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An Epic 2023 Phillies Primer in Advance of Opening Day

March 30, 2023
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For the city of Philadelphia, watching the Phillies last October (and into November) was like binge watching an entire season of a hot new show that everyone was talking about.

While the season finale was one that ended in heartbreak and not euphoria, it left everyone in eager anticipation of season two.

The calendar was kind to those who endured a short and mild winter and there is a buzz that has emerged louder and above the usual spring din of NFL draft prognostication, Sixers-induced agita, and Flyers Twitter fan fury that we haven’t heard around these parts for more than a decade.

That’s because after a short hiatus of just 144 days, the new season of Phillies baseball drops Thursday afternoon, and we will emphatically embrace every new episode over the course of seven months.

This was the shortest offseason in Phillies history. Never before has one season ended as late as November 5 and started as early as March 30 the following year, yet here we are. Several of the characters have changed for this season, but that doesn’t make the Phillies any less interesting. In fact, it can be argued that they are infinitely more attractive to watch now then they were when we last left them, which was just two wins shy of their third world championship.

And boy are they a hell of a lot different than where they were on Opening Day of 2022, slightly less than one year ago against the Oakland A’s.

On that day, Joe Girardi was the manager and Rob Thomson was a bench coach, already resigned to it being his final year before heading off into retirement.

On that day, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura, and Matt Vierling were all in the starting lineup.

None will be this season:

On that day, the roster also included Johan Camargo, Mickey Moniak, Ranger Suarez, Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, Corey Knebel, Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia, Nick Nelson, Christopher Sanchez, and Damon Jones.

None of them will be in the dugout in Arlington, Texas to take on the Rangers Thursday either.

While Harper, Suarez, Nelson, and Sanchez are recovering from injuries and Rhys Hoskins is still with the team, but will miss the season after tearing his ACL in one of the final spring training games, it’s pretty amazing how much turnover there can be in less than 365 days for a pennant-winning team who is still considered a championship contender.

That’s what makes these Phillies so fascinating. That’s what makes them must-watch TV on 162-of-184 days between tomorrow and October 1st, with the hope for a month of bonus episodes immediately thereafter.

They’re good. They’re fun. They’re ideally Philadelphian. There is a connectivity with this group of Phillies and the city they play for that goes beyond the beloved teams that dominated the sports landscape from 2007-2011. It’s a relationship that is even warmer than what the Eagles provided last year, or 2017, or in their own great run from 2000-04.

It’s the kind of relationship that really only two teams have ever built before in this town – the Broad Street Bullies of the early 1970s Flyers and the one-off, but beloved lunatics that were the 1993 Phillies.

Before anyone comes at me for being crazy elevating the Phillies ahead of the Eagles in what is widely accepted as a football town, I’m not doing that. Baseball is just easier to romanticize for people because it’s an almost every-day function, where football has a weekly build-up to game day. All of the emotions of football are experienced in one day and rehashed the next morning before looking ahead to the next week.

In baseball, the emotions are reset daily and can either end up being the same as the day before or be a whole new experience the next day. And when a team is good enough to make you believe that it’s worth your emotional investment every day for seven months, and not just on Sundays, it becomes more rooted in the fabric of our daily lives.

These Phillies earned that attention last October, and they’ll have it, during both the good and the bad for the entirety of this season in hopes of another #RedOctober.

To get there, though, the Phillies are going to have to be even better than last season, and that’s a challenge in a top-heavy National League and a stacked N.L. East Division. It’s safe to say that the Phillies, Atlanta Braves, and New York Mets should be three of the top 10 teams in baseball. Maybe even top eight or top seven.

It’s going to make for one hell of a race, and if the Phillies can hang close enough until Bryce Harper returns, sometime between May 25th and June 20th (Forget the All-Star break, that is now Harper’s window), there’s no reason the Phillies can’t win the division. Do I think they will? Spoiler alert for below, but no. But I do think they are right there until the end and I do think there will be October baseball again.

