA Jam rules)! This could be one of the weirdest storylines of the year, but it has been intriguing and these Giants players are playing hard for Tommy DeVito. Wan’Dale Robinson was the benefactor of the offense being able to move the ball down the field as he received seven targets from DeVito and gained 115 yards from scrimmage. I would not feel comfortable starting Robinson right now, but 3.59 YPRR shows that Wan’Dale is explosive and can produce when given opportunities.

Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward

If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.

Here are the Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 14:

I honestly am not sure how Jaylen Waddle stays in the top 24 of PRS. I guess it speaks to the fact that even great wideouts can have a down and inconsistent year, but maybe that is a sign that he is allowing us a good buy opportunity in dynasty. Deebo has shot up the PRS rankings over the past few weeks with his enormous performances, so now Brock Purdy has Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo balling out. That team is going to be hard to stop in the playoffs if they are healthy. But for now, it is our playoff time, we are the ones who need our teams to stay healthy, we are the ones who need to give pregame speeches, and we are the team no one believes in, so you know what? Let’s go out there and do what we must to win ourselves a ship!