As time moves closer and closer to kickoff, the guys continue with their divisional breakdowns. Today, Andy, Mike, and Jason are tackling the AFC East. As we continue the series, a reminder – this is a general overview of the teams. The guys will discuss offseason changes from 2022 to 2023 (i.e., players, rookies, coaches), give an overview of the offense last year and how it COULD function in 2023, and give some of their takes on win totals and who could win the division.
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Here we go!
Let’s Get Divisional – AFC East
Last year the AFC East was a reasonably good division, but when it came down to it, the Bills owned it. They were number two in PPG and number two in defense in PPG allowed. All three of their losses were within three points.
Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Even with the offseason Diggs high jinks, the Bills’ offense should continue to move full steam ahead. The core pieces and the opportunity are still there and coupled with head coach Sean McDermott entering his seventh(!) year, the season still looks bright. The Bills fleshed out the RB room with Damien Harris and Latavius Murray and drafted a first-round TE in Dalton Kincaid. We know it’s tough for rookie TEs to make an impact fantasy-wise, but he can still positively impact QB Josh Allen.
Jason reminds us of Gabe Davis, who could be a solid value this year, but be willing to cut bait if he doesn’t deliver. The Bills also have WRs Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty, who could snag some targets from Davis. RB James Cook is still in the backfield, and the Bills’ RBs have averaged the fourth-fewest FPPG and fifth-fewest red zone carries since Allen became the starter.
Vegas predicts 10.5 wins for the Bills this season.
Miami Dolphins (9-8)
Miami was a good team last year and was 8-3 in games where Tua started and finished, but they were 1-6 in all other games. This team is solid if they have Tua, but Tua is scary. When active, he led the NFL in yards per attempt and tied Mahomes for the highest TD rate. And he has the targets – there is much to like about their opportunity this year.
The Dolphins drafted itty bitty De’Von Achane, who Mike loves, but he ranks Jeff Wilson as the highest RB in that room. It might be TD roulette with Miami RBs once again this year. The start of the season is rough, with Miami playing teams in the top 10 of pass defenses from 2022 in the first four weeks.
Vegas predicts 9.5 wins for the Dolphins this season.
New England Patriots (8-9)
Welcome to the upside-down. Heading into 2023 with Warren Sharp’s most difficult schedule, it’s hard to believe in a world where the Patriots can find a way out. They were 32nd in rush success rate and 31st in expected points per play. There is hope that Bill O’Brien can help turn things around, but with the small amount of talent in the pool, it isn’t easy to see it get done. Rhamondre seems to be your only solid start here. Players like Ju-Ju, DeVante Parker, and Tyquan Thornton and not bringing sexy back, as Andy mentioned, and are only worth a late-round dart throw.
It is probably best to keep most of the Patriots at arm’s length this fantasy season.
Vegas predicts 7.5 wins for the Patriots this season.
New York Jets (7-10)
The Hard Knocks Boyz close out this divisional breakdown. The Jets are completely rebuilt offensively, not to mention their stout Robert Saleh-led defense – it is going to be must-see TV. Aaron Rodgers is now in town, and if you get a bare minimum competence at the QB position with the offensive tools he has available, Andy believes a Super Bowl run is possible. Garrett Wilson had the most targets last season by a rookie since Anquan Boldin in 2003, and he is poised for a great season this year, and add in Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman, and weapons abound.
Whatever you believe about the Jets, remember they have a brutal start to the year against Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and Kansas City.
Vegas predicts 9.5 wins for the Jets this season.
Andy, Mike, and Jason agree that Buffalo should win the AFC East.
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/analysis/afc-east-divisional-podcast-recap-for-2023-fantasy-football/
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