Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 14 (Fantasy Football)

Tyreek Hill is the MVP. I understand that in today’s football, we are almost always going to give the MVP to a QB, but I would simply say this: if you took Tyreek Hill off the Dolphins, would Tua still be having the year he is right now? Would this team still have this explosive of an offense? Wherever you sit on the issue, I believe that it is unauthentic to say he isn’t a top-five option to win MVP. I will quit my tirade now and get back to why you are here. Let’s take a look at our advanced statistics again this week by looking at aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an update to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score).

Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Overperformer: Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers)

aDOT: 0.3 yards
Result: 4 receptions, 116 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 25.6 (half-PPR)

Now you’re a man…A man, man, man. Deebo Samuel decided to remind us on Sunday that he is indeed, a manly, manly, man. No stat better illustrates that than him having a 0.3 aDOT, but accruing 116 yards and two touchdowns. I’m not sure that I have ever seen a wide receiver have that sort of stat line with that low of an aDOT. Deebo was trucking Eagles and taking souls on Sunday. If Deebo is playing like that, Brandon Aiyuk is living in the intermediate, and George Kittle is doing his thing…this 49ers team is going to be nearly impossible to stop. I am not putting much stock into his low aDOT being predictive of his future weeks though, because Deebo has a chance to take any pass to the house at any time. Deebo has a chance to boom week his way to a fantasy winner this year down the stretch.

DEEBO SAMUEL RUNNING ANGRY
pic.twitter.com/mkbbvxWAXv

— PFF (@PFF) December 3, 2023

Underperformer: Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders)

aDOT: 25 yards
Result: 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 0.0 (half-PPR)

Poor Terry, per his words, was out there running cardio on Sunday. I sure am glad my dynasty league mate didn’t trade him to me a few weeks ago when I was searching for WR depth, that’s for sure. With Sam Howell having so many pass attempts this year and being a top-five QB in passing yardage it is sad to see Terry having such a lackluster year for fantasy. Sam is spreading the love throughout the team and it is keeping any single pass catcher from being a top fantasy option, unfortunately. It will be hard to keep shoving McLaurin into your lineup going forward with these types of performances, but I hold out hope that this next week he can be the squeaky wheel that gets the grease.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 14.

Overperformer: Brandin Cooks (Dallas Cowboys)

TPRR: 8.9%
Result: 4 receptions, 45 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.5 (half-PPR)

Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP, CeeDee Lamb is playing like a top-five wide receiver in the league, the Dallas Cowboys are rolling, and Brandin Cooks is continuing to be a consistent WR play each week in fantasy. Although he didn’t have a great TPRR number last Thursday, he still was able to produce for your fantasy squad yet again. Cooks has the potential to be a huge fantasy playoffs piece down the stretch with the Cowboys playing the Bills, Dolphins, and Lions. These games have the potential to be high-scoring, so Dallas should be slinging the ball around and Cooks should continue to produce for your team.

Underperformer: Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)

TPRR: 38.1%
Result: 5 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.7 (half-PPR)

Jaylen Waddle has been underwhelming all year and it’s a darn shame. His underlying stats have been great all season, but he hasn’t been able to turn those statistics into a great fantasy season. One reason for this is he only has three touchdowns on the season. Another reason is the Miami Dolphins run game has been superb this year and accounted for 22 touchdowns as well. I would love for Waddle to blow up down the stretch run of the fantasy playoffs, but until he does, it will be hard to have faith in it.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams)

YPRR: 1.05
Result: 6 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.9 (half-PPR)

Matthew Stafford has been markedly better than I, as a Rams fan, thought he would be this year. A lot of that has been due to the fact that Les Snead hit a home run with Puka Nacua in the fifth round. Sean McVay is also scheming up great game plans for this Rams offense and much of that this year has been without Cooper Kupp, who has been out multiple weeks due to injury. Fortunately for fantasy managers, Kupp was on the field a ton this past week and ran 37 routes. Hopefully, that is a sign of things to come and anyone who was able to survive all of his injury weeks and make it to the fantasy playoffs will be paid off late with a few boom weeks to win folks championships. The Rams are fighting for a playoff spot, so managers won’t have to worry about Kupp sitting out of nowhere.

Underperformer: Dontayvion Wicks (Green Bay Packers)

YPRR: 2.69
Result: 3 receptions, 43 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.8 (half-PPR)

The Packers really passed on the wide receiver position in the first round multiple years in a row and somehow found yet another gem of a receiver late. Wicks has looked explosive, and with Christian Watson going down, he is in line to run more routes. If he gets the work, I believe he can produce for managers and payoff any waiver wire add you place on him. Wicks is more of a deep league add at this point as you most likely would rather have Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed right now, but Wicks really could kill it over the next few weeks if given ample opportunity. With the YPRR numbers he has been producing this year, he could be a great deeper starting roster flex over the next few games. Dontayvion “John” Wicks, yeah I think it has a decent ring to it!

Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward

If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.

Here are the Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 13:

Back to the rant I started with, Tyreek Hill is unreal. Okay, promise that is all. While we are here, take a look at Mr. Nico Collins! He has been at the top of my PRS calculation all year, but with Tank Dell going down to an unfortunate injury, he has a real chance to be a league winner with the Texans playing a poor Titans secondary twice in the fantasy playoffs. Mike Evans is inevitable (great call Andy), Chris Olave finally breaks into the top 24 where he belongs, and Michael “Pitty City” Pittman continues to be Gardner Minshew‘s favorite target. If you need a win this week to get into the playoffs, best of luck. If you are already in, enjoy this week of football. And if you are in the toilet bowl, don’t get last! Favor and fortune to you all, and may the fantasy gods bless us this week with health and good luck!