As I break down the roster and expectations for the season below, and give you my prediction for the Phillies and the MLB for 2023, grab your popcorn and settle in. This season could be even better than the last.

The Opening Day roster

The Phillies head west to take on the Texas Rangers for a three-game series starting Thursday and concluding Sunday (off day Friday) and then head North to the Bronx for three against the New York Yankees before coming home for Opening Day at home against the Cincinnati Reds on April 6th.

The Rangers are definitely improved and have high expectations of their own after signing Jacob deGrom and bringing in Bruce Bochy as their manager and the Yankees are, of course, just like every other year, considered a favorite to be in the Fall Classic, but the Phillies play 20 of their first 23 games against teams that were .500-or-worse last season. The schedule quickly gets tougher after that, so a good start for the Phillies is important. It’s even more so, considering they will be missing both Harper and Hoskins.

The Phillies still have a deep lineup,  two top-tier starting pitchers and a vastly improved bullpen and should be able to manage their way to a good start.

Here’s who they’ll rely on in 2023:

Catchers: J.T. Realmuto and Garrett Stubbs

Realmuto is still considered the BCIB (best catcher in baseball) and will be incredibly important offensively to try to pick up some of the lost offensive firepower. He’s done it before. Last season during the two months Harper missed while recovering from a broken thumb, Realmuto slashed .336/.381/.638 with an OPS of 1.029 and 23 extra-base hits, including 10 homers and 33RBI. He will be even more valuable this season as teams are expected to try and run more with the new rules in place (larger bases, limited pickoffs allowed) and, well, you should never run on Realmuto.

As for Stubbs, he’s the perfect backup catcher. He plays with his hair on fire when given the chance, and when he’s not playing, he’s a firecracker in the dugout. He brings boundless energy and is a beloved teammate and creator of popular Spotify playlists. And, he celebrates with teammates better than anybody, including with Darick Hall on the final play of Spring Training:

Infielders: Darick Hall, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa, and Josh Harrison

Hall will have a huge spotlight thrust upon him, as he will be asked to fill Hoskins’ shoes at 1B. And he will get the opportunity to do so. The question is, how long? When I was down in Clearwater and we were talking about the final bench spots before Hoskins’ injury, Thomson said, “When it comes to Hall, he has to hit, right?” In other words, we’re not carrying him on the roster for stellar defense and baserunning. But, man, does he have raw power. Hall had a nice spring for the Phillies, slashing .296/.397/.611 with an OPS of 1.008 with five homers and 11 RBI in 63 plate appearances. Probably the most impressive details of note were his strikeouts vs. walks (10 Ks, 9BBs) AND how he did against left-handed pitching. It was a small sample size for sure, but in 20 plate appearances this spring vs. lefties, Hall was 6-17 (.353) with 3 walks and only three strikeouts (there was a dinger in there as well). Considering the Phillies really shielded him from left-handed pitchers in his time in the majors last season (1-for-12), this is good news. If he hits, he’ll keep the job all year. If he doesn’t, the Phillies will find an alternative. They won’t wait long either – he has to hit early.

Stott was a great story last season. He made the team out of Spring Training and after a brutally slow start, He turned it on and was a catalyst for the Phillies in their memorable run. After the All-Star break Stott slashed .276/.331/.404 for an OPS of .735. That, alone, over a full-season would be great. The Phillies expect even more progression though in his second full season.

Turner is the guy the city is going to fall in love with from day one. Fans are already juiced about him based solely on his World Baseball Classic performance, where he led Team USA with five home runs, including this grand slam to help vault them past an undefeated Venezuela in the quarterfinals:

After the game, he called it the biggest hit he’s ever produced. Here’s betting he tops it a few times in his Phillies tenure, one that will start with him in the MVP conversation. He’s a trendy pick by many, and why not? He’s a five-tool ball player and will be a sparkplug at the top of the Phillies order.

