AL & NL MLB Cy Young Award Odds, Picks and best bets for 2023: Strider powers Braves

Riding the momentum of a thrilling World Baseball Classic, Major League Baseball surges forward with the beginning of the 2023 MLB season. Opening Day is set for March 30, so it’s a pretty quick turnaround for all of the stars who participated in the WBC. 

With the season rapidly approaching, we are breaking down each of the major MLB awards and today we’ll be talking about the AL and NL Cy Young awards. Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara took home the awards for each league last year, and I would expect that we get a pair of new winners this season. This will be a fascinating market to watch all season long, so let’s break it all down and look at our best bet.

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American League Cy Young odds and predictions

Jacob deGrom (+550)
Gerrit Cole (+700)
Dylan Cease (+900)
Shohei Ohtani (+1100)
Alek Manoah (+1200)
Carolos Rodon (+1400)
Kevin Gausman (+1500)
Shane Bieber (+1600)
Luis Castillo (+1600)
Shane McClanahan (+1600)

AL Cy Young best bet: Shane McClanahan (+1600) 

The primary concern for backing McClanahan in this market is the shoulder injury he suffered at the tail end of last season. However, this was an injury that he did not need to undergo a procedure for, which means all he likely needed was to rest and recuperate in the offseason. The Tampa Bay ace was outstanding for the vast majority of the 2022 campaign, posting a ridiculous stretch from May to August where he held an ERA of 1.27 and a WHIP of 0.69. McClanahan has an electric fastball that can reach triple digits at points, and his breaking stuff is equally as effective. The Rays’ best pitcher was the odds-on favorite for the Cy Young at multiple points last summer, and he figures to be in the mix for this award once again in 2023. I like the value we’re getting with McClanahan at this number. 

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National League Cy Young odds and predictions 

Sandy Alcantara (+500)
Corbin Burns (+550)
Justin Verlander (+700)
Max Scherzer (+850)
Spencer Strider (+1000)
Zac Gallen (+1100)
Max Fried (+1300)
Aaron Nola (+1300)
Zack Wheeler (+1600)
Julio Urias (+2000)

NL Cy Young best bet: Spencer Strider (+1000) 

Sandy Alcantara had a phenomenal season a year ago, but it’s hard to replicate that kind of dominance needed to win the Cy Young for the second straight year — especially on a middling team like the Marlins. The same goes for Corbin Burns, who certainly can put up the statistical profile but likely won’t have the advantage of playing for a playoff team. That can’t be said about Spencer Strider, as the young ace is playing on a Braves team that should be the favorites in the National League.

Strider was in the top 4 percent of all qualified starters in xERA, xWOBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage and expected batting average in 2022, as the rookie routinely dominated opposing hitters. Not bad for a rookie! I’m expecting 200+ strikeouts once again this season from the young phenom, while his whiff rate and low walk rate should remain consistent. With the favorites for this award either playing on mediocre teams or presenting injury concerns in their older age (Verlander, Scherzer), there’s value on Strider at this double-digit price.

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