Like Stott, Bohm should see an increase in production. He added muscle to his gangly frame and it showed this spring with him driving the ball with authority on amore regular basis. In my estimation, this is the guy who will be the biggest difference maker offensively. Would a traditional stat line of .283-24-88 look good to you? Yep, me too. It’s where I think he’ll be when all is said and done on October 1st.

Sosa is another guy who can be a revelation. One of the things I noticed about him when I was in Clearwater was how early he was working. I’d get to the ballpark at 8 a.m. and he was already out on the little half field outside the main entrance to the park either stretching or fielding with coach Bobby Dickerson and an assist from Larry Bowa. And he obviously was hitting the cages as well, as it translated to some excellent Grapefruit League numbers (.364/.444/.682 1.126OPS), all while they were trying him out as an outfielder as well. Expect Sosa to get a bunch of at bats this year. Thomson is going to find a way to play him a lot.

Harrison is a quality bench player who can play multiple positions in both the infield and outfield, who also has some swagger and brings some juice to the clubhouse as well. As a 35-year-old veteran he is an ideal fit into this Phillies puzzle.

Outfielders: Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos, Jake Cave, and Cristian Pache

Schwarber is the unquestioned captain of this team. He’s the voice in the clubhouse that commands the most respect. He’s an unrivaled leader. And it’s all positivity. He’s not an old school hard ass screaming at teammates to hold them accountable. Instead he’s a likeable teammate who is always bringing out the best in his teammates through encouragement, energy, and excitement with his majestic power.

I think you will see more of Schwarber as a DH, especially until Harper gets back, which will allow the Phillies to have a better defensive outfield while not losing anything further offensively. In fact, until Harper returns, we are going to see how the Phillies had originally planned to utilize the DH a season ago before he hurt his elbow.

Marsh, like Bohm and Stott, is another player the Phillies expect improvement out of offensively – and that’s despite having pretty solid offensive numbers after coming over to the Phils from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe. Marsh hit .288 with a .773 OPS for the Phillies in 2022, but like Hall and Stott, they limited his exposure to left-handed pitching. The hope was that he would hit lefties better in 2023, and he will have some opportunities to do so, but there’s a reason the Phillies were looking for a righthanded outfielder who could play centerfield. Marsh was just 2-for-13 against lefties in Grapefruit League action with three walks and four strikeouts. Dalton Guthrie had an incredibly slow start to his spring  and wasn’t much better against lefties (3-for-13). Guthrie’s second half of the Grapefruit League season was significantly better than the first half. Guthrie started 1-for-20, but finished 11-for-49, meaning he hit .349 over the final two weeks of spring. Still that wasn’t enough, as the Phillies made this last-minute trade Wednesday afternoon:

To make room on the 40-man roster, the Phillies placed Hoskins on the 60-day IL.

Pache was once a can’t-miss prospect for the Braves, but he hasn’t ben able to hit a lick at the major league level. I mean, it has to be bad if you can’t make the Oakland A’s, right?

That said, his defense is elite. I mean, he’s possibly the best centerfielder in the sport defensively. He was being compared to Andruw Jones when he was the starting centerfielder for the Braves on Opening Day of 2021. But, he quickly lost the job and was jettisoned to Oakland after Atlanta won the World Series. In 2022 he slashed .166/.218/.241 for an OPS of .459 in 260 plate appearances for the A’s.

Now, he’s a Phillie, and he’s still just 24-years-old, so who knows, maybe some sessions with hitting coach Kevin Long make him more than just a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch runner. To his credit, he did hit well this spring for Oakland, going 13-for-43 (.308). It’s an interesting flier, but if nothing else, he vastly improves the outfield defense.

Late in games, The Phillies can slide Marsh to right, have Pache in center and Jake Cave in left. That’s a really strong defensive outfield.

Speaking of Cave, he was the Phillies’ Spring Training MVP. It’s hard to remember anyone having as good a Spring Training as he did. He was 24-for-52 (.462) with 10 extra-base hits, and an OPS of 1.327. If you include his four walks, Cave was on base every other plate appearance.

Expect to see him getting a lot of early season action against righties in the field with either Schwarber or Castellanos as DH.

Castellanos is going to have the shortest leash of any returning Phillie in the eyes of the fans. They see one down season and assume the guy stinks.

Here’s a bold prediction, Castellanos will post this for the season for the Phillies this season – .280/.360/.470 with an .830 OPS, 27 homers and 90 RBI to quiet the critics. His new approach in Spring Training was very good. He walked 11 times in 62 plate appearances. His 11 walks were the most of any Phillie. It’s not that anyone should suddenly expect him to walk 100 times in 2023, but if he’s seeing the ball that well, then he’s not going to chase many pitches out of the zone, which was his undoing in 2022. So, pitchers are going to have to put the ball over the plate, and, well, that’s where he does his damage.

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Bailey Falter, and Matt Strahm

Here’s the one area where I’m a little worried.

Nola and Wheeler are fine. They are both aces and considering their age, it’s hard to find a better duo at the top of a rotation in baseball. Yes, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are surefire Hall of Famers at the top of the Mets’ staff, but they are closer to the end than their prime, even though both are still sensational. I might take Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier in Houston, because they are even younger, and Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff in Milwaukee are a hell of a tandem, too. But Nola and Wheeler are right there.

A pitching coach working for a major league organization told our Bob Wankel that he believes Wheeler is the Cy Young winner this year. If that comes to fruition, the Phillies are in great shape.

It’s after those two where there is worry. Walker has stretches where he is untouchable and stretches where he is… well… not.

I was fine with Walker as a No. 4 assuming Suarez was going to be there to be right behind Nola and Wheeler, but now he’s going to start the season on the I.L. and although an MRI showed no damage in his elbow, the fact that this is lingering and he’s already been shut down twice makes you wonder if it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

I’m OK with Bailey Falter, and he has been working hard on his changeup to add a third good pitch, and I think he’s OK for the back of a rotation, but Strahm is an emergency starter now and is better suited for the bullpen, where the Phillies expected him to be to begin the season. The Phillies are going to be extra cautious with prized prospect Andrew Painter, who likely won’t see big league action until after the summer solstice and the next prospects – Mick Abel and Griff McGarry – aren’t major league ready yet.

The Phillies lack real starter depth, and made a small trade with Colorado to get T.J. Zeuch this week and drop him in Lehigh Valley along with Michael Plassmeyer, if the Phillies need another starter before any of Suarez, Painter, Sanchez or Nelson are ready to return. Keep your fingers crossed.

Bullpen: Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Connor Brogdon, Andrew Bellatti, Yunior Marte, and Andrew Vasquez

This is going to be a major strength of this team. They can bring so many different weapons at you in so many different scenarios. There’s three lefties. They all throw hard and nasty. Thomson called Marte “filthy” this Spring. We already know what Dominguez and Alvarado can do. Kimbrel is going to be a Hall of Famer. Brogdon is great, when he pitches confidently. Bellatti is an underrated strikeout arm. Even Vazquez, who is a journeyman who likely wouldn’t have made the team to start the season had Strahm not been needed for the rotation, had a strong Spring and could give the Phillies multiple innings in relief, if needed.

As for the closer, Dominguez will get the majority of the opportunities, but nothing is set in stone. Thomson likes to match up. So Alvarado, Kimbrel, Soto, and, yes, even Marte, are all going to get those high-leverage chances at some point.

The others: Harper, Sanchez, Nelson, Guthrie, Scott Kingery, Kody Clemens, Plassmeyer, Erich Uelman, Luis Ortiz, etc.

Aside from Harper, those eight names are guys who will likely get callups at some point this season. Kingery is the only one not on the 40-man, so they would have to make room for him. Guthrie we talked about. Clemens is the next man up if Hall falters at first base. Plassmeyer is the next starter. Ueleman and Ortiz are bullpen arms on the 40-man. Sanchez and Nelson are hurt, but have experience and value both as starters and long relivers.

If a catcher is needed, Rafael Marchan is on the 40-man, but he’s likely to start the season on the I.L. I believe Aramis Garcia is ahead of John Hicks on the depth chart. Neither is on the 40-man roster.

Other non-roster players who could be selected at some point with a corresponding move could be utility man Weston Wilson, centerfielder Jordan Qsar, who they acquired last week from Tampa, Zeuch, as an emergency starter, and bullpen arms McKinley Moore and Andrew Baker.

And finally, there’s Harper, who I have predicted will return June 16th for a three game tune-up in Oakland before a big six-game homestand the following week against the Braves and Mets.

With the Phillies not putting him on the 60-day IL, and Dave Dombrowski hinting that there’s a chance he could be back before 60 days are up, One has to wonder if he can be back for an equally important Braves/Mets six-game set on the road May 25-June 1?

Either way, Harper will be a massive addition to the lineup whenever he returns, and could ultimately be a difference-maker in the division race.

The Prediction:

If you listen to Crossed Up, then you already know that I picked the Phillies to finish 91-71 this season. Even without Hoskins for the year and Harper for two months. Most projections forget to include the possibility for improvement of players. This season, those players are plentiful on the Phillies. Bohm, most certainly, Stott, Marsh, and yes, Castellanos, when compared to last season.

And man, how are people having a hard time seeing improvement from the Phillies when they added a guy who I, too, believe is going to win the NL MVP in Turner?

The bullpen is also infinitely better, and the Phillies won’t have to wear out their most reliable guys because they have depth behind them, meaning they’ll frequently be more fresh.

If the starting pitching behind Nola and Wheeler are simply average, the Phillies top 90 wins. If Suarez comes back and is himself, and if Painter is able to give you 100-120 innings later this summer and be as good as people think, they maybe could win more.

I don’t have them finishing ahead of the Braves, but they can. They’re that good. And, they’ll be in the playoffs. Book it.

NL EAST

  1. Braves 96-66
  2. Phillies 91-71
  3. Mets 90-72
  4. Marlins 80-82
  5. Nationals 64-98

NL Playoff teams:

  1. Braves
  2. Padres
  3. Brewers
  4. Phillies
  5. Dodgers
  6. Mets

I actually readjusted my NL West predictions slightly, because I believe the Diamondbacks and Giants are going to be better than I originally thought. I have the Phillies and Dodgers both at 91 wins. I gave the Phillies the tiebreaker, just so there can be more playoff games at the Bank.

AL Playoff teams:

  1. Astros
  2. Blue Jays
  3. White Sox
  4. Mariners
  5. Yankees
  6. Rays

There’s more competition in the AL than the NL. The Cardinals are the only real threat to make the playoffs outside the six teams I listed above. The Giants, Cubs and D-Backs (in that order) will hang around for a bit, but not really threaten. However, in the AL, I can see the Guardians, Twins, Rangers and, yes, the Angels also sneaking in ahead of Tampa. The Orioles are on their way, but they will take a step back this season, and the Red Sox could be interesting, if everything breaks right for them. But, I think it’s a top-heavy league, and really, only 3-4 teams who can get to the World Series.

Taking home the trophies

NLCS: Braves over Phillies

ALCS: Blue Jays over Mariners

So, I ultimately don’t have the Phillies getting back to the World Series, but they CAN get there. They’re one of four teams in the NL who have a shot and frankly, right now the Braves are the only team I would say are clearly ahead of them. So, a return engagement is not far-fetched.

World Series: Braves over Blue Jays

It’s revenge for 1992, and the Braves second title in three years, spurring the debate as to who is the better team of this era – Houston or Atlanta?

The post An Epic 2023 Phillies Primer in Advance of Opening Day appeared first on Crossing Broad.

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